Carr's Share Discussion Threads

[somethingsup] 10/8/2022 18:56

Good points! Anyway my final prediction (ha ha!) having seen the Page move is the following;
Engineering Sold
Agri supplies Sold
Agri specialty kept (Always been a low cost nice little business with huge profits & potential). Page to be CEO.

Anyway we should know before month end when the new high calibre Non Execs join?

[bottomfisher] 10/8/2022 18:36

Does anyone have any thoughts on whether Heygate & Sons, Carr's biggest shareholder with a 13.5% stake, has much influence on the future direction of this company?Arthur and Paul Heygate, the two directors of Heygate & Sons, are both in their late 70's and described as farmers and flour millers in Companies House filings.

Heygate is a fairly sizeable agribusiness with revenues of around £300m, net profits of £6.7m, and around 1100 staff, roughly the same as Carr's. If the latter is to be broken up, which seems on paper the most obvious course, what role, if any, might Heygate & Sons play? Is there a younger generation of Heygates waiting in the wings to take over Carr's agricultural side?.

Perhaps debate about Heygate's own future might partly explain the long delay in sorting out what happens to Carr's. Any thoughts from more knowledgeable investors than myself most welcome.

[somethingsup] 08/8/2022 10:26

Valuation: Releasing the value of divisions beneficial Given the ongoing strategic review, we believe a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) analysis is appropriate because it shows that stocks engaged purely in engineering activities or providing speciality agricultural inputs command substantially higher multiples than those involved in supplying commoditised agricultural inputs. Our SOTP calculation gives a value of 257.5p/share, which suggests that any potential strategic activity that released the value of individual divisions by splitting up the group would be beneficial for shareholders.

[p1nkfish] 07/8/2022 21:33

I guesstimate 180p+ being cautious.
Much less and its not worth the effort imho as that value would out over time anyway.

It was around 150p in Feb. Expectation of the results of the review accounts for the price rise on release of a less than ideal TU that was largely already priced in.

Another waiting game.

[somethingsup] 07/8/2022 18:27

Worth a listen to the NWF Video presentation…out last week.
Lots of acquisition chat!

[somethingsup] 07/8/2022 18:19

SOTP £292.7p

We’d all like that😁㊋6;

[p1nkfish] 07/8/2022 16:34

Reminder of possible potential value to release.

[andydaf] 07/8/2022 15:51

Fwiw i thinks it makes a lot of sense for the engineering side to be sold/floated ,the fuel oil side to be sold to NWF and the rest to be merged with Wynn.However i am never right so i will have to await the review.As somethingsup has stated i am pretty sure its going to be radical and far reaching.As always GLA

[somethingsup] 07/8/2022 15:10

……because there will be CEOs in the new companies; sold or merged?

[somethingsup] 07/8/2022 14:59

The PP CEO announcement indicates to me it is a temporary measure before the strategic review is revealed. Crossing T’s & dotting i’s is all that’s left so we must be in for something fairly radical in my view. Certainly a sale of the engineering and possibly parts of the Agri businesses. Could even be a merger of the Agi businesses into NWF or Wyn?
Time will tell but I’ve never seen a non exec chairman go to exec chairman & then CEO unless it’s temporary!?

[andydaf] 06/8/2022 16:58

Reading between the lines Pelham was a engineering man.The new ceo/chairman is farming/food man.I could be very wrong but i expect the engineering side to go when the strategic review is revealed.Trading update was good, no nasty suprises in difficult times.Cfo leaving for westmoreland tells a story of carrs becoming a smaller but more focused group.Looking forward to the strategic review.As always GLA

[p1nkfish] 05/8/2022 17:47

Review release soon. Price up on decent volume vs 3m average after the TU today that confirmed the bad stuff. Interesting.

CEO transition not rushed too. If I had followed this more closely I might have a theory as to the CEO move related to the outcome of the review but have no clue. Current CEO come to end of the road and wanting a change?

[somethingsup] 24/4/2022 13:57

With so many strategic possibilities I’m now of the opinion that all three Divisions should remain; a Holdings Company with two separately quoted companies; Carr’s Engineering & Carr’s Agriculture (combining Supplies & Specialty who do support each other!). That would create value and growth . Let’s not sell when so many parts of our company are looking very exciting. If there are sellers post strat review then rather sell shares with 20% CGT.

[kirmich] 24/4/2022 09:01

numbers not well received, i liked them though. Took a bit more and also had a go at 141 but didn't materialize.

Let's see what it will bring us the next few months.

[somethingsup] 20/4/2022 10:19

Looking at the Edison report out today they have spent £400,000 on the ongoing strategic review. They’ve clearly got some heavyweight advisers on board and judging by the emphasis on Engineering I’d bet that will be sold next few months?

[cwa1] 20/4/2022 07:47

Half year report out:-



"A robust performance in the period with full year expectations unchanged"

[somethingsup] 16/4/2022 08:36

Agree no dividend. Shares up sell & pay 20% CGT, as you wish.

[kirmich] 15/4/2022 17:44

Please no dividend , check out how Donegal over in Ireland did it a few years ago. Also in the farming sector, with a lot of farmers as shareholders. was a fun ride.

Probably they end up saying, we stuff our plans in the backburner for now. As long as the results keep being ok, i don't really mind. But i do like the focus of Wynnstay, they prove that execution and good results do help the share price. What a ride there from the low 2's.

I like the farming sector, hope to do a repeat here with carr, in with average 150.

[somethingsup] 15/4/2022 09:04

My final thoughts based on the Edison report.
Sell Engineering £70m
Sell Agri Supplies £70m
Keep Agri Specialty £190m (Re rated)

Result £140m in the Bank. Special Dividend of £1.00 (£90m) from some of £140m proceeds. Hold £50m for acquisition/s.
Renamed Carr’s Specialty Agriculture valued at £190m. International business with patents & profit margin.
Now that’s what I call shareholder value!
IMHO

[bareknee] 12/4/2022 15:48

I think the most likely outcome of the review will result in a similar situation to what happened with the flour businesses in that they'll sell off at least some, but more likely all, of the engineering businesses to one, or more, other companies.

I'd imagine there'd be plenty of interest in the Nuclear side of things.

A spin off into a new, quoted company is possible, but, to me at least, seems pretty unlikely.

[3800] 12/4/2022 12:34

Thanks for that Bareknee, thats the bit I have been looking for.
3800

[somethingsup] 12/4/2022 11:52

A Holding Company with three separately quoted business’s.
28513;

[3800] 12/4/2022 11:44

Thanks for that somethingsup, I couldn't find any company confirmation of a stratigic review. maybe edison were hoping for a fat fee for administering any split up. I cannot see management being keen on running a smaller part of the total group as running a smaller company would mean smaller recumeration for them. Aswell as less prestige.
3800