Card Factory Share Discussion Threads

[jsis] 24/8/2020 14:33

Got to be time to start loading up then, burn baby burn

[mallorca 9] 24/8/2020 14:28

As I did with Thomas Cook .... I am now loading up on my short position here .

We will see volatility on the way down , but the course is now set .... Administration / complete closure.

Dear oh dear oh dear !

[fenners66] 24/8/2020 14:00

Look at Tesco today
15,000 new jobs to support internet based shopping.
From a supermarket !

The most basic of shopping trips, they acknowledge that CV has accelerated the evolution of shopping to online.

That should mean that a lot of the 1000+ CF shops are redundant.

Cannot see CF adding 15,000 jobs ...

[fenners66] 24/8/2020 13:57

LC - there are reasons to borrow , both good and bad.

Borrowing for new profitable projects - good
Borrowing to supplement cash flow during loss making and to replace other debt that you cannot pay - bad.

adding more borrowing to a weak balance sheet is not a way out.... at least not for shareholders.

Perhaps its good for debt holders who see a cheap way of acquiring a business - to rationalise and sell on later.

As it is , the directors are stuck with the legacy .

1000+ shops
Massive intangibles
Low cash flow
Loss making - without govt help
Growing debt

Perhaps the issue for the directors is continue stating that having a 1000 shops or more is good - because admitting that the strategy is shot, leads to more losses and redundancies, the auditors asking awkward questions about all the intangibles.
And if they recommend a write down - that leads to more losses , weaker balance sheet a run on the shares and debt holders getting more aggressive and more onerous on the covenants.

Puts the role of the auditors in perspective....

Make them write down the intangibles enough and they may be taken into administration by debt holders, eventually.
Do they bet on retaining the audit? Or are they already in with the debt holders.
Now that should not come into it in any way; I'm sure the auditors only ever judge the intangibles on their merits....

However it also depends upon the evidence that is submitted to them.

[mallorca 9] 24/8/2020 13:50

Oh dear oh dear oh dear oh dear !

[mallorca 9] 24/8/2020 13:38

Timber

I love this share !

[lastchance23] 24/8/2020 10:44

From HL analysts:

"At £144.2m, its net debt position was better than anticipated by management, which expected the firm to 👍remain within its revised banking covenants, having carefully managed its costs, cash and creditors.

Among the latter were about 👍£24.7m in cost deferrals for rents, VAT and some agreed payments to suppliers.

Card Factory had also obtained 👍£15.5m of funding under the Coronavirus job retention scheme and, if required 👍 was eligible to issue commercial paper under the Covid Corporate Financing Facility, should it be required...

[lastchance23] 24/8/2020 10:31

Mallorca you are the biggest gamer on here, if I didn't know better I'd think you worked for bank or hedgefund...Real investors know the liquidity situation here, and if the company should need further liquidity their are a number of steps, firstly they have loan and terms to renegotiate, then they could consider an equity raise, and beyond that other options exist. To try and persistently scare about administration at an early stage is not exactly fair or ethical behaviour. This is a multi channel business that could work entirely online with warehouses, other businesses may like the inhouse design, business is never cut and dry, but management will do their best, and they are experienced and have come through prior recessions.

[mallorca 9] 24/8/2020 10:12

Dear oh dear oh dear !

[fenners66] 24/8/2020 09:28

lastchance - Debenhams had a heap of intangibles on their balance sheet as well.......

[lastchance23] 24/8/2020 09:26

Mallorca - not sure what your definition of very strong market is, we had 3 day sell off last week. Small cap do not move with ftse 100/250, less analysts, less coverage. Value has been underplayed against growth in this recovery, but investors will start to question the fangman etf bubble, then cyclical and small cap value enter trade.

I haven't decided on my play here, As I stated before I reduced my position down, I have an equal weight holding, so I can trade this within a 10-15% range easily.

I would expect some job losses and store closures, but that is what all retailers are doing. They have strong online potential, so I'm not ready to write them off. This is long way off major problems, near term I'm happy to hold.

[mallorca 9] 24/8/2020 09:09

Consistently falling now against a very strong market.

Sure to drop very suddenly anytime.

Absolute cert to close down stores .

Dear oh dear oh dear.

Lastchance .... if you were a successful unemotional trader, you would change your position now to short - easiest way is through a spread bet.

[lastchance23] 20/8/2020 11:32

Ok thanks, I am just going by HL commentary...

(Sharecast News) - London stocks were set to fall at the open on Thursday following weakness in the US and Asia.

The FTSE 100 was called to open 83 points lower at 6,029.

