Carlton Res. Share Discussion Threads

[papillon] 30/5/2008 16:22

Very cheap way into CBM and hence WTN.

[brian1944] 30/5/2008 10:19

lefrenr. here here.

[lefrene] 30/5/2008 09:59

rehollis, that will be interesting, and also of interest to see how they are presented. I suspect that good prospects will be played down, and every possible liability highlighted :-)

[reghollis] 30/5/2008 08:36

Operational update out by the latest Tuesday morning.

[dannyboy123] 30/5/2008 00:10

Finally we have a deal and a fairly respectable one at that! I am definitely staying in; we have a fair distance to run yet and unless the cbm share price has a total disaster it is almost risk free at the present time.

[topvest] 29/5/2008 21:32

Looks a fair deal to me. I bought at 55p and never thought I would break-even on this pile of rubbish, but now I may make a profit. If I can make a profit on my mistakes, then I am happy..end of story!

[volvo] 29/5/2008 19:17

And rightly so.As stated buy CLN or CBM becuase it is going higher.

[thais] 29/5/2008 17:22

25c/lefrene - thanks for comments. I'm also in the letting the dice roll camp.

[papillon] 29/5/2008 16:38

I think it would be silly of you to sell CLN at 65p, when CBM starts to move up, but its your money and your decision pictureframe. Still seems a shame to sell up after holding for 4 years through the bad times, when the good times are yet to come. CBM is at a massive discount to its WTN stake and the WTN share price is still rising (Cannacord have come out with a C$10.50 target). I'm going to hold on to my CLN shares because I think the CBM share price will be £3, at least, by July which will mean an share price of 92p for CLN. Best of luck with your investing.

[pictureframe] 29/5/2008 16:15

The only positive is if CBM does move up sharply then this will follow suit,
if we see 65p I will be cashing in my chips after 4 years of holding ;0(

[papillon] 29/5/2008 15:54

Great opportunity to top up here. WTN up again on TSE. CBM going sideways but could jump up any time soon.

[ppowerscourt] 29/5/2008 13:37

content of 2685, me learning all the time.

[lefrene] 29/5/2008 12:59

thais, While none too happy with the deal offered, I can see that there is more value to be had from the eventual value of the sum of the parts, once CBM has rejigged itself. So unless I spot some better use for the money I have in CLN, I'm happy to let the bet ride.

[25cent] 29/5/2008 12:01

Thais,special sits funds/ institutions will have large orders to take the stock from the MM's at a discount to the real worth.
They specialize in leveraging the risk of the deal against the % gain from buying the underlaying asset at a discount.
AT the moment CLN is at about 2.5p or 6% discount to its actual real offer value.
This is the reason the MM''s always pitch their tents under the actual offer value , so they can continue to make a book.

[thais] 29/5/2008 11:57

What does anyone make of that long line of "sells", all at 58p, and with no move in the price?

[volvo] 29/5/2008 11:48

seagreen the record coal prices will not last forever.

Yes about another 2/3 years then we will get more production on line.It will never return to low levels though.

The situation at WTN is fantastic agreed but the steel companies will like to make a deal and I think CBM will take a bird in the hand at 4.00 pounds.

That is 350m pounds to CBM about 90pc more than its value today.

[25cent] 29/5/2008 11:31

Exactly my dear friend, got in in one.

[lefrene] 29/5/2008 11:20

If coal prices hold where they are, this buy out value is about equal to the annual gross profit in two years time. CBM need CLN rather more than CLN needs CBM. CLN will be the cash cow to fund other projects.

[bubface] 29/5/2008 11:02

spoke to helpful fellow at cenkos,we will hopefully have a detailed trading update from cln next week.shame the company couldn't manage that before or at the time of agreed deal.surprised anyone has signed irrivocable acceptance on the patchy out of date info shareholders have...maybe they have been privvy to more in depth info than us mere mortal shareholders.

[seagreen] 29/5/2008 10:54

VOLVO me old sunshie Canacorde think WTN worth a tad more than £4 which of course makes CBM worth? which of course makes CLN shares worth?

Would welcome your views on worth and thanks for highlighting CLN to me when I was in WTN

COMPANY SUMMARY:

Western Canadian Coal is a producer of hard coking coaland PCI coal from its Wolverine and Brule mines in British
Columbia, Canada. Production guidance for FY09 is 3.7
million tonnes. The company has several other coking
coal and PCI development properties, also in British
Columbia.

All amounts in C$ unless otherwise noted.

Metals and Mining --Base Metals and Minerals

ROLL-OVER FOR 2009 COAL PRICES;
INCREASING TARGET TO C$10.50

Event

We are increasing our coking coal price forecasts. For benchmark
(Goonyella) hard coking coal, we are now forecasting an unchanged
US$300/t for coal year 2009, with seaborne coking coal demand growth
this year likely to be limited by available supply. We are forecasting
US$225/t for 2010, and a long-term price of US$100/t by 2013.

Impact

For Western Canadian Coal, our new FY09 and FY10 EPS estimates are
C$1.62 and C$2.63, compared to previous C$1.76 and C$1.24. Our new
FY09 and FY10 operating CFPS estimates are C$1.77 and C$2.83,
compared to previous C$1.92 and C$1.45.

Action

We are maintaining our BUY recommendation, and raising our target
price from C$6.00 to C$10.50. Looking beyond the more immediate
exposure to currently very strong coking coal markets, we can also see
the potential for reserve additions at Wolverine, Brule and Willow Creek,
and reserve definition at the large Belcourt/Saxon Joint Venture.

Valuation

Our new target price of C$10.50 is based on the average of our fully
diluted NPV8 of C$9.26 plus a 20% premium to account for probable
reserve additions and possible project acceleration, and 3x F2010
operating cash flow plus FY09 year-end net cash. We are assuming 32%
taxation of earnings from July 2008.

Next catalyst

We expect WTN to report Q4/F08 financial results in late June. We are
forecasting an EPS loss of C$0.15.

Canaccord Adams is the global capital markets group of Canaccord Capital Inc. (CCI : TSX|AIM)

The recommendations and opinions expressed in this Investment Research accurately reflect the Investment Analyst's personal,
independent and objective views about any and all the Designated Investments and Relevant Issuers discussed herein. For important
information, please see the Important Disclosures section in the appendix of this document or visit

[captain kurt] 29/5/2008 09:43

Online offer at 56.8p
Effectively buying CBM at 184.6p.
CBM currently 194p to buy.

[captain kurt] 29/5/2008 09:20

papaduke I agree...this is a good deal for both parties. I'm expecting CBM to motor now that the uncertainty about the bid is over and with it the CLN share price.
With CBM expected too trade about £2.50 very soon, the CLN share price will be worth 76p

[bubface] 29/5/2008 09:05

tried calling eppler on the number provided,which happens to be cambrians he's not even there...in the states,no one else available to talk for coal intl in cambrian's office,cenkos goes to answer phone.all i want to know is when will we get an update just to see how generous this offer is.

[25cent] 29/5/2008 08:59

The real (offer) value right now of CLN with CBM at 195p is 60p.
195/3.25 =60

[budevenwiser] 29/5/2008 08:30

well i aint complaining ended up with 250k at an average of low 30s am thinking of getting more cln because of the discount to cbm of around 5% for a couple of months wait