Card Factory Share Discussion Threads

[mallorca 9] 29/7/2020 12:55

From the RNS 26 June .....

'The Group will, as planned, provide greater detail of the refreshed growth strategy at the virtual capital markets event on 28th July 2020'.

Well they certainly havn't shared this !

I'm wondering whether they are in deep discussions with their lenders !

[mallorca 9] 29/7/2020 11:49

If they're not prepared to disclose their strategy then you can't blame people for getting out.

[mallorca 9] 29/7/2020 10:31

Wiseman,

the fundamentals will come out.
In my view , they are obviously soon going to attempt to raise funds.

[wiseman1967] 29/7/2020 09:03

Mallorca - your comment that net debt is up...it was gbp141.3m in January and on 19 July is GBP144.2m. So technically correct, but not material and quite a way from going bust as you hope.

[mallorca 9] 29/7/2020 08:32

You mustn't get emotionally attached to a share.
I am surprised that yesterday's strategy briefing hasn't been published - it's not even on the website.
Very strange indeed .

[mallorca 9] 29/7/2020 08:27

Because my view is that CARD will go bust.

[lastchance23] 29/7/2020 08:20

Mallorca, why have you got it in for CARD, they celebrate special moments and gift macmillan/CRUK and good causes...there are better trades, Amigo is still a 50/50 at best, probably more like 60/40, and you're pretty much guaranteed bad news with FCA involved...If I was a shorter I'd focus on companies under investigation or hinged by regulators...

[mallorca 9] 29/7/2020 07:52

Nothing re the Strategic Presentation .... very strange !

So all we know then is H1 sales down 50% from previous year
Net debt up to £144m
Some targets re 2025.
An increase in online sales ... still not significant

What are they trying to hide ?

[longwell] 28/7/2020 20:48

Cut dividend for 2 years then resume with growth.

[mallorca 9] 28/7/2020 13:56

£144m net debt !!

Waiting with interest to see the Strategy Presentation.

[lastchance23] 28/7/2020 10:43

Well I did warn Mallorca...He didn't want to believe me...

>>Ok Fenners66, slight confusion with interest, but still a saving of 2m.

[dealer1972] 28/7/2020 10:38

Clearly got it wrong again, oh dear oh dear oh dear ;)

[pioneer2222] 28/7/2020 10:28

Where's Mallorca? Thought this was sinking to total collapse?

[hardupfedup] 28/7/2020 07:07

to make the point -- 1015 open

[fenners66] 27/7/2020 13:58

The VAT deferral relief ran out on the 30-6 and govt vat late penalties are particularly onerous.

[fenners66] 27/7/2020 13:55

No mention of £2m interest saving a month:-


Card Factory PLC Covid 19 update
06/05/2020 7:00am

Card Factory PLC COVID-19 Further Update
23/03/2020 10:23am


Aha - perhaps this is what you read then :-


Card Factory PLC Covid-19 update
23/03/2020 7:00am

"We note and appreciate the various actions taken by the Government to support businesses and their employees. The reduction in business rates provides a monthly cash saving of GBP2.0m, while the deferral of all HMRC payments to the end of June 2020 contributes positively to the short term cash flow."


So it is not interest at all?

The problem is when you add in £2m a month that is not real you can start to convince yourself a business is more viable than it really is,


I guess against that the lack of cash flow and continued costs will mean debt rises and interest cost rises....

[fenners66] 27/7/2020 13:45

Option A1, people stick to the social distancing rules, meet fewer people, only go and buy essentials, stay alive and wait for a vaccine or cure or no more cases - after all the virus cannot survive past how many days without a host?

Life will not just return to normal no matter what size minority want to...
Spain and Florida , Texas , California have shown us what happens when everyone comes over all macho....

[lastchance23] 27/7/2020 11:29

fenners66<< the 2m debt saving was stated by Karen in the trading statement prior to one announcing her departure, HL summarises the trading statements, hence why I stated I may have picked it up there, I just checked but can't see it, it must be in her first covid statement. I don't have time unfortunately to be your secretary, but I know what I read, any company with debt is saving with zero interest rate. The figure I read was 2m per month, honest to god.

Mallorca<<

Option A: Every one stays in their house, never goes to shops, nobody talks to each other, meets up for coffee. Birthdays, Weddings, Driving tests, new babies, anniversary's, all celebrations are celebrated in private without friends or family, cards or balloons. Everyone is a loner, nobody likes each other or communicates...

