Card Factory Share Discussion Threads

[grahamytrain] 18/1/2024 07:06

Yeah, sounds more like a porn site…cardfactoryonline would be more appropriate methinks

[tradertrev] 17/1/2024 14:52

Someone mentioned the idea of an alternative online brand. IMO the "gettingpersonal.co.uk" brand always sounded like a website you definitely wouldn't want to visit! Fortunately they seem to be focusing more on cardfactory.co.uk these days.

[mouse_of_wallst] 17/1/2024 14:00

Graham it's the markets I think -inflation targets and jobs data.

[grahamytrain] 17/1/2024 13:13

Not sure what will move this, but do wish the company would interact with shareholders and market more frequently. Any publicity is good publicity!!!

[bbonsall] 17/1/2024 11:20

monte1
Don’t forget they make their own cards.

[monte1] 17/1/2024 09:54

Knock off the price of a 1st class stamp and it doesn’t sound like there is a huge amount of money to be made through online cards at that price point then without massively scaling up volumes. Is it any more than a minor add-on to bricks and mortar? It will be interesting to see the segmental analysis at year end.

[fft] 17/1/2024 09:53

A number of companies (forget who) are saying that the minimum wage increase will actually help them.Why ? Because a large part of their customer base will be the ones receiving the increase ! Yes, the costs of their staff will go up, but the money in the pocket of the poorer consumers will also go up, and that will result in higher sales.Also worth bearing in mind is that the pension increase this year in April/may will be huge because of the triple lock. 8.5%. It will mean a lot more money in the pockets of the pensioners. Many of whom are the biggest buyers of cards. I suspect there is going to be a lot more money available for retail spending this year.

[bbonsall] 17/1/2024 09:49

In case you haven’t investigated CF app. I use it when I need to send a birthday card when I am abroad. You can choose an A5 size card, personalise it and CF send it first class to my chosen address in the UK for £2.79 incusive.
Moonpig is more expensive I believe and where else can you buy a decent birthday card for £2.79 even without first class postage included?

[premium beeks] 17/1/2024 09:43

Do we know if all of CRs sheeple are out yet?

[bbonsall] 17/1/2024 09:25

After results were published in May 23 analysts then predicted the current year end results would produce an EPS of less than last year’s published 12.9p.
We now see EPS will be 17-18p.
They were wrong big time. Yet the analysts still persist in negativity.

[actscap] 17/1/2024 09:18

Positives CARD targeting 53 percent non card sales in fy27. A lot of historic results generated on majority card sales. This shift in sales mix is a core driver for the 600m revenue goal (i.e., augmenting card sales with gifting and confectionery). Remember, we'll break 500m level for fy2024. Partnerships getting a solid footing and moving forward. High risk, but SA greetings proof of concept progressing reasonably well so far. 24m capital spend coming each year going forward to support growth initiatives. Should help drive top line growth further. I like Darcy and Matthias. Not throwing out adjusted EBITDA numbers, instead favouring operating profit metric. Good culture rolled out. Lots of focus on people and talent acquisition. They seem to do a lot of team centric stuff to rally staff together such as the Golden quarter conferences and evolve conferences. ChallengesChallenging wage increases and inflation head winds to navigate in fy2025. Unavoidable and will strain margins. Online and Omni channel long term targets will be difficult no doubt. Online customer acquisition could be costly. I don't know if an alternative online brand would help here. I continue to watch with interest.

[thomasearnshaw] 17/1/2024 09:17

Beware some on Slack speak with forked tongue

[monte1] 17/1/2024 09:15

#5665

The P/E ratio is a product of the share price to earnings ratio rather than a driver of the share price. It is only one measure of a Company’s value and is more useful when applying on a forward basis based on market consensus expectations and the current market expectations are not hugely positive in relation to its peers. I think this is a bit of an anomaly due to relatively low level of analysts coverage and hence an opportunity to benefit from any re rate when sentiment improves.

[chester9] 17/1/2024 08:56

Meanwhile Card will keep taking market share off the most efficient model out there. 10% wage lift will cause competition to close more shops. This is not new it is where card has been taking market share for years. SP will be much higher when results out.

[actscap] 17/1/2024 08:51

Top line over the years....2014 327 2015 3532016 3822017 3982018 4222019 4362020 4522021 2852022 3642023 4632024 500+

[johndoe23] 17/1/2024 08:42

The stock market is the transfer of money from the impatient, to the patient

[bbonsall] 17/1/2024 08:40

monte1
Despite what you say about future expectations, most stocks have a value calculated on a multiple of published earnings per share. The multiple used for CF is far below the market average.
When the market was considering the possible bankruptcy of CF in 2020 the share price was still 40p.
It seems that the market thinks we are now worth only twice bankruptcy value!

[premium beeks] 17/1/2024 08:18

Exactly right monte.Hope you are well Sir!

