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CNIC Centralnic Group Plc

0.00 (0.0%)
08 Dec 2023 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Centralnic Group Plc LSE:CNIC London Ordinary Share GB00BCCW4X83 ORD 0.1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.0% 123.20 0.00 00:00:00
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
123.20 123.60
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
- O 0 123.20 GBX

Centralnic (CNIC) Latest News

Centralnic News

Date Time Source Headline
04/9/202308:24ALNCNews*CentralNic has changed name to Team Internet Group
04/9/202308:23UKREGCentralNic Group PLC Update on Ticker Change

Centralnic (CNIC) Discussions and Chat

Centralnic (CNIC) Most Recent Trades

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Centralnic (CNIC) Top Chat Posts

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Posted at 17/8/2023 07:43 by adamb1978
cyberbub -

Yes, agreed. Getting to a say 12x multiple I dont think would be unreasonable and assuming we do that next year and using the forecasts which Rivaldo posted above leads to a c.240p share price. It would also take FCF yield to around 7% based on my figures - that's not expensive at all, but feels fair.

CNIC just need to keep plugging away...getting some growth, being tough on the cost base and throwing off cash.

Posted at 16/8/2023 21:25 by adamb1978
No problem Grant, and good to consider the bear cases as well as bull. Keeps you grounded.

There's often, I find, in tech many catastrophic downside scenarios which you can come up with, such as someone deciding to produce something similar and making it freely available. You then though need to think through all the reasons why it wouldnt happen - why would that party do that, is there an economic case for them to do so, would customers take that product etc etc

I dont think this will ever be a high multiple company, but whether you value it on a PE, EBITDA, FCF yield or whatever basis, I think its worth at least 200p within 2-3 years.

re consolidation: I think its an area where, given the gross margins, you are a consolidator or consolidatee, and there isn't a placid state where nothing happens for a prolonged period. So I thikn your suggestion where CNIC get acquired is perfectly plausible and its made more likely given there's a large financial investor who won't be a long-term holder. Now that the price has recovered somewhat, I'm ok with that outcome given that putting a premium on the current share price gets you towards 200p

Posted at 14/8/2023 07:58 by davebowler
H1: Returning value to shareholders

The company grew EBITDA strongly and expanded Adjusted EBITDA/ Gross profit margin through operating leverage. Cash generation was solid and is expected to improve in H2 2023. The company is using its rising cash balance to buy back shares and return cash to shareholders. We forecast average adjusted share count falls by 9% and Adjusted EPS rises by 18% in 2024. This strong performance is not factored into the shares’ forward metrics of 5x EV/ Adj EBITDA, 7x Adj PE and 15% FCFF yield in 2024, in our view.

H1 results: The company delivered 16% yoy growth in Adjusted EBITDA to $44.6m, driven by high operating leverage. Whilst gross revenue grew 18% yoy in H1 2023 (pro forma: 14%), Adjusted expenses reduced through the period from $24.5m in Q1 2023 to $22.1m in Q2 2023 due to vendor rationalisation and efficiency initiatives. As a result, Adjusted EBITDA/ Gross profit margin rose to 48.9% in H1 2023 from 47.0% in H1 2022. We expect expense management and the benefit of operating leverage to continue throughout H2 2023.

Net debt rose to $68.2m from $56.6m at the end of 2022, resulting in Net debt/ Adj EBITDA rising to 1.0x from 0.9x at the end of 2022. Net debt would have fallen by $20.8m if we exclude the impact of share buybacks ($13.6m), dividends ($3.6m) and deferred consideration payments ($15.2m). Cash generation was lower in H1 2023 due to increased investment in growth and bonus accruals. Adjusted operating cash conversion was 94%, down from 110% in 2022. The company expects cash conversion to normalise to nearly 100% for the remainder of the year.

Outlook and estimates: The company expects to trade at least in line with current market expectations for the full year. We conservatively keep our 2023 estimates unchanged and forecast 7% Adj EBITDA growth in 2023. Our forecasts assume H2 revenue grows 8% over H1 2023, whilst H2 on H1 revenue growth was 14% in 2022. We expect the company to continue benefiting from operating leverage with Adjusted expenses down modestly in H2 from H1. We forecast 6% sequential growth in Adjusted EBITDA in H2.

