Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[xclusive2] 21/4/2020 12:52

By well success, i mean 153 but it would be nice to see real progress on the deep campaign.

Re oil supply/demand, proration required in the States, actually across the world and more cuts to be made to balance out the equation. If that could be done, we'd see a much more rapid move north when demand picks up, not V shape but back into $40+ territory quicker than most believe. Nobody saw WTI going negative and not many are seeing us get back to sensible levels.

Buy oil cos with strong balance sheets and invest in size, take another look at year end.

Re our Casper, we'll plod along in this crisis and dependant on a deep success, the scale of the undervalued share price realisation will set in here and it won't stay low for long.

[dhb368] 21/4/2020 11:06

Well success Smarty? Guess we will find out soon but I hope so, even if all it does is act as a parachute. Hopefully they will take the opportunity to update us on any sale price being achieved. I presume that we are still selling locally under similar terms as before.


Most of the horrible stuff hitting the headlines is just traders getting burnt and will last as long as any high in CASP!

Nobody was actually selling oil at -$37. Traders have taken Brent Jun20 down as low as $18 today. Panicking or hurting (margin calls) from last nights WTI squeeze, but the spot price today is $28 and June20 Brent will quickly be back above mid 20s as long as the USA producers take their heads out of the sand and act later today. Always been the problem with the American model which says pump everything we can and someone else (OPEC) will have to adjust supply. It ignores the 'local oversupply issues we are now seeing.

June WTI is down to $12 which is more significant than last nights squeeze.
No where to put it. Gonna have to stop making it somehow, like today.

As smarty says, it is a great time to buy good oil that can pay their bills at $25 and/or have cash in the bank. In 12+ mths there will be fewer oilers around making much more money than they have for a long time.

[dhb368] 21/4/2020 10:25

I doubt it Jost, but never say never.

The problem with WTI is that there has been little cut in supply and a massive cut in demand. Railroad Commission of Texas were talking about it but nothing has happened. Trump is waiting for them to shut in for economic reasons which will always lag OPEC+ which can cut to balance world supply/demand.

FYI Railroad Commission of Texas meets again today to discuss options and proration is on the table and needs to happen IMHO, especially as there is nowhere to put it now.

The USA hardly exports any oil and has to import because a lot of their supply (WTI) is not ideal for Diesel etc. (corrections welcome)
This is why Trump has been reticent to add tariffs because it would have little effect on the needed imports and just drive up costs with no effect on the storage issues WTI has.

Brent futures expire on the last day of the previous month ie. June 2020 expires last working day of April.

[xclusive2] 21/4/2020 10:22

Never thought i'd see the day whereby announcing a well success was bad news !!

Much that most of the UK is Furloughed, businesses are trading and many of the people in my line of business are getting by but making preparations to take advantage of pent up demand that is there. Companies need to market themselves effectively, online, through Social Media etc but you can't beat targeted Direct Mail, especially whereby everybody is at home and they have time to read the good stuff before it hits the bin.

This is short term grief and the World Economy can't sit in neutral for much longer, the only fly in to ointment being Covid19 but if we're all sensible, we can hopefully manage future outbreaks and avoid the damage of a false start.

Buying oil now ? As i said yesterday, my daughter was on it early doors on RDSB and BP and put them away for a couple of years and hopefully a deposit for her first place.

TT

[maxim1999] 21/4/2020 09:23

Must be getting news this week. This is a great level to get in at long term. Sadly I have put in enough and average low enough now .Come on Clive.Less exciting times please

[jostrummer] 21/4/2020 09:20

could we see a similar flash for brent futures? any idea of the expiry's

[hallow] 21/4/2020 09:19

Get on with it Clive, you know what we are waiting for.

It's all taking too long.

Exciting times, I don't think so.

[jostrummer] 21/4/2020 09:19

brent now the same as our domestic price, still at least casp are used to these prices!

[swerves1] 21/4/2020 09:12

Correction from earlier post: I meant Brent (not Crude) for Caspian

[dhb368] 21/4/2020 08:52

Also I think with some types of well there is a chance that production may not return to old levels automatically when you turn the taps back on?

There will be transport/pipeline contracts/commitments in place etc, and especially in the USA there will be thousands of wells producing low quantities of oil and it would take months to get around to closing all of them in.
None of this avoids the fixed cost elements and don't who is making the decisions.

Stage 1 stop producing, stage 2 close HO and sell the asset because nobody will be financing a restart of shale production.

As for CASP, our day to day extraction costs are tiny so even if we do not cover overheads (and we do comfortably even with CE in dock) a small loss is better than a large one.

[control1] 21/4/2020 08:52

Don't worry, the BoE will step in soon (with funds from the Fed)...

[rutter] 21/4/2020 08:51

Expect this nightmare to continue until the lockdowns in the economic world are lifted. When cars and aircraft are driven as before. I hope that that's in 3 month's time

[johnwalton] 21/4/2020 08:44

Cash is king at the moment.

That rule applies to every business in the world.

Some major companies in the UK are going to go bust if we do not
get back to work pretty soon.

[control1] 21/4/2020 08:39

Great work team, you just gave MM's the perfect excuse to drop this....

[johnwalton] 21/4/2020 08:30

X2

I do not think that you can just turn the taps off and expect no costs
to be incurred.

To mothball will cost and to bring back on line will also cost.
In the downtime they will also have costs.

[control1] 21/4/2020 08:29

The crash relates to the oil contract that expires today, I suspect that they will still be feeding the local market at domestic rates...

[rutter] 21/4/2020 08:08

That's my point X2

[xclusive2] 21/4/2020 08:03

It's a crazy world and the oil glut will continue until demand rises, no other solution as cuts alone aren't the answer.Not enough storage, Cushing full, refineries turning oil away, tankers costing companies fortunes to store at sea, what a mess.Mothball it Clive and cut all cost for the sort term.

[johnwalton] 21/4/2020 07:30

At the moment we have a glute of milk.

Let's stop milking the cows!

[rutter] 21/4/2020 07:06

Mr Thicky hereHave I completely misunderstood the situation?? If oil is so cheap and that the storage tanks are full . So full that they are paying people to take it awayThen why don't companies simply suspend operations Stop sucking it out of the ground

[swerves1] 20/4/2020 21:14

The reason for big difference between Crude and Brent prices now:



Caspian’s is Brent!

[control1] 20/4/2020 20:45

Don't know whether anyone saw this but May contract us at MINUS, yes that's MINUS $37.63... ???

[dhb368] 20/4/2020 19:56

If your daughter does not see the good times there is no hope for the rest of us!