[monte1] 17/1/2024 08:17

#5660

That is not how it works. What they have done has now been and gone. The price reflects what the market believes will happen in the future. It is worth what buyers are prepared to pay for these prospects.

fwiw I think it is cheap at these levels.

[monte1] 17/1/2024 08:14

UK’s biggest greetings retailer sees double-digit sales growth with single festive cards up 37%

Positive momentum has seen Cardfactory deliver double digit like-for-like sales growth to £476.9million as store revenue climbed by 7.8% in November and December.

CEO Darcy Willson-Rymer applauded the UK’s largest greeting card retailer’s “strong performance over the Christmas period” in the trading statement coving the 11 months to 31 December, 2023, which was released yesterday, 16 January,

Improvements in stock management and replenishment processes enabled the company to capitalise on “particularly strong demand in the second half of December”, as l-f-l store sales in the last two months of the year were up 7.8%.

The retailer saw strong year-on-year growth in seasonal cards, driven by an increased number of transactions and average basket value – open card sales grew by 37%, which Cardfactory said was due to the range development, the continuing To The Pet trend saw a 49% rise, and Wife captions rose by 41%.

And an expanded gift offer and introduction of key licensed ranges is credited with a 45% increase in soft toy sales, and confectionery going up by 77%, marking a combined gifts and celebrations essentials growth of 9.9% l-f-l.

The company said the 10.2% uplift in total sales to £476.9m reflects “continued momentum across the business and execution of our strategy to become the leading, omnichannel retailer in the sector”, and the store revenue’s overall 8.2% l-f-l growth was said to be driven by the value and quality proposition and “the positive impact” of the store evolution programme.

There has also been a “continued positive performance” in everyday and seasonal card ranges, with growth hitting 5.4% in the 11-month period, while there has been a “profitable contribution” from the new partnerships with Matalan and Liwa Trading Enterprises, and the recently-acquired SA Greetings arm in South Africa contributed £9.1m revenue.


Given the strength of performance in the year to date, the Cardfactory board expects to deliver full-year adjusted profit before tax, excluding one-off items, at the top of the range of market expectations – between £58.4m and £62m – and said it “remains confident in the achievement of the long-term financial and operational targets” set out at its capital markets strategy update in May 2023.

Darcy added: “We are pleased to have delivered a strong performance over the Christmas period, further demonstrating the progress we are making on our strategic growth initiatives.

“Our value and quality proposition continues to resonate with customers at a time when value for money is as important as ever. Even during challenging times, consumers want to celebrate key life moments and this was reflected in the positive performance that we saw in the Christmas trading period and throughout the year to date.”

“Colleagues across all areas of our business have worked incredibly hard to deliver an improved experience for our customers this year. As we look ahead, we remain focused on delivering against our growth strategy by helping our customers to affordably celebrate all life’s moments.

[bbonsall] 17/1/2024 08:09

The simple point is this. If CARD was worth 110p on last year’s results it is worth more than 110p on the just announced hike in profits from £46million to £62 million.
The brokers concerns about what might or might not happen in two years time is irrelevant.

[castleford tiger] 17/1/2024 07:30

@pmetol

I dont have a position here. Traditional retail is still under pressure as footfall continues to decline in towns.

I cannot see whats going to drive this up? however i have not done DD on the numbers.

Very surprised when @CR declared 30% of his portfolio was in one company.

This is not like @LGEN or @AV its a tiddler.

I am too heavy as a % on MFX and got caught on @TND and lost £800k of paper profits.

MFX and MPAC are coming good again as it JET2.( DOCS was my big success in spotting one in trouble if you read back over the last 12/18 months)

All the best
Tiger

So on @CARD i am on the sidelines.

[everton448] 17/1/2024 07:22

All of this is perfectly reasonable save in one respect. What within the TU was the catalyst for this epiphany whereby the analysts now conclude that there is a risk that they do not reach 600 m turnover in FY27? The company confirmed it believes it is in track and that results will be at the top end of market expectations. Seems to me that this anxiety about the future could have been expressed at any point and is not linked to the TU at all (unless a company has to outperform its own expectations in the short term, in order for the market to believe it will meet its own expectations in the longer term, which seems odd)

[premium beeks] 17/1/2024 05:06

Markets look ahead, not backwards. The analysts are looking at the macro and thinking the companies forecasts are challenging.

Meanwhile growth online is not happening, as others are well ahead of the curve. I wouldn't buy a generic card online and pay postage when I can pop to the local card shop / supermarket / post office and get one. When I think about online offerings the first thing that goes through my mind is the funkypidgeon.com or moonpig.com jingle, I don't think of CF. Finally, their website is pretty awful.

Go against analysts conjecture if you want, however the forecasts put quite the cap on the price until the company reguides again. Makes for a great 80p - 110p trading window though.