Cellcast Share Discussion Threads

[davydoo] 03/6/2011 14:23

Remember what Canaan Partners paid for their stake of CAH? that was 2007, so think about CAH now compared to then, and then look at CLTV mkt cap now, thats why im still happy to buy at this price.

[recto verso] 03/6/2011 11:16

They need to strike a deal with Galleon for online gaming in India.

Todays update from Galleon :

"Board expect to be in a position by the end of the year to demonstrate significant monthly profits, in particular from its Digital Operations in China."

RV

[lyonst5] 03/6/2011 11:12

Just looking at the past results and updates its seems that we could be on track to spawn a monster of a company in India. The past earnings and growth from CAH point to a lot of current inward investment. We could'nt really ask for more,as its a risk free venture from our standing, as Cellcast UK has made it very clear that there would be no further investment from the UK side.

Also the management are looking again at overseas ventures again, well i hope so, they must of learned a lot in the last foray into this area. The past years of cost cutting and reduction of overheads looks to me as we have a leaner and hungrier company than the past, that knows how to drive a profit from other shores. I guess India opened their eyes again to this.

mon28shaila, I first thought that the CAH profit was retained by CAH, but it is shown in the accounts. ?

The analyst, if you have time your opinion would be greatly appreciated.

[mon28shaila] 02/6/2011 15:03

What do they mean by this,"Given that there was no distribution by CAH during the year"??

Cellcast Asia Holdings

The group owned 37.5% of CAH at 31 December 2010, and its share of CAH's profits for 2010 was GBP282,000, a 37% decline on the prior year's GBP451,000. "Given that there was no distribution by CAH during the year", the carrying value of the group's holding in CAH at 31 December 2010 was GBP1 million (2009 - GBP692,000).

Thx in advance.

[topgunns] 02/6/2011 14:05

For sure. How are CAH gonna raise the cash? Sell more shares = dilution.
So not only are the margins getting smashed with uncertainty of future profits, but our percentage ownership of them will be diluted.

Anyway it's a disappointing day and i'm sounding ultra-bearish. So i'll leave it there for a few weeks.

[recto verso] 02/6/2011 13:56

Dilution ?

I agree with your views Topgun, can't see new investors coming on board here, at least not until the fund raising is complete in India.

UK market has consistently under performed, year-in year-out.

RV

[topgunns] 02/6/2011 13:52

Looked at the results again.

UK fully saturated and breaking even. Not impressive.

India needing entirely new route to market. No longer will it have primetime shows on leading channels. Instead it has to launch its own channels after fundraising. This brings great uncertainty.

Hence i can't see the share price going anywhere. I hope i'm wrong.

[lyonst5] 02/6/2011 13:34

Topgun, Its India what i think most of us are holding for, with only wanting the UK side to keep its nose clean.
Dont forget that Canaan Partners and the the remaining slice of CAH held by the employees to drive the business along at a pace. CAH could have just carried on with what they achieved in the Feb 2010 update, with $2m profit from $6m revenue. But they are not in this game to stand still, they have now achieved $15m revenue and building the business, I don't think Canaan Partners would allow and any idleness to get into any of their ventures. We can't forget what Cellcast UK and Canaan can bring to the table for CAH to succeed.
I'm of the opinion that CAH is working under operational silence until it launches its channels, then i expect all stops pulled out to show us what they are doing.

[topgunns] 02/6/2011 13:18

From around January 2010 there was hope of great profits in india transforming the business. Even at a 37 percent cut it would have been great. But now we are back to the same old story of funding and expansion with no profits. It's just disappointing all round.

[recto verso] 02/6/2011 13:02

Standing on the sidelines looking in, I would say that the only part of CLTV capable of producing profit is India. UK has continuously disappointed.

Indian profit margins seem to be under pressure.

Have you guys checked out Galleon (GON), huge potential in online gaming in China. Worth a look.

In fact CLTV should seriously consider online gaming in India.

RV

[mon28shaila] 02/6/2011 12:34

Reason they down play.....could it be they don't want someone to snap up the company at current low levels??????

[davydoo] 02/6/2011 10:42

If CAH need funding then perhaps a source of that funding, if equity based would want to remove an idle 37.5% shareholder and make an offer for it?

I've added this morning.

[topgunns] 02/6/2011 10:34

So tell me this. Why would the share price go up over the next six months. There are no drivers that i can see.

I think the hopes of 20p and 50p just disappeared as the margins have been smashed.

[lyonst5] 02/6/2011 10:09

The only bad bit in the rns was the $200k loss at CME. The UK side as never been better.

But they had to say "We do however expect some erosion of margins in the second half of 2011"

But then they say also "with a return to full year profitability in 2011."

??

As the Analyst commented in the past, they do seem to downplay their sucesses for whatever reason.

[topgunns] 02/6/2011 10:08

Sure but all i see is "funding" and "expansion". No profits.

I find the concept of holding for the next year difficult. News flow is rubbish and it will take a significant amount of time for "expansion" to lead to profits.

[topgunns] 02/6/2011 09:52

I don't really agree with the above.

Results say:

1 No more uk growth so more worldwide expansion

2 Reduced margins at CAH. Judging by the latest quarter it's getting worse and is running at a rate of lower revenue and lower profit for the first quarter

So i don't see any "profits". All i see is further "investment"

The share price has been smashed today in response.

[notaclue] 02/6/2011 09:36

Well revenue for the 2nd half of the year was 10.1 million with a profit after tax of around £200,000 and 0.2p per share so even if they sustain that then this year it will 400k profit after tax and 0.4p per share...remember none of the profit from CAH is in this as no dividend was distributed...any growth on top of this and well this could take off...you take your money you takes your chance...I'm staying put for now

[guru] 02/6/2011 08:39

Good set of results, CAH is investing heavily and growing very fast - in one of the major growing economies in the world - looks good.

[lyonst5] 02/6/2011 08:38

So we have got the UK side back to almost break even and CAH has increased revenues by 80%, im only surprised that with taking on 150 staff and the major investment going on in CAH, that CAH even broke even never mind a profit.
I could hazard a guess that CAH could have returned anything upto a $5m profit if it was'nt for the current investments in the business.

[lyonst5] 02/6/2011 08:16

Morning. Well i see a damn good set of results being dressed down by the management.

[sarge999] 02/6/2011 08:15

Hi all,very poor RNS in my opinion,i sold half my holding first thing at a small loss.GLA.

[lw425] 02/6/2011 08:09

rns guys. pretty much looks like a dead duck at these levels. that's the way i see it.

[trixter] 01/6/2011 08:28

Price hiked this am and a flurry of sales...strange!

[topgunns] 31/5/2011 19:18

Results could be anytime. New high or new low. Who knows.