Importantly, CentralNic is aggressively buying back shares and accelerating Adjusted EPS growth, whilst introducing a dividend. In H1 2023, the company bought back 5.7m shares and the EBT purchased about 4m shares at a total cost of $13.6m (£10.7m). The company’s repurchased shares have not yet been cancelled and remain part of CentralNic’s share count. Furthermore, the company expanded its second share buyback programme by £30m to £34m on 3 July 2023 and CentralNic had remaining authority for £27m of buybacks at the end of H1 2023. Assuming a repurchase price of 131p, the remaining authority represents 20.6m shares or 7.4% of current share count. We expect the full impact of this year’s share buybacks to show through in 2024, where we forecast Adjusted weighted average share count falls by 9% and Adjusted EPS rises by 18% (to 21.3p) and net debt to EBITDA falls to 0.2x from 0.8x at the end of 2023.

Valuation: We believe CentralNic’s strong Adjusted EBITDA growth, high cash conversion and strategies to return value to shareholders are not reflected in current valuation multiples. Shares trade at only 5x EV/ EBITDA, 7x PE and 15% FCFF yield 2024, whilst the company has delivered a strong H1 and potentially higher future returns.
Posted at 14/8/2023 06:33 by rivaldo
Very strong H1 results this morning.

With 11.37c adjusted EPS in H1, CNIC are well on track to beat Zeus's forecast of 21.3c EPS this year, which Zeus themselves say is conservative.

Cash flows remain terrific, if not quite as high as previously, and are expected to normalise higher again in H2 - CNIC would have reduced net debt by almost $21m without the buybacks, divi and deferred consideration.

CNIC themselves state they're trading "at least" in line with expectations, setting up a beat for the year.

I note an increase in the mentions of AI in the statement.......

CNIC remain exceptionally cheap imho given the cash flows, low rating, digital expansion potential etc.
Posted at 11/8/2023 10:49 by cp42kx07
FWIW...Since announcing the the share buyback programme on 15/05 CNIC has acquired 8,425,204 shares at an average price of 118.6532.There have been 64 trading days, only 3 of which saw no buybacks (22/05, 12/06 & 27/07).Average spend per trading day (excluding no buyback days, i.e. 61 days) £163,881.56.Average spend per trading day (including no buyback days, i.e. 64 days) £156,199.61.Total spend £10,137,382.53.Allocated amount £34 million.Balance unused £23,862,617.47.At the buyback rate / average price since 15/05 this equates to a further 152 trading days.However, I am confident that the actual number of days will be considerably less based on a much improved share price.E&OE!
Posted at 28/7/2023 09:42 by rivaldo
Following the H1 update Zeus have raised their EPS forecasts for this year by 2% and by 12% next year.

They now see 21.3c EPS this year, rising to 25.1c EPS next year.

In summary:

"H1 update: Walking the talk

CentralNic provided a solid H1 2023 update, giving the company confidence in delivering 2023 results at least in line with expectations and to continue its share buyback programme. Gross revenue grew c. 31% organically in the LTM to end of H1 2023, with strong performance and market share gains across all business lines. Adjusted EBITDA/net revenue margin was steady and in line with our full year estimate. Adjusted cash conversion was 89% and is expected to improve in H2. Net debt was higher in H1 due to increased share buybacks. At the current share price, we expect material share buybacks to continue.

We raise our 2023 net debt estimate, lower share count and thereby upgrade Adj EPS by 2% in 2023 and 12% in 2024. We expect continued strong earnings performance to drive CentralNic’s low multiples (2023: c.6x EBITDA, c.8x PE) higher."

"Outlook and forecast revisions:

Strong trading in H1 2023 gives the Board confidence that full year results will be at least in line with market expectations. H1 2023 gross revenue is about 48.0% of our full year 2023 estimates, compared to 46.8% in 2022 on a pro forma basis. We leave revenue and profit estimates unchanged. However, we increase our net debt forecast due to increased share buybacks, discussed above. Cash outflows for share buybacks in H1 2022 was $13.7m, already near our original full year forecast of $14.8m.

Given the company plans to continue aggressively buying back shares, we raise our cash outflows for share buybacks and our year-end net debt figure by $38m to $76m. We lower our 2023 weighted average share count by 5.9m to 269.7m, assuming shares are purchased evenly throughout H2 2023 at the current share price. We lower 2024 weighted average share count by 24m shares to 244m, reflecting the full impact of share buybacks in H2 2023.

As a result, we raise Adj EPS by 2% in 2023 and by 12% in 2024. We expect net debt/EBITDA to remain low at 0.8x in 2023, broadly unchanged from 0.7x in 2022.