Option B: People adapt, People wear masks, Life carries on...

[monte1] 27/7/2020 11:09

#2676



They had in excess of 90% open by the end of June.

[greatwhitefunkmaster] 27/7/2020 10:53

*Better off

[greatwhitefunkmaster] 27/7/2020 10:53

Sorry but you are wrong on this, they opened 10% on day 1 but opened others subsequently. Having said that the issue is that they are probably better rent, rate and staff free in many of them.Unable to benefit from the lines punters want - PPE, cleaning, food, alcohol - they will be trading down. VAT deferral, furlough scheme and rent free periods will likely delay the inevitable store closures.

[mallorca 9] 27/7/2020 10:39

From RNS dated 2nd June .....

'Given the recent announcements by the Government we are planning to open 10% of our stores around the 15(th) June, ensuring that we are compliant with the requirements for "Covid-Secure" to enable us to test trading under these new conditions'.

Nothing new has been announced since the above. Currently circa 90% of stores are closed with their staff on Furlough.

The Furlough scheme is the only thing propping this up.

[fenners66] 27/7/2020 09:11

"lastchance23
27 Jul '20 - 04:33 - 2655 of 2655

Fenners66<< I distinctly remember the 2m saving comment on debt interest, I would of used the news updates on HL, it is on one of them on right tab."

I genuinely don't recognise the £2m comment , first you said it was in one of Karen's announcements, so I re-read them, now you say it could be in a HL news feed.

So is it an official RNS or not ?
Can you reproduce?

As far as saying that there are other companies struggling - I have not mentioned going concern, you just did - I have mentioned the specific New Covenant tests being applied here - whether or not others are struggling it changes nothing about the covenant tests applied here.

We have been discussing this for a while

What that does do however is add pressure to the lenders. They know as we do that if CV shutdowns etc continue there will be fallout for them , so they will not sit on their hands.

My contention has been since CF covenant tests have changed ; both by test and by frequency ; from 6 months to monthly, after 4,5,6... months of zero profit that rolling 12 month EBITDA test gets worse.

You think they are happy to move from a 6 month test to monthly?
Do you know what work and added worry that is for the BOD?
Why did they agree?
Because they were over a barrel , they had no choice.

As I said IF the test is debt to EBITDA the ratio doubles once they get to 6 months without any profit , or earlier if those 6 months are a loss, then failing the test comes over the horizon very quickly.

The good thing about that point is - it's maths.
It's not warm fuzzy words or we think this or that... its in the maths.

I walked past the nearby shop again Sat morning 2 customers one way , none the other.....

"the risk is baked into the share price "

we have been discussing this for weeks - you thought the risk was baked into the share price , then , in the 50's now we are around 40.

Its the impact of the rolling EBITDA test, is it rapidly getting worse ?

[lastchance23] 27/7/2020 04:33

Fenners66<< I distinctly remember the 2m saving comment on debt interest, I would of used the news updates on HL, it is on one of them on right tab. Regarding the covenants, apart from having revised covenants, and revised debt financing, and additional covid liquidity options; I have seen several businesses have their covenants waived through this covid situation. Also regarding your going concern comment, this is on nearly half the ftse at the moment, they are all issuing warnings; should card need funding, they have further options, and there are many more steps, and plenty more time, most of the risk is baked into the share price

Mallorca<< It is apparent you just think high street, so its bust...The high street is changing, but if it gets to the point of multiple types of store closure, then it reduces footfall to the other entities such as coffee shops, restaurants, cinemas, clubs, bowling alleys, gyms etc. I feel they will do their best to support businesses like card, because with a rescaling of commercial property from more home working, they are going to want to occupy the space. Long term landlords will also know there is not likely to be a queue of replacement tenants, so you have to take a balanced viewpoint, that under these circumstances businesses that were profitable prior to covid will for the most part be given some room to manouvere. I do feel the online presence does make a difference, and I believe banks will look at the business as a whole in terms of future financing. Restructure and some store closures are possible, but I think they should focus on the most profitable stores in major locations anyway.

On a separate matter got an email about free delivery on personalised cards, not sure what cost is, but I'm guessing they've done a deal with royal mail.