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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central Asia Metals Plc | CAML | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.00 | 3.54% | 205.00 | 16:29:05 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 205.00 | 199.20 | 207.00 | 205.00 | 198.00 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| MINING |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 21/2/2024 10:02 by zho >>Are SCSW still bullish on CAML?>>I think it was Momentum Investor (described as a sister publication of SCSW) that was +ve on CAML. Their last coverage appears to have been in May 2023, and you can see the start of the article at |
Posted at 08/2/2024 07:24 by gosoftly7 A very good write up in last weeks Investor Chronicle on CAML. To summarise it says what a fantastic operation Kounrad has been and how much more valuable CAML would have been without Sasa.Basically Sasa has been a very, very poor investment. |
Posted at 14/12/2023 12:01 by mondex From Seeking Alpha, Avi Gilburt: Time For Copper To ShineAs the developing nations of the world endeavor to replace fossil fuels with renewables, the demand for copper is expected to increase dramatically over the next decade. But with economic stagnation in China, and concerns of an economic slowdown in much of Europe and possibly the US, copper prices have become as dull as an old penny. The price of the red metal has fallen from $4.70 per pound in March 2022 to roughly $3.70 today - a decline of about 20%. From a fundamental perspective, there's an expected shortfall in copper supply that's likely to put significant upward pressure on prices. But soft pricing may persist for several months as production is expected to outstrip demand through the end of 2023 and 1Q2024 (Source: International Copper Study Group). From there, several industry analysts are anticipating a supply squeeze. For example, Goldman Sachs foresees a supply shortfall that will drive the price of copper to $4.50 per pound by late 2024, and to more than $6.80 per pound in 2025. Concurring with this perspective, Max Layton, the Managing Director of Commodity Research at Citi, said he believes now is an ideal time for investors to buy as the price of copper is still muted on global recession concerns. The red metal has declined in price by approximately 26% from its all-time high of nearly $5.00, set in October 2021. According to Layton, copper could top out at $6.80 per pound by 2025, a jump that would "make oil's 2008 bull run look like child's play." Similarly, the consulting firm McKinsey & Co. is projecting copper demand to reach 36.6 million metric tons by 2031 while total available production is expected to be about 30.1 million metric tons. But let's also be clear about something else: The world is not going to run out of copper - not for a very long time, if ever. The problem is getting copper ore out to the ground and turning it into a saleable product. It takes on average about 16 years for a copper mine to go from initial construction to actual production. Add in lead times for exploration and permitting, and it can take far longer. For example, the largest known deposits for a development stage copper mine within the "lower 48" - the Resolution Mine in Arizona - have been under development for 26 years. This joint venture between Rio Tinto Group (RIO) and BHP Group Limited (BHP) has consumed more than $2.0 billion in capital, yet copper production will not begin for at least another 10 years. It's perhaps ironic that the greatest opponents to the project are often the same environmental groups seeking to eliminate the use of fossil fuels while demanding massive increases in solar and wind power projects, and the replacement of gasoline-powered cars with battery-powered versions. To achieve such goals, massive amounts of copper must be produced. Another challenge is that much of the "low-hanging fruit" of high-quality and easily accessible ore has already been picked. While there's a great abundance of copper ore around the world, most of it is lower-grade deposits that require more capital-intensive facilities to bring into production. This comes at a time when committed investment capital expenditures to develop new mining production have dropped by a startling amount over the past 12 years as shown in the chart below: Investors also may want to question the notion that we will ever become "fossil fuel free" sometime in the foreseeable future. Is the investment community being realistic about the outlook for such an energy transition? As noted by a report from S&P Global: "The challenge of meeting net-zero emissions by 2050 will be short-circuited and remain out of reach unless significant new copper supply comes online in a timely way…" Considering that only 3% of the world's energy is derived from wind and solar, it appears all but certain that "net zero" cannot be obtained at any time in the foreseeable future. And here's a fun fact: About 10% of the world's energy is derived from burning wood - three times wind and solar. While discussions on this topic often morph into political debates, |
