Cellcast Share Discussion Threads

[norbert colon] 18/7/2011 18:53

Davydoo. Yes, noted, Canaan paid $5.25m (£2.63m at dollar / pound parity at that time in 2007) for a similar size stake as CLTV own although the strategy change is a pivotal factor in any current valuation. Does anyone have any feel about who CAH are talking to in respect to fund raising for the proposed channel operations? I sense continued price weakness due to the known uncertainties but and content to sit and watch the story unfold. Be good to get some news flow.

[topgunns] 18/7/2011 14:45

CAH is effectively worth zero right now and maybe even negative because of the total unknown of profits, dilution and costs.

The UK business is only just making money and the last thing they said in the results was that margins were being eroded in the UK too!

[davydoo] 18/7/2011 09:32

Norbert I can see how you reached your figures, but remember what Canaan paid for their share of CAH in 2007, they werent buying on a multiple of profits, and I dont believe CLTV's eventual exit from CAH is going to come from someone buying the business/stake on a p/e calc. That works for mature businesses not a business like CAH, in new technology in an emerging market. I actually think any new investors in a fund raising, or the management themselves are going to want to lose CLTV as a partner for a number of reasons. As shareholders of CLTV I just want to make sure that the value of our CAH stake is maximised.

TopgunNS, you are quite right to highlight the risks of their changing strategy, but I believe that's reflected in the price already, and is part of the risk/reward calculation I made when investing here. If CAH had just had a repeat year, and not developed their business, then yes we may have a higher CLTV price now, as people do their p/e calcs to justify a higher price, but if CAH had stood still, it would risk not achieving a substantial future valuation which I am looking for.

[topgunns] 18/7/2011 09:13

Finally someone thinking with his head. I see what you're saying Norbert. But surely buying, promoting and operating their own channels is a huge unknown in terms of costs/profits.

[norbert colon] 16/7/2011 19:08

Guys. CLTV current market cap is circa £2.1m. It would appear CAH earnings for the next year will be in the range of £300k (assuming margins are not hugely eroded) so on the basis of a PE of say 15 which would not be unreasonable given its potential,would give CLTV's stake (35%) a valuation of circa £1.6m. This would value the rest of CLTV at only £500k. Thoughts?

[topgunns] 14/7/2011 15:23

Sad to see. The chart in the top right is abysmal. Below 2p coming soon.

[mon28shaila] 12/7/2011 16:11

davvydoo : Thx, that's almost same figure as kiop but no movement in share price Seems like MM's getting stock from some where, point is where or who?

[davydoo] 12/7/2011 16:05

Unforunately I wasnt able to make the AGM due to a holiday. I dont have my exact trading figures to hand, ive been a holder with varying holding levels for 2 years, but I would estimate approx 1.5m acquired since the results.

[mon28shaila] 12/7/2011 15:58

davydoo : That'a what i was trying to figure out when i was asking Lyonst how many shares he bought recently in open market during June and how come share price did not even blink. Perhaps you don't mind telling us how many shares did u buy recently which took u over 3% and also did you go to AGM this year? I wanted to but got held up else where.

When kiop bought abt 2m shares in open market end of 2010 share price almost doubled, so whats happening now.

[topgunns] 12/7/2011 11:44

Anyone able to give a convincing investment case based on some earnings? My current valuation with all the risk is 1-2p. But i'd be interested to hear an opposing view.

[davydoo] 12/7/2011 09:56

All mine were bought in the open market. I have the same question though.

[guru] 12/7/2011 09:26

We have had two holding announcements over the last few weeks, just curious to know where all the shares have come from? Were they private deals or bought on the open market?

[davydoo] 11/7/2011 11:39

yes Norbert

[norbert colon] 11/7/2011 11:25

Davydoo - are you by now any chance a major shareholder??

[davydoo] 04/7/2011 16:28

The 110k trade showing at mid price on lse this afternoon, and the 100k on PLUS were buys, as both were me as I added to my holding today.

[mon28shaila] 04/7/2011 15:22

Some1 mentioned CAH Q1 2011(Y/E Mar 2011) figures, but please do bare in mind that Q1 is always the weakest quarter due to Cricket mad India's "IPL" and this year it was double whammy,"IPL" and ODI World Cup, which will reflect on viewers tunning away from CAH programs.

[mon28shaila] 04/7/2011 12:07

Lyonst : NO problems I respect ur decision.

Kind Regards

Mon

[lyonst5] 04/7/2011 10:53

Mon, sorry i wont go into detail, but i was surprised at only one other shareholder and myself at the recent AGM.

[mon28shaila] 03/7/2011 23:31

Lyonst : Thank you for answering my questions. If its ok with you, ur opinion of the visit would be greatly appreciated and did u pay a visit recently or while back?

Kind Regards
Mon

[lyonst5] 02/7/2011 11:12

davydoo, ok got it.

[davydoo] 02/7/2011 10:17

Lyonst5 I've been buying a lot at the same time, so I wonder who's been selling?

[lyonst5] 02/7/2011 10:01

Mon, all shares bought on the open market, and yes have met with the manangement.

[mon28shaila] 01/7/2011 10:32

lyonst : how many shares did you pick up in June, whole 7.5m or small addition to ur existing holding and also did you buy it in open market or bought from some1? Without being, inquisitive, im just trying to work out whats MMs doing because early this year Mr J Cropper bought 2m shares in the open market and share price almost doubled also have you visited Cellcast and met with any of the management?

Regards
Mon