Carrs Mill. Share Discussion Threads

[greenslug] 23/10/2006 08:20

How much energy is used in production of fertilizers?

[0rb1t] 23/10/2006 08:03

That sounds similar to Asian Citrus reporting a 20% increase in fertilizer prices:

"consumption of raw materials rose with higher production volume and increased
production costs with unit costs of fertiliser and pesticide increased by around 20% to 25%."

Can't see how the markets would be connected as I would have thought one of main costs for fertilizers are transportation. Inorgainc fertilizers contain trace elements but these quanities must be so small that the increase in commondities would not affect the overal price.

[scotch broth] 23/10/2006 07:20

I have heard a story that fertiliser prices are up 20%.Poor prices are what held the shares back after the last results.I do not know whether the story is reliable.It is from a farmer and they moan all the time.

[0rb1t] 20/10/2006 12:47

Not mentioned in the IC.

[sammu] 20/10/2006 12:29

Now that's a break out, and it's still going.

I think it needs to hold above 610 for a few days to be confirmed. A bit of volume would be good too.

Sam

[meadow50] 20/10/2006 11:29

Up 6% today.Anyone know the reason?I hold 800 shares.
cheers

[scotch broth] 28/9/2006 20:47

Press reports suggest milling is doing well because of price increases following poor wheat crop.

[honiton] 16/9/2006 18:09

slow and steady. pe undemanding.

i like stocks like this. nothing difficult, easy to understand, fundamental analysis proves itself.

[0rb1t] 16/9/2006 10:17

I see that CRM's financial year end was on the 31st Aug. With the adsence of any trading update then it could be assumed that they are trading in line with expectations. I think the recent 20% rise reflects this.

I would have thought that next years forecasts could be conservative as this year was impacted by the late payment of farming subsidies. Carrs has also started new joint ventures including expansion into Europe which should drive growth.

[parttime] 15/9/2006 19:39

Looks like someones after some stock.

5.70 now broke (after 18 months) Does that constitute a 'chart breakout'?

Broker forecasts for 06 upped last month by Investec but growth looking pretty flat for next year..

Orb1t, Icelandic takeover raising their stakes ehh?? ; )

[0rb1t] 25/8/2006 19:22

There has been no news recently to justify the rise. Perhapes its an Icelandic Private Equity fund planning a takeover ;)

[parttime] 25/8/2006 17:55

Deathly quiet round here, so I guess this last weeks rise has nothing to with you guys??

Growth looks to have been good in the past but nothing special going foreward.
'Value' stats look superb.

End of year re-rating or something else?

[honiton] 04/6/2006 21:05

will it bid for northern foods milling operations?

[scotch broth] 17/5/2006 16:48

On looking at Carrs' own website I am astonished to find we own a travel agency.I cannot see any mention of it in the annual report.Time for some shareholder perks!

[spaceparallax] 11/5/2006 15:37

Orbit, if that's the cure, then hallelujah.

[0rb1t] 11/5/2006 14:38

Isn't the agri side suffering from the delayed subsidy payments? This should hopefully not be a recurring feature! Income from next winter should be better.

[spaceparallax] 11/5/2006 14:09

Looking a bit wobbly. If only the agri side can get sorted, this has such great potential.

[spaceparallax] 05/5/2006 11:52

IC today, comments 'until the agri side improves .... CRM are fairly priced'

I agree with that assessment.

[aleman] 02/5/2006 14:46

Looks like telly's figures are slightly out of date. What's the point of the useless histogram at the bottom, and it's written in half gibberish? No wonder everything is running behind schedule.

26/04/06 ~ Single Payments Scheme (SPS) update





By close of business yesterday (25 April) 52,922 claims representing 44% of the customer population had been paid - a total of £431.81 million.


Many of the SPS 2005 payment acceleration actions agreed with the Secretary of State have now been delivered and work continues on clearing outstanding tasks on partially validated claims to continue making full payments.


Mapping activity has now resumed directly on to RPA's IT system, operated by a central team in Reading.


Meanwhile, work continues apace on the development of the system to make partial payments with staff involved in the project now testing the various solutions, ahead of the forthcoming implementation. While testing continues, a start date for partial payments remains to be decided.


The system is aimed at making an 80% payment to customers who, at the time of going live, have not yet received a full payment. Our intention is all those who are eligible will receive full or substantial partial payments by the end of June.

[aleman] 28/4/2006 17:59

I doubt they're way off the mark. It is possible that H2 could be poor as the outlook in the recent results said

Sales and margins of fertiliser
in its peak months of March and April have remained disappointing

due to the government not paying subsidy payments to farmers yet. The peak of the season's sales has been missed and these sales may well not be recovered this year. Farmers' lack of money could have a lesser effect elsewhere, perhaps, also. The forecast for next year could then be cautious on the grounds that farmers will change things so as not to encounter the same difficulties next year, which could result in a slightly smaller market to attack. So, in summary, my view is that 06 may be about right, and 07 slightly cautious. I'm certainly not alarmed. A p/e of 9.4 this year falling to 8.75 next, with a yield of perhaps 3.6% then 4.0%, seems conservative for a company with such a good record in recent years in difficult markets.

[iandippie] 28/4/2006 15:21

Are Investec Securities off the mark with their forecasts? They have stated eps of 53.6 and 57.7 for 2006 and 2007.

The last 5 halves have the following eps (adjusted)

22.6 H1 2004
17.4 H2 2004
28.8 H1 2005
19.9 H2 2005
38.7 H1 2006

So, earnings are obviously weighted to H1 every year, however, even if H2 2006 merely matches H2 2005, that would give a full year eps for 2006 of 38.7+19.9, i.e. 58.6 - that beats Investecs estimate for 2007, let alone 2006! (Even merely matching H2 2004 gives 2006 eps of 56.1).

What if eps goes up again by 10%, to say 22 (and CRM have an excellent record of increasing earnings) ? That would give and eps of over 60, dropping the p.e. to little over 8.

Am I missing something, or is this currently undervalued by analysts?

Ian.

[aleman] 26/4/2006 08:47

There we go - a bit of a delayed response.

[aleman] 26/4/2006 08:12

Well, I'm more than happy with the results. Keep those increasing dividends coming. This year's yield should be 3.6% at the current price, I think. We seem to being softened up for a second half blip in a fantastic growth record of 7 years but I'm not sure it will happen, so that yield should remain well covered. There is no reason why next year should not be another strong one anyway. I would expect some modest strength in the share price this week but could imagine a little weakness in quieter months ahead. If it doesn't move on I shall be adding as funds become available.

[spaceparallax] 26/4/2006 07:46

Agreed on EPS and divi looking good; however, the matter of fertiliser remains a signfificant concern in a business where agriculture is the dominant portion. No doubt the share price will improve a little, but I believe that the lukewarm lead demonstrated by the MMs opening only a few pence higher demonstrates their expectations.

I will continue to hold and hope, but won't be rushing to top up until the agri side shows signs of heading in the right direction.