Carlton Res. Share Discussion Threads

[reghollis] 28/5/2008 09:42

Makes you wonder what a bargain CBM are getting doesnt it.

[bubface] 28/5/2008 09:32

UBS Investment Research
UK Mining
Upgrading coal on supply tightness
�� Increasing our thermal coal/coking coal by 28%/50% in 09E
Thermal coal: due to the threat of another power crisis in China, stretched
infrastructure and slow supply growth our commodity team has increased its
forecasts for '09/'10E by 28/22% to US$160/$165/t. Coking coal: robust steel
demand and slow supply growth indicate that the market may remain in deficit for
at least the next 18 months. Our price forecasts for '09/'10E have increased by
50/57% to US$300/$275 /t.

[captain kurt] 27/5/2008 22:35

This time next year CLN, if left independent, will be valued at multiples of the present share price !

[bubface] 27/5/2008 21:17

from cln jan presentation.

•Significant growth potential; further expansion tied to profitable contracts

[eastwind] 27/5/2008 17:05

Does CLN need extra cash for its operations? With coal price so high, I think it is easy for CLN to obtain extra cash from third parties.

It is better for CBM to do the deal with CLN soon so that it can be valued as a producer earlier.

[bubface] 27/5/2008 13:48

hey ho lets go.

[jonnyboy1] 27/5/2008 11:48

finally managed to get another 10k at 50p.

[jonnyboy1] 27/5/2008 11:08

nothing for sale on the market, cant get filled as i feel like a punt this am on the deal being done this week

[cantata] 27/5/2008 10:43

If we don't think the eventual offer is good enough then presumably we shall have an opportunity to campaign for a No vote at the General Meeting that I assume must be called to seek shareholder approval. Unpopular management decisions have been overturned before...

[volvo] 27/5/2008 09:57

Reg CBM never set out to buy Coal International cheaply because back in January they did not know that Australia would flood and demand worldwide for all types of coal and prices would increase like it has.

We are where we are though and the value of Coal International should be much higher.

Do the sums.

[reghollis] 27/5/2008 09:54

good post volvo.

Perhaps Billy Eppler is doing a grand job of defending share-holder interests.

[volvo] 27/5/2008 09:33

It is getting to the point where an offer must be tabled.Ring the company and ask for an trading update.

When coming to your conclusions on value it is worth noting that Coal International other investments have grown greatly this year in line with the coal industry.

Fistly NNE where we own 20pc.Market cap at all time high of 100m cd.Worth about 10m pounds to CLN and very strategic as regarding Belcourt Saxon,It owns about 10pc which will be a major canadian coal area.Out of interest WTN owns 50pc.

Then EGB where we have 24pc.Market cap of 19m.Worth about 4.2m and of course enables CBM to gain full control as it owns 27pc already.

That means CBM buys Coal Internationals West Virginia set up at todays price for about 31m,46m mcap minus 15m for the investments above.During CBMs own May 2008 presentation it claimed Coal International would produce 2.8 million tonnes in 2009.At 100 dollars per tonne that is 280m turnover about 140m profit or 70m pounds profit WHICH IS MORE THAN DOUBLE TODAYS BUY OUT PRICE.

Who is about to get the bargain of the year?

Anything below 1.50 is a bargain in a normal transaction but because CBM is the parent company it is ok for it to take advantage? Not really imo.

[captain kurt] 27/5/2008 09:08

Democratic candidates play up "clean coal"
Monday, 05/12/2008
Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are talking more about "clean coal" and less about global warming as they woo voters in West Virginia and Kentucky -- two states that sit at the heart of the nation's coal economy.

[tamtoni] 27/5/2008 08:46

Reg (2625) The response from the Company sounds to me like the trading update and the bid terms will be announced at the same time.

There was a piece on BBC radio 4 this morning (about 2:30am - so it was the world service) about the local residents in West Virginia campaigning against the coal producers - to do with flooding, pollution and scarring the landscape. Did anyone else pick up on this?

