Carillion Share Discussion Threads

[ileeman] 30/10/2017 13:51

Higher lows and shorts closing overall 26% down to 16-17%...wallywoo getting nervous.

[fenners66] 30/10/2017 13:16

Short tracker short interest not changed since 24-10-17

[excell1] 30/10/2017 12:51

Interesting indeed as though the maximum percentage of shorts has fallen over the last few months,that they have stopped taking on further short positions.Not looking good for shorts and bodes well for long investors.

[wallywoo] 30/10/2017 12:40

Interesting point to note ileeman, is that cfd / spreadbet companies won't let you put a long term short on this stcck now (due to the high cost of borrowing stock). That is not a good thing from your point of view - they need more mug punters to buy in here so they can short more. Theory below:

[ileeman] 30/10/2017 11:43

Higher lows being made over last few weeks, dont tell wallywoo that.

[srpactive] 30/10/2017 11:24

Chart looking a tad better.

[rcturner2] 30/10/2017 10:36

I didn't quote you.

[jaf1948] 30/10/2017 10:05

RCT2,

As ever, you deliberately quote me incorrectly to make your case. I never said shorters destroyed PI's investments. I said the fact that the shorters are still here is now the problem: 'If it destroys PI's investments, so be it as far as they are concerned.'

[ileeman] 30/10/2017 10:02

Wallywoo starts crying when the share price is blue.

Currently up 2%+

Funny.

[rcturner2] 30/10/2017 09:59

JAF, the company destroyed the PI's investments not the shorters.

[fenners66] 30/10/2017 09:58

I hate companies reporting profits (which lure in unwary investors) only to write off 5 years worth when they realise they made some terrible mistakes and lose the shareholders a fortune.

The shares were over £3 when the shorting started BUT were over £2 at the AGM when the FD said everything is fine - the shorts did NOT get the share price to 45p the company did when they showed the figures were fiction and they wrote off £845m.

[wallywoo] 30/10/2017 09:58

Jaf: I don't understand your logic. The reason clln is in a mess is not because of the shorters? You speculate that a share price will rise, what is wrong in speculating it will fall?

It is hard to see a shorting opportunity as clear as this one. I don't care if everyone on here goes long, they will still lose 75-100% of their money. I have tried to put the case as clearly as I can. It is up to you, if you delude yourself or not.

The businesses will survive in one form or another, the head office staff will lose their jobs (most on 12 months notice). The ord shareholders will lose all or most of their money. Its just business! There are winners and losers.

[ileeman] 30/10/2017 09:53

Ofcourse shorters will hit companies with poor trading, but around this level they have started to close.

Shorters will continue to close.

[fenners66] 30/10/2017 09:52

Wrong Wally - net debt at the year end....

From the half year figures :

"Average net debt in H1 £694m"

"Full-year average net debt expected to be between GBP825m and GBP850m "

So to take a simple average (which may be inaccurate but we do not have the info)

Year End Net Debt Forecast - between £956m and £1006m

racg "Sufficient funding in place" to make it to £1bn of net debt and that's with deferrals and you think the banks who already want 12% to be happy to pour money in?

If there is no rescue rights issue it will be because they have a debt for equity swap.

Banks are no charity

[jaf1948] 30/10/2017 09:49

One of the reasons the share price has failed to rally is that the shorters are still here.

I despise shorters anyway but having made a packet out of CLLN, their greed shows no boundaries and they are determined to squeeze every penny out of this play. If it destroys PI's investments, so be it as far as they are concerned.

If and when we ever get back to a level playing field, we might have a better view of what the market really thinks about CLLN's chances.

[rcturner2] 30/10/2017 09:42

racg, net debt is rising and the cost of that debt is rising too.

That is a very toxic combination.

[racg] 30/10/2017 09:39

Of course they need to restructure and get the cost savings through, so hardly worry free. But the spectre of a RI is not going to appear yet. Things may be very different by the end of 2018.

[racg] 30/10/2017 09:36

I am glad you accept that this is the bottom and that it can only rise from here. You ll be going long next.:)

[wallywoo] 30/10/2017 09:36

ok so the net debt is due to rise roughly £600M in 12 months for a business with a £200M makt cap. And you are just looking at the maturities and see no worries?

[racg] 30/10/2017 09:31

Look at the maturities on the loans, everything being pushed back or does not require repayment until post 2018.

That is why.

[racg] 30/10/2017 09:30

Wrong Wally.

[ileeman] 30/10/2017 09:15

haha wallywoo

[wallywoo] 30/10/2017 09:11

sufficient funding in place! Net debt will increase from £279M to £850M this year alone. And that is if they manage to sell the assets they were hoping too.

Life boats, needed here in addition to a rights issue!