Caza Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

[sleveen] 02/11/2015 13:27

My earlier post today:

Given today's date on that RNS extract, that would mean significant dilution at TODAY'S share price (my interpretation).

That was this morning when the share price was circa 0.45-0.5p

[1628386] 02/11/2015 13:26

Hi Buffy

If a new investor comes in, there needs to be an agreed 'subscription price' That may be above or below the current SP

A recent example was RRL where the subscription price was 45% higher than the suspended share price at the time.

My thoughts on CAZA are that the share price on 30/9/15 was around 1.6p (the closing price before the 1/10/15 announcement)

I am hoping that if a deal is to be done, they may use a subscription price around 1 - 1.6p

This would still constitute significant dilution as the existing equity was worth say $5m at 1.5p and so new shares to the value of $50m being issued would cause significant dilution.

Having said all of this, the market consensus clearly disagrees with me as the price has been pushed down .... but since when have I gone with the market consensus when buying or selling? ;-)

[mark10101] 02/11/2015 13:24

Buffy, it is all down to a what level of share price they lend against. If it was at 1p for instance it would be good news for share holders and result in a 300% rise. If it is at 0.1 then the share price has further to fall.

Management own enough to to make a punt on a better outcome than current share price. I am no longer in CAZA nor to I have any funds left for a punt given how the last year has panned out.....

[valentine] 02/11/2015 12:38

The broker let me have some Boil but reluctant to let me have any here. He stopped me plunging I'm last month..not sure he knows anything but can read demand better than I, perhaps

[buffythebuffoon] 02/11/2015 12:34

No plan B in the event the oil price dropped. That's the top and bottom of it.

Difficult to have one of course when debt is that high. Not the only company to suffer of course, but that's of little consolation. I really thought this was going to be my biggest winner since Soco.

Shame.... it was all going so well.

Buffy

[buffythebuffoon] 02/11/2015 12:19

Hi 1628,

I'm not sure how significant dilution can result in a higher price.

Buffy

[valentine] 02/11/2015 12:18

Was considering a punt but it can wait in hope I do better elsewhere. What has happened to all those rosy glow presentations by wmf and Randy Nickerson? Can't have truly gone down the panhandle, can it?

[miguelh21] 02/11/2015 11:28

praise the lord i got out these late last year. I had about £20 grand at the June/July 2014 peak. I could sense a fail in the WTI price at the time but did not go short WTI. Hindsight is a wonderful thing!

[bustedflush2] 02/11/2015 10:03

BUST very soon

[1628386] 02/11/2015 10:01

Nothing has changed since Friday .. apart from the share price that is.

DD ongoing is a positive as clearly they haven't walked away yet.

3rd Quarter results in two weeks so maybe an update then.

My rational for the 'punt' remains the same ... Will the dilution (if the deal goes ahead) be attached to a higher price?

I'll hold until the outcome is known....

[sleveen] 02/11/2015 08:04

For at least 10 month's they've been trying to sort something out to refinance Apollo.

Look's like still a mountain of DD and conditions to agree so suspension is very likely IMHO.

[bustedflush2] 02/11/2015 08:00

Bust very very soon

[gkp heros] 02/11/2015 07:59

The life support machine switch off has been extended. To allow investors from all over the world to be at cazas and PA's bedside

[sleveen] 02/11/2015 07:59

oilbuy

Given today's date on that RNS extract, that would mean significant dilution at TODAY'S share price (my interpretation).

[buffythebuffoon] 02/11/2015 07:43

As said in the last RNS. Nothing has changed but the extension end date.

Buffy

[buffythebuffoon] 02/11/2015 07:41

The damage has been done to the share price probably not worth getting out, even if you can.

Some brave soul may try shorting it, as the significant dilution pretty much confirmed by CAZA will relate to the existing market cap, not that from the halcyon days.

Thinking about it, I may just take a small short position for the hell of it. Those of you holding in spreadbets may care to consider forcing open a short.

Buffy

[balbains324] 02/11/2015 07:29

That was an excellent copy and paste job with just a few additional lines telling us about an extension until end November.

[suetballs] 02/11/2015 07:14

Discussions on the finance as expected are ongoing.
Will this be the second share that I have held that becomes valueless?
Suet

[oilbuy] 02/11/2015 07:08

If the Potential Transaction is consummated, it is likely to take the form of an equity investment in the Company which, given the current oil and gas commodity pricing environment, is likely to subject the Company's existing shareholders to significant dilution.

[kate dumpston] 01/11/2015 16:00

hxxp://guerillainvesting.co.uk/2012/01/21/exposed-the-multi-millionaire-super-injunction-see-you-in-court/

[buffythebuffoon] 01/11/2015 14:01

I can't see that any interested parties would be likely to leave anything for existing investors. The board of directors may be able to cut a deal as they offer something, but Mike Ford isn't exactly in the driving seat, is he?

Buffy

[mutantpoodle] 01/11/2015 14:00

I hope that you correct. but will it improve in time???

[sleveen] 01/11/2015 12:58

This statement from 31/3/2015 did seem all rather innocuous at the time:

However, cutting capital expenditures for drilling will eventually cause certain covenant violations under the Note Purchase Agreement (the "Apollo Note") with Apollo Investment Corporation ("Apollo"). As a result of this, our auditors have added the $45 million owed by the Company to Apollo to this year's current assets on our balance sheet, even though the Apollo Note is not due for repayment until 2017. This has resulted in a going concern note being included in the Company's 2014 yearend financial statements. As announced previously, the Company has reached agreement with Apollo on the deferral of the determination of finance and performance covenants under the Note from March 31, 2015 to September 30, 2015. This deferral provides the Company with added flexibility in determining its allocation of capital resources during this period of low oil prices.

Management is actively pursuing options to refinance and retire the Apollo Note and is seeking less expensive sources of capital, which might also allow further headroom for drilling, as circumstances allow. As previously mentioned, Apollo has been a supportive partner and, thus far, has worked with management to ease enforcement of certain financial covenants. We will continue to actively evaluate all options to find a suitable capital structure for the Company that is appropriate and sufficient to allow the Company to deliver on its stated strategy of achieving significant growth in reserves and production over the next two year period and, further, that we are utilizing the most cost effective option for the Company and the shareholders.

[valentine] 01/11/2015 12:39

I'll be back once they've sorted refinance or placing whatever. Mike Ford is not the type to stuff investors. POO is culprit. And that latter can only improve. IMHO.