Card Factory Share Discussion Threads

[elsa7878] 14/6/2024 09:22

Or why someone else doesn't just buy them. The free cashflow yield must be about 12%.

[riverman77] 14/6/2024 09:16

It's taken them well over a year to go from 20% to just below 10% so might take a while till they're fully out. Really can't understand their thinking on this.

[chester9] 14/6/2024 09:12

4.5p Dividend is paid on the 28th at 89p that's 5.1%. If an interim is started as well even better. Teilios down to less than 10% when they are out it will go up. Hopefully they stay selling out so we can reinvest the dividend at a cracking price.

[johndoe23] 14/6/2024 08:56

Markets are just trash currently

[everton448] 14/6/2024 08:25

I agree. And what is really troubling for me is that whilst good news goes unrewarded by any share price appreciation you just know that any sort of caution in any RNS would likely see the price tank.

[elsa7878] 14/6/2024 08:23

It is perplexing seeing this now plumbing its old lows of last year when it's made such incredible progress. It's as though the market doesn't believe them or that they will continue with their growth strategy. Even the most historically sceptical broker (UBS) gives them a target of nearly 30% above here. Very odd.

[everton448] 14/6/2024 08:13

Close to a 10 month low and heading lower almost every day for the last two weeks. Extraordinary really. May have to buy some more for a trade. DYOR etc

[garycook] 14/6/2024 06:34

Card Direct Retail Ltd is privately owned by the Kaneria Family HQ in Hemel Hempstead.The directors include:
Mr. Chirag Kaneria
Mrs. Dipti Kaneria
Mr. Jitesh Kaneria
Mr. Kushal Jitesh Kaneria. Net Profit for 2023 was £458,000,on £14M of turnover.

[lennonsalive] 14/6/2024 01:12

Who owns Cards Direct that seem to be popping up all over the south west

[ggrantsu] 13/6/2024 23:43

Singers initiation note was extremely comprehensive - best I have read on Card and more information vs. Liberum and Investec. Thought the target price of 144p seemed conservative - they use comparables based multiple analysis which included B&M, WH Smith, and Moonpig. Card has much better margins than B&M and WH Smith (and marks and spencers I might add)...and revenue/EPS growth. yet it is pointed out by Singers that it trades at less than half the multiple. moonpig margins are higher but its growth outside of covid has been poor. singers points out that moonpig and card actually focus on completely different markets/demographics...their valuation in the end doesn't opt for pegging card in multiple terms with these peers, hence the 144p rather than £2 plus.

not much in the report i didn't already know; cards are a resilient product, there is a huge opp in gifting and celebrations, omnichannel opp is unique etc.

singers make a comment that partnerships, because of the group's very ambitious targets in that area, are key to the share price. i agree...and think that they have shot themselves in the foot a little bit. the targets are just so large in partnerships...why they said FY27 was the year these needed to be met, who knows? i just think that given the lack of communication on this part of the business, it may not be reached by FY27. that is a shame as all the other great stuff going on here could be totally overshadowed if they have got their time horizon for targets wrong - the market hates when internal targets aren't met and it doesn't matter how well everything else is going. even more of a shame given how the partnership stuff they are going is obviously really working e.g. the reject shop wholesale model in australia saw card get that outfit get to no.1 in cards in australian within 2 years. its very impressive.

my view still stands: this business would be best served by being bought out by PE. just feels like its perhaps one where the listed markets may never be very kind to it? either way, increasing position down at these levels. the thing that comes through in singers (and other notes) is the margin of safety on offer.

[everton448] 13/6/2024 22:34

Hi Sophia - not sure - just got the headline, not the underlying report

[casholaa] 13/6/2024 19:26

Who knows, mind you have a look here....

[sophia1982] 13/6/2024 18:26

everton, why is UBS neutral???

[gswredland] 13/6/2024 10:55

Thanks Everton

[everton448] 13/6/2024 09:42

UBS raises Card Factory price target to 116 (107) pence - 'neutral'

[everton448] 12/6/2024 16:53

Thanks ggrantsu - do you have any details you can share?
thanks

[ggrantsu] 12/6/2024 14:37

target price of 144...very positive note.

[omron] 12/6/2024 08:27

Has anyone seen the initiating coverage note from Singer? What was their target price?

[bbonsall] 11/6/2024 09:04

Furthermore, since Covid shut all the shops and CF was making losses and threatening to need a £70 million cash raise, there has been massive growth in turnover, profits and cash flow. The share price has rocketed from 50p to 90p!
So CF share price is not reactive to growth anyway, it seems.

[bbonsall] 10/6/2024 23:36

darrin1471

I agree entirely with you that the hang up on growth is misplaced here.

We would be concerned about growth if we were trying to justify a PE of 40+
What the hell has growth got to do with trying to justify a PE of less than 7??!!
The average PE for non growth companies is 16 anyway.

[kaos3] 10/6/2024 18:39

Buffet is the master of the self discipline. Saturate the market and then stop adding - in order not to decrease profitability and margins. do not invest elswhere out of the competence range. just simply pay out as much cash as you can to the shareholdrs.

growth per se with decreasing margin is a no go in my book.

what i like they did is - they seeded overseas - where there is a hope of letting their competitive advanteges take over and win the local market.

but as with all seeds - just few get out of the soil - and one has to invest and be carfeull and wait long time before harvesting. but it is worth

imho

[rmillaree] 10/6/2024 18:32

"Perhaps the best strategy could be to stay on the sidelines until then"

Its tricky one isnt it most people are saying this is currently "unaturally cheap" - if they hit targets into 2027 imho its pretty clearly undervalued so those waiting might miss out on the natural increase in price one should expect over time if they do hit targets or if it is an overhang depressing price that goes soon(i wont necessarily disagree with those that say that could be holding the price back) one takes one chance now or one doesnt.

[riverman77] 10/6/2024 17:39

In terms of price increases, it looks like these were implemented in the previous H2 which would explain why H1 this year was strong, while H2 a bit more flat. Based on their outlook statement it looks like further price increases won't be coming until H2 this year - coupled with yet another large increase in minimum wage (not to mention ever increasing stamp costs) suggest this coming H1 could be a bit soft. Perhaps the best strategy could be to stay on the sidelines until then, as Telios are unlikely to have shifted their holding for at least another 6 months.

[darrin1471] 10/6/2024 17:15

Only £520m is coming from the store estate by FY27