Chariot Share Discussion Threads

[gdasinv2] 10/8/2009 10:27

OIL is bullish, This is very undervalued and cheap share price at 19p. Loaded a lot, worth around 49p one of my friend MM advised me

[andonis] 10/8/2009 08:57

Ya right but remember to trade what has worked which is the 100ma and 200ma. when those cross which has not happened yet and could happen within a month say then chances are trend has trully reverses.
You will be bored to trade 100ma and 200ma I 'd rather day trade..more exciting. But trend is your friend and we maybe in a trend reversing situation, in fact the 50 and 100ma have confirmed it just the 200 ma which is stronger. One can do the pension funds long term like this.... safer??? if you have any left.

[tpaulbeaumont] 10/8/2009 08:52

yes alot of the cross-overs are weak, but if you trade them as they happen, you dont know which will be weak until your looking at them years later :P

[andonis] 10/8/2009 08:34

With the 100ma and 200 ma one clearly see the signals buy in 2003 an sell early in2008 and it is nearly now a buy signal.

[andonis] 10/8/2009 08:04

well those extra turning points you show are weak as they lasted a while with small crossover range I think. Try 100ma and 200 ma and you can see that we are very similar to the 2003 min situation. There is no perfect single signal.

[tpaulbeaumont] 10/8/2009 07:49

..if you miss the other signals along the way

[andonis] 09/8/2009 17:18

Clear enough Long Term Signals...

[andonis] 09/8/2009 14:45

John Maulding....

[eriktherock] 09/8/2009 14:00

andonis, You're free not to profit from the trade mate :-) That article, would you let know date and author ? tia.

[andonis] 09/8/2009 10:49

Erik...........found this 4u


Japan's population is shrinking, and the number of workers per retiree is rising. Japan has the highest ratio of debt to GDP in the developed world. And that debt is growing by 7-8% a year, and does not include local debt. Interest rates cannot go lower. Savings are falling rapidly and will not be able to cover the need for new debt issuance, by a long shot. Within a few years, because of the aging of the population, savings will go negative. Social security payments are rising. GDP is shrinking, and export trade is off about 30-40%, depending on the industry. Machine tools are down 80%!

If rates were to go up by 1%, let alone 2%, over time Japan's percentage of tax revenue dedicated to interest payments would double to 18% and then to 40% and then just keep going up. It is conceivable that it will take 100% of tax revenues in less than ten years, at the current trajectory. Why? Because Japan is going to have to start to compete with the rest of the world to sell its bonds. Who but the Japanese would buy a Japanese bond at 1.3%? From a country that is rapidly going to 200% of debt-to-GDP? Doesn't really seem like a smart trade to me. And as the data shows, the ability of the Japanese consumer to buy more debt is rapidly waning.

The Japanese government is coming to a crossroads with no good exits. Cut the budget drastically in the face of a deflationary recession? Monetize the debt and let the yen go the way of all fiat currencies? Can someone say Zimbabwe? Increase already high taxes in a very weak economy?

And yet the yen has been getting stronger over the last month. It is now at 92 to the dollar, up from 120 just two years ago. Why would a country with such bad fundamentals have such a strong currency? Shouldn't the yen be a screaming short?

Let me offer two speculations that are mine alone. First, it is well-known that the Japanese are very involved in the reverse carry trade. That is, since they can't find yield in Japan, they convert to another higher-yielding currency for income. So, maybe the retirees actually need to spend some of that money they have outside of Japan to live, so they have to convert to yen.

Second, Japanese corporations are getting hammered. Could it be that they are bringing yen home to pay for current transactions like rent and payroll? Japanese corporations dependent on exports desperately need the yen to fall, yet the central bank can't seem to engineer a falling yen. I wrote about five years ago that the Japanese Central Bank has to rank as one of the most incompetent of all central banks, because they can't even destroy their own currency.

But I think the central bank is going to figure it out. If they do not monetize the debt, rates will have to rise over time (say the next 2-3 years), and that is most definitely a problem. Monetizing the debt would mean the yen would fall in value, which is something they actually want to happen. How much monetization? When? I don't know, and I doubt they do. If I were the head of the central bank or the government, I would not sleep easy.

