Carlton Res. Share Discussion Threads

[remp31] 27/6/2008 08:18

cbm recovering worth a little top up on this now.

[the drewster] 25/6/2008 19:41

CBM price is WTN dependant (WTN "situation" rather than share price that is), though the WTN share price may give some clues to that situation!

Down heavily, though showing signs of recovering this afternoon (Canadian time)

[nerja] 25/6/2008 19:30

Big after hours trade again.

[remp31] 25/6/2008 15:28

looking cheap again compared 2 cbm.

[captain kurt] 25/6/2008 09:54

Healthy pull back.. imo

[the drewster] 25/6/2008 09:18

It's not really about investing, the arbitrage is locking in profit. The return here depends on how long you tie up your cash (i.e. a couple of weeks into August probably) to make a return outlined above.

Do the sums, then work out if it is right for you.

[nerja] 25/6/2008 09:13

I think did not come across correct, I understand the covering by shorting, but in cases like this do they use the arbitrage for safety as a way of investing and just close shorts let the long in the converted run so get the double effect, of profit from the short then by closing the shorts the converted will go up.

[the drewster] 25/6/2008 09:06

Huh?
The shorts close when you close them.

eg Buy 3250 CLN at effective 273p/CBM (3.25 x 84p)
short 1000 CBM at 295p

Profit = £220

When your certificate comes through for the 1000 CBM on conversion, you hold 1000, but also hold a short position for 1000, so the "loss" is merely the spread. Loss likely to be in the region £20 to £30 plus trading costs.

Clearly this factors up as much as your credit with your broker allows, but is all totally dependant on the deal being completed to plan.

[nerja] 25/6/2008 09:01

The Drewster, when the transfer takes place, do they close shorts or do they pay back in the transfer shares, will it have an effect on CBM share price at the time.

[the drewster] 25/6/2008 08:31

Everything prices in expectations, however, if you are 100% sure you everything will go through, you can arbitrage the situation by shorting CBM to the value of the CLN holding you will accumulate on transfer.

[techmark] 25/6/2008 08:28

295p CBM is 90p CLN. How the hell do the MM's get away with 84p?

[remp31] 24/6/2008 17:05

the pi's keep selling and the big boys keep buying it all tells a story.hold on 2 your shares the big gains have only just started!

[nerja] 24/6/2008 16:56

50k at 92.138 at the end, some body keeps getting as much as he can, paying a slight premium as well on the highest price, it keeps happening.
I managed to top up with 6k at 88.55 , I still dont understand why more are not catching onto this discount, not just to cbm but with wtn as well, the more I learn with shares the less I seem to know.

[remp31] 24/6/2008 15:40

top up time again its like printing money!

[remp31] 24/6/2008 15:40

top up time again its like printing money!

[lefrene] 24/6/2008 15:22

Bobbieblock, we have all done those sums and wonder why CLN is apparently soooo cheap, at least CBM have finally shown their hand, they know a good thing when they want it. Lets see what happens with WTN, the take out price hopefully will be a measuring stick for the others.

[sportbilly1976] 24/6/2008 15:10

Elgin continue to add to their positions....

[cool hand kev] 24/6/2008 13:14

CBM = 3.25 CLN SHARES

[bobbieblock] 24/6/2008 13:06

Bought in on Friday (yeah I know top of rise and all that). Been doing some rough sums for CLN expected 2009 earnings:
Based on data from interim accounts the average production cost per tonne of coal sold was £31.25 - about $60. Lets assume $70 for this year(but cheaper surface mining and increased production will bring down cost)

Galuley Eagle expected to produce 1.1 mil tonnes saleable:
- 60% Metalurgical at prices >$150 = 660,000 X 100 (likely to be way in excess of $150 to sell) = $66,000,000
400,000 thermal x $20 (likely to get $90 tonne for thermal) $8,000,000

1.1mill from Maple eagle 1 at $200 tonne = 143,000,000

Roughly $200,000,000 after expected capital costs = profit £100,000,000

Company curently worth £100,000,000.

How much CLN/CBM worth now?

CLN worth £5 share in my book for PE of 5
WTN is worth at least £10 share for PE of 4-5

How much CBM really worth now?

LoL

[sportbilly1976] 24/6/2008 11:56

Ck,

be interesting to see how long it takes for it to be reported......many delayed trades I think hee..

[captain kurt] 24/6/2008 11:52

Picking up as many shares as I can in the 80s
small window...picked up another 30k

[sportbilly1976] 24/6/2008 11:35

gap between here & CBM opening up again...

currently CBM at 306p vs effective 289p via CLN.

[sportbilly1976] 24/6/2008 10:36

GB,

not if your position in CLN is via s/bets........albeit most since 40p.. :-))

[gb904150] 24/6/2008 10:26

Why before the end of July?

Surely at that point you get your CLN:CBM conversion, which having bought CLN to get CBM at a 6-7% discount you then convert to the larger, more liquid beast that is CBM.

Then, hopefully around August/Sept time we might have some concrete news as to what WTN will be sold for, thus CBM will start to trade closer to its full sum of parts valuation.