Posted at 01/12/2023 15:52 by zho GoRozen have just released their 2023 Q3 summary. Well worth reading the section on copper, especially their reasons for concern over longer term prospects for the price of copper.“We have just returned from a week of traveling in Asia, and every investor wanted to discuss copper. The overall opinion was nearly unanimous: over the short term, investors are deeply concerned about a recession; over the long term, they are consistently bullish. We have the opposite view: we are incredibly bullish over the short term but are becoming more concerned over the long term as new technologies risk bringing on additional supplies.” |
Posted at 07/11/2023 10:42 by dougmachin Yep, as someone posted on LSE boards, the 13th September Q&As are worth listening to again, especially for:- Commitment to dividend - Capex - Life of mines Probably need your own IMC login. |
Posted at 15/9/2023 13:00 by kael Maintaining the div is great news am also very happy to see they are going for exploration. I thought this may be the case a while back, it makes sense in these markets whilst waiting for distressed companies to filter through. Clearly finding an asset at the right price for caml is difficult, with a very healthy cash pile this is a great move and could well open up a new chapter for CAML and will attact a new breed of investors. Looking forward to the updates on this front. |
Posted at 15/9/2023 11:43 by bozzy_s Thanks Zho, worked for me.Here's a copy / paste. Credit to Alex Hamer on Investors' Chronicle website: "Central Asia Metals (CAML) is successful in its niche of well-run brownfield operations that were bought at good prices. Management is now adding a new string to its bow: exploration. The company has looked for a third project for years after adding the Sasa mine to its original asset Kounrad in 2017. It is keen to keep shareholders updated on this process, too, telling them about 22 acquisition options reviewed in the first half and three site visits. Finding a happy price for these assets is the trouble, given the strong outlook for metals like copper boosting prices and current cost of debt making them less affordable. The exploration effort will be focused on Kazakhstan, where Kounrad is located. The present operations generated Ebitda of $49mn (£39mn) in the first half, down a third on the first half of 2022. This was largely because of weaker prices but higher labour and power costs also contributed. CAML is also in the midst of a transition underground at the Sasa operation to a new mining method, where tailings are used back in the mine to reinforce workings. This comes after a tailings dam spill at the mine in 2020. CAML will sling over 80 per cent of its free cash flow to shareholders for the interim payout of 9p a share, double the proportion from last year above its 30-50 per cent payout policy, although the timing of tax payments knocked the free cash figure. The payout is 29 per cent ahead of RBC's forecast. The company’s yield is way up given its weak share price, which has underperformed its basket of metals (a 21 per cent drop against a 3 per cent drop for the metals). Investors also met the higher interim payout with a shrug. We would add at this price. Buy." |
Posted at 06/8/2023 09:43 by zho Well spotted.Share tip: You could mine a rich seam with CAML Apart from having the cash for deal-making, CAML stands to benefit from strong future demand for its metals. Berenberg analyst Richard Hatch flags the miner as “among the lowest-risk, highest-yielding stocks of our coverage, yet it remains overlooked from a valuation standpoint. We would encourage investors to revisit the investment case of this quality name.” Buy. |
Posted at 26/7/2023 13:44 by caiman47 The fundamental problem with share buybacks in small to medium companies is the negative impact on liquidity. The real free float in terms of stock that actually trades is usually tiny. The liquidity tests imposed by institutional investors are fierce. |
Posted at 25/7/2023 11:24 by nchanning Classic badly informed UK investor . If a company buys back 10% of its shares outstanding you can create a synthetic dividend by selling 10% of your shares and you will be in the exact financial position as if the company had paid a 10% dividend . The only difference is that investors not seeking income are not forced to pay income tax if they wish to rollover their investment . If you have good management they are able to increase the buyback when they know the shares are cheap rather than blindly paying a regular dividend . Lord Wolfson at Next has provided a model example |
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