Civitas Social Housing Share Discussion Threads

[cwa1] 17/9/2021 16:43

19 million in the closing auction at a quid!

[saltaire111] 14/9/2021 23:38

I wouldn’t be surprised to see an opportunistic bid coming in for Civitas with the price at this level.

And at some point Shadyfall is going to take profit on its short position and move onto its next victim.

Salty.

[boll] 14/9/2021 14:00

I do wonder about these reports. In the case of Civitas they have assets being rented out with the risks being that their social housing not for profit tenant effectively guarentees to pay rent for x no of years in the future without necessarily making sure that the income to support these guarentees is in place. The uk gov website has numerous examples and very few of these tenants pass the uk gov regulations yet rents continue to be paid to Civitas and the organisations that pay the rent continue to exist because there is no other alternative. The Shadowfall investigations don’t really mention this from what Incan see yet they focus on related party transactions that weren’t disclosed without seemingly quantifying the losses to Shareholders by leaving out some of the costs against the income that has apparently been lost. When you look at the income thee is a rent roll of £49m and interest costs of less than £10m per the last accounts and an asset of property which is realisable at the end of the tenancy if not renewed so it’s difficult to see a real downside unless there is a property case. The ultimate tenants who are individuals will continue to pay and are supported by the government so the real risk to me is lack of growth in income or increased regulation. It’s difficult to see the existing government changing regulations so the only downside is in my view rental growth if the housing benefits do not increase. The individual tenants must have somewhere to live and there is an accommodation shortage both now and forecast

[salpara111] 14/9/2021 12:27

I got caught in one of these situations before and decided to hold.....that proved to be a costly mistake. In this case there is the reassurance of property asset backing, however I was wondering even before the latest news broke, whether there was the danger of an asset impairment coming down the line.
I have had this on my watchlist since the drop to the 115 level. I suspect there will be money to be made here but picking an entry point is a bit of a game of pin the tail on the donkey!

[fredfishcake] 14/9/2021 11:40

Past experience suggests that when Shadowfall attacks, it's best to sell straight away. There may or may not be any substance in their attacks, but they seem to be effective. I sold yesterday and may look back in a few months to see what's happening.

[toffeeman] 14/9/2021 11:34

Bargepole comes to mind - not looking to re-enter

[cwa1] 14/9/2021 11:21

Thought I was mugged yesterday for selling at just over-98 but now looking worse. What price would folk be buyers at now given any and all new information?

[gopher] 13/9/2021 22:29

I think this remains a sell. I posted on the thread at 77p a couple of years ago and fortunately sold when the premium became a little rich for my liking. There was no question of manager sharp practice in 2019. Will Wealth managers want to hold on to the stock? I think not.

[saltaire111] 13/9/2021 12:18

I’m hanging onto Civitas. The value of the shares is backed up with hard assets. The Directors have been naughty in buying property on the cheap but these companies have always done a bit of that.

Salty

[cwa1] 13/9/2021 10:57

I wouldn't worry ac1, the double/triple/whatever posts have happened to us all(active posters anyway) from time to time. No offence was intended in the replies to your posts I'm sure, just a bit of fun in dark times!

[apollocreed1] 13/9/2021 10:32

I'm not sure why my posts double or triple up. It's not done on purpose.

[cousin jack] 13/9/2021 09:48

Like CWA1 I have sold out. No point in taking the risk here when there are decent income producing shares elsewhere which are likely to be safer and less volatile.

[cwa1] 13/9/2021 08:10

FWIW I decided to ditch first thing this morning. I had hoped that CSH would have issued a strong defence first thing and the fact we haven't heard a peep disconcerts me a little. Thought I was getting mugged at 98ish pence, and probably have been, but at that price it was a modest loss to take as I foresee a lot of volatility ahead here. Good fortune to those that remain

[calaban] 13/9/2021 01:32

You can access the article from the author's twitter account (I found the link on shadowfall's site). Essentially Civitas bought operated assets, and then sold on the operating part of the company. In the interest of balance, I believe that the operating compant profit figure in the ST article does not include rent (as these were owned and operated assets) and therefore is not directly comparable. Civitas, of course, do not operate, only lease out. The two directors concerned took/owned a stake in the company that bought the rights to operate. In my view, this stinks, but Civitas still has a price.

[skatersav] 12/9/2021 23:57

I can summarise: undisclosed related party transactions in which Civitas sold operating businesses to an Isle of Man company owned in part by Civitas directors. They never disclosed the Related party nature of these deals and it looks like the deals may not have been particularly attractive for Civitas…. Also, the housing associations that sit on the other side of some of Civitas’s lease agreements are apparently in trouble. But that last point doesn’t matter. The directors are seemingly crooked, end of story. No position, yet.

[brwo349] 12/9/2021 18:25

It's behind a paywall. Can anyone summarise the Times article?

[cousin jack] 12/9/2021 17:38

The article in today’s S.Times highlighting allegations by ShadowFall about the way Civitas and it’s directors operate is going to put a spotlight on the company for the foreseeable future. Could be a tricky day on the market for the shares tomorrow.

[cwa1] 06/9/2021 16:37

Impressive volume again. Seems to have become a trader's plaything for some reason. over half a million in the uncrossing trade at 102p. Strange stuff

[cwa1] 06/9/2021 14:43

Same as post 128, etc., if it saves anyone else checking up on it

[kev0856153] 06/9/2021 14:25

regulators could knock social housing dividends
hxxps://citywire.co.uk/investment-trust-insider/news/numis-regulator-could-knock-social-housing-dividends/a1544009

[badtime] 05/9/2021 22:44

Or they bought back in three times at the same price

[bothdavis] 05/9/2021 17:53

or a stutter.....

[cwa1] 05/9/2021 15:19

Repetition :-)