Japan is the second largest economy in the world. There is a rule in economics: "If something can't continue, then it won't." Japan can't continue down this path. All the trends are going against them. Sadly, Japan is going to hit the wall, maybe some time in the next few years. This will be very bad for the world, as they have financed much of Asian growth. They do in fact buy a lot of world goods, and their buying power is going to fall. This is going to mean fewer US and European jobs. Not to mention fewer jobs in the countries that are Japan's neighbors.

And unless we change things in the US, this will be us in less than ten years. As in hit the wall, serious depression, etc. I am hopeful that we can actually get our act together. But then I am an eternal optimist.

[andonis] 09/8/2009 09:33

Yes cheap Yen good 4 Jap exports but the US have done a poor job of this manipulation ...Oh well ........I dont trade the Yen Erik so best of luck........... ;-)

[eriktherock] 09/8/2009 09:23

Guys, don't forget that back in December last year the Japanese finance minister said (indirectly) that they would sell Yen in support of the Dollar as their strong (relative) currency was hurting exports. Many 'experts' at the time expected this manipulation, if one can call it that, to kick-in around USD/JPY 87.
I'd say that the charts indicate the same, so we have some fundementals to support the technicals as well as the busy resumption of the carry trade albeit I don't really understand that. I'm just a simple country lad :-)
tpb, always nice to read your contributions, especially when constructive, much appreciated.

[andonis] 09/8/2009 07:22

I will not be surprised to see in the future a new dollar issue with 10 or 20:1 of present dollar value.

[andonis] 09/8/2009 07:17

Possible longer term? Mind you I dont know a reason for strengthening the dollar. Unless the japs do a worse job themselves. But manipulation is probably an answer..

[andonis] 09/8/2009 06:55

Yes I knew it went over the resistance line and Erik new it. It may stay over it or oascillate (go over and come back below) around it. It is too soon to know for sure. But the fact that it is over it is a good sign and I agree with you on this. Overall I concluded being positive for going forward dont you think?

[tpaulbeaumont] 09/8/2009 06:31

yes you did ando, for the first time ever :) long may it continue.

[andonis] 09/8/2009 06:26

tpaul: You added this picture a few times. You made your point and I tried to reply to you as I would to anybody without adding my opinion about your personality. Grow up.

[tpaulbeaumont] 09/8/2009 06:24

im impressed, a reasonable response :P well the reason i say the fibs were erroneous is...




... both the blue and red fibs have been drawn looking for retraces going up, and both fibs have already been broken to the upside. This is enough for me to conclude the market isnt interested in them. teh market would have to make a lower low than 87.25, then start going back up for them to be of use again. imo of course. plus, the way youve drawn them is upside down, the 78.6% fib should be the 23.6% fib, theyre not the same reversed. but thats not that important, theyre not that different, the main issue id have is the markets already gone through them :)

[andonis] 09/8/2009 06:21

Based on the above chart anybody would expect at the 9425 some rest and retrace. But the money they keep pumping in is huge and nothing is normal. So rules are there to be broken I guess...Let the market speak and good to those who can follow it well trading it.

[andonis] 09/8/2009 06:16

2points:
The 1043 if erroneous then the ADVFN tool is not working. Perhaps you mean I should have taken it to end in the lowest low?

The last chart label yes u r right it is extreme. But it is not wrong yet........ and allows rising higher being bearish. The labeling allows resting at the higher level of 9650 ish.
Truth is the price went over about 50 points the 61.8% resistance line shown below. This is not imo confirmation of the inverse H&S started taking place and that the this is zooming into the 10k just now. Time will tell but anyway even if it retraces at this level a spike is missing imo.

[tpaulbeaumont] 09/8/2009 05:36

the fibs in #1043 are erroneous.

so now in your last chart adonis, you again have your infamous 5th wave extension extension :) perhaps the most controversial labeling anyone could ever try and use. good luck.

[eriktherock] 08/8/2009 16:29

andonis, re: USD/JPY Top man. Much appreciated. Interesting how yesterdays breakout from the recent channel intersected the downtrendline drawn through the April & June highs. Hmm

[andonis] 08/8/2009 12:01

Having evaluated the strength of the DOW I expect that this scenario is also still in the cards. .......

[andonis] 08/8/2009 08:36

So Erik, I like your position just watch the resistances....
you had 20 TD from low to this position and 26 CD (2x13) so far. A correction is not impossible.....as short term may have a few days consolidation as below...but at those levels.........
well keep an eye on the markets and......Best Luck Be Rich .......Andonis