Carrs Mill. Share Discussion Threads

[royaloak] 06/1/2005 12:42

aderimi, where's the name from?

Cat, did you pick this company from a chartist perspective originally? Interested to know your approach, thanks.

[cat] 06/1/2005 12:02

This one from Insinger de Beaufort:
Carr's Milling, AGM trading statement
The animal feed, flour milling and engineering group
released an encouraging trading update this morning,
ahead of its interim results (to 26 Feb 2005, due in April).
The Food division in particular has enjoyed a strong
performance, with trading 'slightly' ahead of expectations
due to an easing in the wheat price (which has increased
volumes and gross margins) and the recent earnings
enhancing Meneba acquisition. The main Agriculture
division continues to trade 'satisfactorily', while the
Engineering division, which moved to break-even last
year, is benefiting from a stronger order book and better
margins. Following a strong run post the full year results
in November 2004, the valuation remains undemanding.

[cat] 06/1/2005 09:11

Breaking out today - £7.62 still my target :-)

[cat] 06/1/2005 09:09

Just out from Investec:

Carr's Milling 509p
Food Producers & Processors "Buy"

United Kingdom 12m High/Low 525p/295p
CRM.L Market Cap £41.0m

Good start to the year
After 4 months trading, Carr.s Milling is able to report a strong start to the
year in all divisions, with the best performance recorded by the food
operations. We are not changing forecasts at this early stage of the year but
this strong start does help to underpin our numbers. We are forecasting
£5.85m for 2005, with EPS of 44.7p.
The strongest performance has come from Food. Last year, the Food division
reported a small interim loss after an exceptional depreciation charge of
£200k, and lower margins (the impact of high grain prices). This year, margins
have bounced back as grain prices have fallen, volumes have increased and
there are no exceptionals. Additionally, the acquisition completed just 6
weeks ago (Meneba UK) is trading well. The full benefit of this acquisition will
be seen in 2H and through to 2006.
In Agriculture, there has been a more mixed performance. For example,
fertiliser has been strong, but feed volumes are down slightly in a weak
market. Overall though the division is trading satisfactorily.
In Engineering, the trends are finally starting to improve after a difficult couple
of years. The order book looks stronger and margins a little better too.
During the current year the division will be relocating to a new site. This
could give rise to some disruption costs in the short term (we have assumed
£100k or so of costs in our numbers) but in the longer term it should benefit
from operating from the new purpose built facility.
We expect the group to show good progress at the interim stage which
should help the group on the way to our PBT forecast of £5.85m to August
2005. For 2006 profits are expected to jump strongly again as the acquisition
is included for a full year and synergies are realised. We are forecasting
£6.6m, EPS 51.3p. The shares have responded well to the acquisition and the
stock is now trading on a PER of 11.4x, falling to 10x for 2006. This is more
in line with sector averages but we are happy to leave the stock as a Buy
given the current solid trading.

[royaloak] 06/1/2005 09:05

Iv'e been in this company for years on fundamentals, hat off to CAT on his charting comments on this at the start of the thread, absolutely spot on!

[badtime] 06/1/2005 07:55

nice mark up

[chrisg] 31/12/2004 17:22

I'll certainly drink to that........ hic!

:-)

[cockneyrebel] 31/12/2004 16:26

Merry xmas Diogenes, Chris, aderemi and all.

Hope all the banana are left to the monkeys Diogenes :-)

CR

[chrisg] 31/12/2004 14:44

Yes, happy new year folks! And may it be prosperous for us all.

[diogenesj] 31/12/2004 14:27

You too, A, and all other holders.

[aderemi] 31/12/2004 14:26

Merry Xmas and happy New year, DJ and CR.

[diogenesj] 31/12/2004 14:24

Happy New Year, CR. Everything's going so well I keep looking around for a banana skin! :-)

[cockneyrebel] 31/12/2004 11:17

Well it's flying again Diogenese! :-)

My guess is a very positive AGM on Jan 6th and then a breakout and racing up towards £6. Recent director buying above this level and the pure undervaluation here looks a great driver for the price imo, not to mention the long term history of solid earnings growth year after year over 5 years - plus a decent yield too.

CR

[superdealer] 31/12/2004 10:21

Normal service has been resumed today.

[diogenesj] 29/12/2004 13:36

Still looking cheap after recent upgrades imo; any good news could send it flying again.

[cockneyrebel] 29/12/2004 11:02

AGM on Jan 6th - should be interesting seeing there is recent director buying at 520p+.

Last year's AGM was rather upbeat - this one should be too after the recent results I'd say.

CR

[cat] 15/12/2004 07:50

ex-div today (9p i think)

[diogenesj] 14/12/2004 11:48

RNS today: Lord Inglewood buys a few more at 521p, and reports the transaction more promptly.

[sammu] 09/12/2004 21:05

Chris I think the slow appreciation of the Meneba acquiistion is the main fuel behind the rise.

Space you mention
'The SW rec'
is this shares weekly?

Cheers

Sam

[diogenesj] 09/12/2004 16:26

Lord Inglewood buys a few at 395p? Nice to have classy directors, but shouldn't he have announced that a month ago (bought on 11 November).

[diogenesj] 09/12/2004 10:13

Yes, good point, Chris, and anyway they still look pretty good value to me even on the current forecasts.

[chrisg] 09/12/2004 01:27

At tonight's closing price, these are on a current year p/e of just a tad under 11.5, which is hardly dear for a company growing as consistently as this one. I could call it cheap, but I don't ramp! The PEG ratio is 0.95, and we all know that ratios under 1 are regarded as attractive. A growing dividend, and solid acquisitions to boot.

Also bear in mind one very positive fact which nobody has yet picked up on, to the best of my knowledge. When they announced the offer to buy Meneba, they stated that the acquisition would be earnings enhancing in the first full year of acquisition (i.e. year ended 31st August 2006). By the time they published the Annual Report about a week ago, their further review of the new business caused them to change their expectation. They now expect the acquisition to be earnings enhancing in the current year to 31st August 2005. We haven't yet had any revised forecasts to take that into account but it probably means we are on a current year p/e of only 10-point-something, and I refuse to accept that that is either dear or overpriced!

Of course we'll get profit-takers, and who can blame them! After all, profits should be taken: it is what they are there for! However, I do think that even greater profits will accrue to those who hold on at this level.

All IMHO of course! WDIK, DYOR, etc, etc.

[diogenesj] 09/12/2004 00:18

Long overdue recognition of its yeoman qualities, I expect, space.

[spaceparallax] 08/12/2004 12:09

CRM great Company, great charts - true. However, as said recently why has this share risen so much recently without obvious reason. Look at the profit and yield; this business is sound but likely to grind away rather than learn to fly. The SW rec seems to have to have caused a dust explosion in the share price; ah well, once the rising pressure has vented and the dust settles CRM must fall back to a more sensible level, having secured a fair rise. It amazes me that there are still takers at this level, especially amongst the bigs; when will profit taking begin?

[diogenesj] 07/12/2004 23:28

Never mind, Chris. Lots of other fish in the sea. Not such a compelling buy now after the rise, although I think it could go a bit further.