Carillion Share Discussion Threads

[gkp heros] 31/10/2017 08:10

Shorter willContinue to exit it's going one way!!

[russell250] 31/10/2017 08:09

added this morning - this will double as soon as shorters drop to single figures

[gkp heros] 31/10/2017 08:08

£1 before you know it, long term this is a winner!!

[ileeman] 31/10/2017 07:57

Very nice.

[russell250] 31/10/2017 07:52

small disposals add up

[srpactive] 31/10/2017 07:31

Small disposal.

[rcturner2] 31/10/2017 07:24

iLeeman, good luck here, you seem very confident. I must admit I can only see the negatives, you are either an eternal optimist or a bit blind lol. Time will tell.

[balbains324] 30/10/2017 22:59

I'm long on this bit too many Muppets on this board. Shorts are closing out price will be heading north. Carilion is not going bust. My money is on it. Let's see what happens.

[ileeman] 30/10/2017 17:12

Dont show fenner or wallywoo that they will throw a fit.

[excell1] 30/10/2017 17:05

Gladstone Capital Management LLP 1.08% -0.18% 27 Oct 2017

down to 16.61%

[fenners66] 30/10/2017 16:37

No you are quite right
No profit for 5 years
Huge net debt and growing to over £1bn
Huge pension deficit and growing
Already negotiated to pay 12% pa on its borrowings
Net Liabilities the sum of everything on the balance sheet negative £405m
More competitive environment where largest competitors are losing money - Interserve and may be exiting construction.
Interserve have stated that general cost increases and wage increases are eating into already wafer thin margins
Order book that is up to 5 years old and where margins were negotiated by those that got them into this mess,
£75 - £100m redundancy cost signalled for the second half - that will be a cash cost,
Impact of IAS 15 not even published yet as the FD was too busy writing off £845m
Fire sale of businesses realising a potential loss on disposal?

What's not to like?

[fenners66] 30/10/2017 16:27

iL - ia have changed my mind I think "you" should buy as many of these shares as you can get your hands on.

To mis-quote other comedy geniuses you should " Sell your home and all its contents , to buy more Carillion shares"

[ileeman] 30/10/2017 16:26

Fenners you dont take into account order book or any other finances, you only want to see the negative but there are many positives also.

Risk vs reward at these levels favours the buyer, it is as simple as that.

[fenners66] 30/10/2017 16:24

So you are a Monty Python fan then

"Do you want the 5 minutes or the full half hour"

"That's not an argument its just contradiction"

Observant guys these Pythons even before the internet.....

[ileeman] 30/10/2017 16:18

Cheap is irrelevant to share price, all about market cap.

[fenners66] 30/10/2017 16:15

Buying "cheap" is not a strategy if the reasons why they are cheap are that the share price is still going down,

Marconi were cheap

Alpha Pyrenees were cheap at 30p they were much higher now 0.1p

Lots of shares can be cheap - before they fall further.

At least here we know why they have fallen and we know why there is a risk of falling further - its all on the balance sheet.

£405m Net Liabilities is a start.

[ileeman] 30/10/2017 15:37

2 years ago the price 300p+ fenners....I dont get your point.

The point is since the price has gone below 70p since the crash short positions have been the lowest they have been in 2 years. Shorts have also decreased significantly since July.

Also its worth noting I could care less about short positions from this level, I bought because market cap looks very cheap.

[bracke] 30/10/2017 15:34

Rights issue or debt for equity.

Do I win the coconut?

[wallywoo] 30/10/2017 15:32

how do you know the share price has reached the bottom though iLeeman. There were plenty of posters who thought the share price had reached a low point at 200p (me included)

The key to that lies in the share price action, as it did then. I sold out at a 1-2% loss at £2.01, because the share price just refused to rally and kept being sold off every time it tried. Then the short % increased, and I sold. I expect the same thing to happen now.

[fenners66] 30/10/2017 15:30

The figures are up the page so why exaggerate does it persuade everyone you are right?

So they were correct to short at these levels 2 years ago and they have stopped closing shorts since 9-10-2017 what do you think they are waiting for?

I can give you 2 reasons - lets hear yours.

[ileeman] 30/10/2017 15:25

And rightly so from 200p+ but the price is now less than 50p. Which is why you have seen about a 10% reduction in shorts since the highs and more will follow.

Not hard to understand.

[fenners66] 30/10/2017 15:15

The MOST shorted share on the market

[fenners66] 30/10/2017 15:14

8.68% reduction not 10% but hey that's about the same as saying year end net debt will be £868m and not the £1Bn that the company tells us to expect in the interim accounts.


Try re-reading that ...."they were not wrong 2 years ago."

[rcturner2] 30/10/2017 15:11

I agree that you can't read too much into the recent movements in the short position. It still is a very heavily shorted share and over the next month or so we will see what happens to the short position.

[ileeman] 30/10/2017 15:03

Who says they have been wrong, they have been right but around this price they have been closing. About a 10% reduction since July.