[papillon] 25/5/2008 23:10

bubface, from both a fundamental and chart perspective CBM looks almost certain to rise by around 50p, either this week, or if not this week, then almost certainly next week. The CBM share price didn't break out of a pennant formation that occured around 150p until after 21 days had elapsed from the start of the pennant. The present pennant formation is only 12 days old. Thats the chart view. From a fundamental viewpoint only the selling by the 3 institutions, APF, FMR and RAB has held back the share price because the listed investments, alone, of CBM, are worth at least £345m (of which WTN stake is worth circa £315m), as opposed to a £190m Mkt Cap. Probably can add, at least £20m for unlisted investments. When the selling ends, maybe only temporarily, then the share price will jump up to close that discrepancy between the share price and NAV. I hold CBM, WTN and CLN. I have no idea what the terms of CBM's offer for CLN will be because I have no inside knowledge. Being a CLN holder I just hope they are good and north of CLN's present share price

[bubface] 25/5/2008 10:16

Atlantic Leaseco, LLC, West Virginia
•Reserves: Measured and Indicated(saleable tons in millions):
Surface: 6.8
Underground: 17.1
Total: 23.9
•Operations:
•Product: Thermal and Metallurgical Coals
Maple Coal Co
•Reserves: Measured and Indicated(saleable tons in millions):
Surface: 16.3
Underground: 17.4
Total: 33.8
•Product: Metallurgical Coal

atlantic leasco planned 2008 production 1m 2009 1.7m
maple planned 2008 production 0.7m 2009 1.1m.

without breakdown handy for atlantic leasco thermal/metallurgical split there would seem to be a metallurgical bias.they also have peerless coal a premium product getting premium prices.
it would be nice to have some clarity from the company as to product breakdown and also length of their current contract agreements,they do not seem to operate on the same basis as the normal april year for most producers.

[ppowerscourt] 25/5/2008 00:22

A lot of excitement over at CZA from bid rumour! Perhaps someone would be kind enough to breakdown CLN's Thermal vs. Metallurgical coal reserves for us? CLN latest Update soonish?

[ppowerscourt] 24/5/2008 22:14

Thanks, Bubby.

You've just given me a tablet which stablizes my heartbeat. In others words, more time passing can do CLN no harm. Also there is no danger of coal prices dropping abruptly in respect of it not being a traded commodity, e.g. copper or crude which are being wildly speculated causing drastic swings.

pp

[bubface] 24/5/2008 19:12

hello ppowerscount,i personally believe [hunch] that terms have been agreed on a 3 for 1 basis using cbm at 180p as a benchmark i think current delay is due to technicalities with the takeover panel that should be resolved quickly.therefore any move to 250p will be reflected in the value of the offer for cln.having said that i think the cbm posse have been predicting the 250p move for the past three weeks only to see every institutional holder [apart from audley] head for the door! meanwhile the prospective profitability of cln goes up all the time as spot prices for cln type coal have now nudged over $100 i understand,if cln could achieve anything like that on new supply contracts, 2.8m tonnes extraction cost circa $50 per tonne,therefore profit $50 per tonne...not only wtn that you can come up with some big numbers is it!!!

[ppowerscourt] 24/5/2008 17:42

Bubface,

If you're around, could you kindly answer the following? Please.

Over at CBM, they're conjecturing 250p for CBM share price next week. How would the equation change for CLN then? Would CLN still be 60p as you previously supported? (My hope for 2 for 1 has long been shattered!)

Cheers and regards,
pp

[lefrene] 23/5/2008 11:43

Thanks reghollis

[reghollis] 23/5/2008 10:59

3 v 1
20K v 5K

BTW had a reply from Alwyn at CLN/ CBM today after badgering him for a couple of days about our operational update. here is the reply although it doesnt say much it seems to suggest ( or am i reading too much into it ) that news is not far away.

'I have handed on your request and I reiterate that I am not able to influence any further in the release or non release of any information. I will of course tell them I have received another request. I hope that once everything is announced, as it will be as soon as possible, you will understand not only where the company is but also be able to form your opinion on any offer that has been made.'

[lefrene] 23/5/2008 09:02

That UBS buying is the unknown factor pictureframe. What if they are holding them for the ultimate benefit of CBM? It is shameful that CLN are not posting their trading update, but as you say the longer that wait goes on then the better the picture should be.