Valuation: The shares have risen 15% over the last month but remain attractively valued at c.6x EV/ EBITDA, c.8x Adj PE and c.13% FCFE 2023."
Posted at 05/7/2023 18:17 by tole Group – Heading From 115p To 130p And BeyondBy Mark Watson-Mitchell 05 July 2023 7 mins. to readCentralNic Group – Heading From 115p To 130p And BeyondIn under two weeks we will be seeing the CentralNic Group (LON:CNIC) announcing its half year results.The company describes itself as the global internet platform which derives recurring revenue from privacy-safe, Artificial Intelligence-based customer journeys that help online consumers make informed choices, as well as from the distribution of domain names. I am looking for the Interim accompanying statement to indicate that the company is continuing to grow both its revenues and its profitability in the current year to end December 2023 and then driving further ahead.At the current 115p, trading on 7.25 times price/earnings, I consider that the group's shares are extremely attractive in front of the Interims being published on Tuesday 18th July.I see them breaking through 130p fairly soon and then heading upwards again to trade in the 150p/160p price range.Fast-Growing European businessIn March it was declared that it had been recognised as one of the fastest-growing companies in Europe for the second year in a row, following the Financial Times' seventh annual FT 1000 report.The group was listed among the top-250 fastest-growing companies in the report published by the Financial Times in partnership with Statista, and among the top-50 fastest-growing Technology companies in Europe.Impressive CAGR Of 78%CentralNic has enjoyed a compound annual growth rate of 78% over the past 9 years, since its IPO on AIM Market in 2013, taking it from $4m in revenues to over $750m today.In 2022 its organic growth was 60%, leading to an overall 77% revenue growth.The BusinessThe London-based AIM-listed company is involved in driving the growth of the global digital economy, it does that by developing and managing online marketplaces allowing businesses globally to buy subscriptions to domain names for websites and email, helping to monetise their websites, and to also acquire customers online.Its core growth strategy has been in identifying and acquiring cash-generative businesses in its industry with annuity revenue streams and exposure to growth markets and then migrating them onto the group's software and operating platforms.It provides tools to entrepreneurs, enterprises and Governments in virtually every country in the world enabling them to build, secure and monetise their own part of the internet.The CentralNic Registry is a globally recognised registry services provider. It innovates and licenses its proprietary registry software while operating its own registry platforms.It also empowers other registry operators to run independent platforms and powers a myriad of domain extensions including country code Top Level Domains, generic TLDs, second-level domain registries and brand TLDs.The group's flexibility is unrivalled, configuring a solution tailored to Registry Operator's needs, ranging from software-only licences to complete registry management and distribution.For over 27 years, the group's robust in-house Domain Name System has powered domain extensions and assures the stability, security and resilience of the domain names supported by CentralNic.On a sales per business basis its Online Marketing side accounted for 78.9%, while the Online Presence division was some 21.1%.On a sales per region basis in the 2022 trading year, Europe accounted for 83.5% of sales, North America 9.0%, the UK 1.0%, while the Rest of the World takes in the 6.5% balance.The market for its services is enormous, worth some $60bn for Online Presence, for domain names and e-mail, and $600bn for Online Marketing, for customer acquisition and traffic.Continuing To Build Its PartnershipsCentralNic has partnered with Microsoft to provide it with access to Bing's portfolio of advertisers, which should provide potential long-term upside as the company builds another high growth, traffic conversion business around Bing, while complementing its existing business with Google.The group's Online Marketing division is planning to introduce products to help it source traffic directly, while reducing its gross costs and thereby expanding its gross margins.The same division has recently expanded its product comparison lead generation business to France, which is the second largest European market for Amazon, its key partner.At the end of May the group announced that it had been selected as one of only two firms named as a supplier on Crown Commercial Service's Network Services 3 framework under Lot 1d for Critical Domain Services.The Crown Commercial Service is an Executive Agency of the Cabinet Office. It supports the public sector to achieve maximum commercial value when procuring common goods and services. That is seen as a significant milestone for the group, underlining its strategic trajectory and continued growth.Big Share Buyback ProgrammeThe group has declared that:"Looking forward we will review our approach to cashflow deployment within the business and expect a greater focus on returns to shareholders versus M&A."That has previously allowed the company to successfully execute its mergers and acquisitions agenda, while at the same time improving its net debt position.It was underway with its second £4m Share Buyback exercise for 2023 but a surprise announcement on Monday morning indicated that the group is jacking that up to a significant £34m or 10% maximum of its equity.This has two effects – by reducing the number of shares in issue and thereby