Investors will be mulling the latest Federal Open Market Committee minutes released overnight.

Capital Economics said: "The minutes of the most recent FOMC policy meeting in late July revealed that Fed officials have gone cold on the possibility of introducing yield curve control measures and now favour introducing some form of outcome- or calendar-based forward guidance in the statement, which would be combined with the adoption of an average inflation target in the longer-run strategy and goals statement."

>>> I looked at a comparison of performance of different countries about a month ago, and the ftse constituents have recovered less than other countries, it seems somewhat rigged and unfair. In the US, the only reason these FANG stocks push the market up is because they all stick a piece of them in an ETF (it must account for 50% of SP).

[monte1] 20/8/2020 10:18

Eh?


Nobody ‘asks’ for it to be opened lower (or higher for that matter) it is a product of the weighted average of orders on the book for the constituent parts of the index, which in turn are event, macro-economic and sentiment driven.

I hope this helps.

[lastchance23] 20/8/2020 10:08

This might be a stupid question, but when the ftse was asked to start lower, who exactly asks for it to start lower??? And why should we get penalised over US and Asia, it never seems to happen other way around when S&P or Nasdaq reach highs, but oh no ftse which has underperformed all other markets get slammed. We need one of these MP's or the central banks to start championing our market, at least trump does what he can to gee up investors. A very broken system.

[mallorca 9] 20/8/2020 08:06

Oh dear oh dear oh dear oh dear !

[lastchance23] 20/8/2020 06:22

fenners66<< are you related to columbo as well??? awareness and information is part of charity, as prevention is better than cure, so even if some of the chips just pay for staff and business costs then it still does good. However, Macmillan are known for distributing a lot of direct support to those that need it.

[fenners66] 19/8/2020 20:03

Looking at the accounts it seems they have donated £250k over 2 years to charitable causes - from the sale of plastic carrier bags.

[fenners66] 19/8/2020 19:58

Looks like (2017) Macmillan spent 74.89% on causes....

[fenners66] 19/8/2020 19:49

"A study by FactCheck ..... small organisations are more likely to spend more of their yearly income on charitable activities, while ‘super-major&#8217; charities (those with annual incomes of £100 million or more) were found to be spending relatively little on their charitable activities."

From 2017

"The average boss of the UK’s top 100 charities is paid £255,000 a year, according to analysis by Third Sector. Fourteen of those charities paid their highest earners more than £300,000."

From the DM

One in five of the UK's biggest charities are 'spending less than half of their income on good causes' (and some spend as little as ONE PER CENT on charitable work)

Big UK charities 'are spending less than half their income on good work'
Nearly 300 allegedly spent just 10% on charitable activities in three years
And Lloyd's Register Foundation used only 1% of money on such causes
Other accused charities include the British Heart Foundation and Age UK
They have been branded 'utter disgrace' following release of new report
Many of the organisations have disputed the 'totally misleading' figures

[fenners66] 19/8/2020 19:43

last chance not that I no of , does he look for facts rather than rhetoric ?

I have looked at the facts on Charity cards before.... 5% donation to a charity that uses 15% of the money given for the cause it was intended..
so 0.75p in the £

Sounds great as a headline "charity card" then you find out the "charity" is just a vehicle to enable others to have well paid jobs or a headline to attract more sales.

So the question is valid - how much of their turnover / profits has been given to charity in 14 years and how much of that got used effectively ?

[lastchance23] 19/8/2020 16:38

Fenners66<< are you related to Simon Cowell??? as you seem quite hard to please... at least they are doing something, and not just siphoning funds using special purpose vehicles and smoke and mirror operations to help the rich get richer. It is a fundamentally good organisation with an ethical purpose.

[fenners66] 19/8/2020 13:00

A great headline

but

"Through the incredible efforts of Card Factory staff and customers, we have now raised over £6 million!

Card Factory has been supporting Macmillan Cancer Support since 2006. So far, we’ve raised over £6 million for people affected by cancer.

Over the last nine years, employees and customers at Card Factory have taken part in multiple fundraising events for Macmillan, ranging from loose change donations to the annual National Bear Raffle, and Christmas card promotions. This incredible support will help to ensure that no one faces cancer alone, so thank you."


Looks like they are acknowledging a lot of that has come from customer donations and fundraising by the staff.
How much has come out of turnover / profits ?

[lastchance23] 19/8/2020 12:52

6 million gbp for macmillan for people affected by cancer by direct donation through CARD

hxxps://www.cardfactory.co.uk/macmillan.html

I don't know how much for other cause cards, they are often linked to a partnership i.e. CRUK, so % of each card.