increasing the earnings per share in the process.Max Royde And Kestrel OpportunitiesAs a matter of interest, as the group was engaged upon its buyback, its non-executive director Max Royde was also in the market for more stock.Royde is currently managing partner at Kestrel Partners, an investment management company specialising in business-critical software companies.He co-founded Kestrel Partners in 2009 and is a fund manager of Kestrel Opportunities.Prior to Kestrel he was a managing director of KBC Peel Hunt, running its technology franchise.He has over 20 years' experience focusing on the technology sector.Kestrel Partners holds 66,668,166 shares in CentralNic, representing a 23.57% stake and the biggest holding in the group's equity.Management CommentCEO Michael Riedl stated that:"We are excited to see CentralNic's rapid progress on its journey to become a world-leading online marketing platform, helping online consumers make informed choices.Our business strategy continues to deliver outstanding results.We look forward to achieving exceptional results and performance in 2023 and beyond." The EquityIn total there are some 288,660,084 shares in issue, of which 5,752,675 shares are held in Treasury, leaving pure Voting Rights on just 282,907,409 shares.After Kestrel, the other large holders in the equity include Inter.Services (12.07%), Slater Investment (10.00%), Maitland Asset Management (4.98%), Chelverton Asset Management (4.97%), Erin Invest & Finance (4.86%), CentralNic Employee Benefit Trust (3.95%), JTC Private Banking (3.56%), Schroder Investment Management (3.34%), and Canaccord Genuity Wealth (2.87%).Broker's Views – Target Prices 180p To 350pThe last bit of research that I saw from analysts at joint broker Berenberg showed estimates out for the year to end December 2023 for $782m sales, $90m EBITDA and 18.73c earnings.The year to end December 2024, they estimate, will see revenues rise to $854m, creating $99m EBITDA and 21.44c earnings per share.The Berenberg Price Objective Is 250p A Share.However, very much more bullish views come from analyst Bob Liao, at the group's NOMAD and joint broker Zeus Capital, he has estimates out for $825.5m revenues in 2023, EBITDA of $91.8m and earnings of 20.8c per share.For 2024 his figures suggest $868.9m revenues, EBITDA of $97.3m and earnings of 22.4c per share.Looking further forward to the 2025 year, he goes for $921.2m revenues, EBITDA $104.5m and earnings of 24.3c per share.At Edison Research, analysts Max Hayes and Katherine Thompson, are looking for $833.7m revenues this year, $94.4m EBITDA and 20.1c of earnings.For 2024 they see $909.6m sales, $103.0m EBITDA and 22.5c of earnings.Latest analyst forecasts are within a range of $771.8m and $833.7m for FY23 revenue and $90.9m and $97.8m for FY23 EBITDAOf the three brokers analysts that follow the group the Highest Target Price was 350p, the Lowest Target Price was 180p, with the consensus average being 265p per share.My View – Break To 130p And Then 150p+This £327m capitalised business is 'a real money machine', it is highly cash generative.CentralNic's expense base is stable, which should allow continued revenue growth to expand margins.It is worthy of a significantly higher market rating than it has currently.The group had an outstanding start to the year, achieving its best-ever first quarter, so I look forward to a positive Interim statement within the next fortnight.I remain a great fan of its annual recurring revenues and its massive global cash generation.It has a proven business model and is totally scalable as it grows strongly.Looking forward to the forthcoming statement I am hoping that it will bring about some upward regrading of estimates by brokers and the market generally.As I have stated before – 'Value will out' and that will happen with CentralNic, these shares, which touched 121p after the big buy-back news earlier this week, are definitely for buying at around the current 115p.At that level they are only trading on just 7.25 times price-to-earnings – which is exceptionally cheap for such a fund generator, and just half of the UK market average rating.Once the shares have bounced back up through the 130p level, I see them returning to trade in the 150p – 160p range which was peaked last December.
Posted at 24/6/2023 09:03 by adamb1978
Knowhow, Diesel,

I wouldnt over analyse it. Sentiment has been against smallcaps for almost a year now and many decent performers (operationally) have seen their share prices so nowhere. I dont think there's any underhand or hidden things at play with CNIC, other than sentiment both at a market level and company level. The company level sentiment will improve with each Q of decent results. Kestral won't take CNIC private but will help get decent value. Just need patience I'm afraid

Posted at 08/6/2023 08:46 by king suarez
Shares held in Treasury (bought back but not cancelled) don't have voting rights, nor dividend rights, so will make any dividends cheaper for CNIC in future.

Don't think Treasury shares count towards mcap calculation so should lower the mcap if share price doesn't rise. The shares could potentially be sold back to market in future without the need for an official equity raise - so company could potentially make a profit on them at a later date if sold above the buyback prices.
Posted at 15/5/2023 09:23 by adamb1978
Lots of companies are seeing share prices come off when they put out ok-to-decent results at the moment, so actually a flat share price (before the broker wades in with the SBB) isn't a bad result for the day so far
Centralnic share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange

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