Kinda feel this is getting ready to pop 30p soon |
Within three months we should hear more about the pensión déficit. If they can negotiate lower contributions with the Trustees ( which clearly depends on the Triennial Valuation currently in progress ) , then we should enjoy a major re - rating , if i recall correctly the house broker has suggested a fair valué somewhere in the 70's . Since December's interims the share price performance has been appalling, but i still think that this could turn out to be a stellar performer in 2025. |
Gap up on good volume, this looks promising. Someone maybe accumulating a position. |
I hope its sides are steep and long... |
Is that a bowl I see before me? |
Beginning to edge up after what has been a fairly brutal re-trace.
Would not be at all surprised if C...ney Rebel has started to buy again. |
The last few sessions have been bloody for us Carclo fans, but I have the feeling that we might just close up on the day today ! |
"I'm entitled to my opinion and entitled to post it here." But your opinion is repeatedly misleading. You did not call the shares down from 40p as you suggested earlier, but have been negative on the shares from well before then. And any objective assessment of the share performance might note that Carclo was one of the very top performers of 2024. Yet you didn't "make a bean" on it, and still believe you are calling everything right. Perhaps if you didn't bound in here shouting your negative "opinions" at people who HAVE called it correctly (opinions which have now been corrected on multiple occasions) then people might have more time for your view. Happy new year. |
valueinvturn
I think I'm right in saying CAR has a property portfolio valued at about £23m, presumably freehold and there may be substantial unrealised value in this if they are freehold. However, if they arrange a sale and leaseback of these properties to pay down debt they will then have another liability on top of the pension fund deficit payments which will be a drain on cash as much as the debt interest is.
Ultimately, I believe if there is upside in these shares it is all in the property and not the prospects for trading. |
I'm not trying to present myself as some sort of guru, anymore than you are, I just don't believe the shares are cheap and think from this price there is more downside than up.
I'm entitled to my opinion and entitled to post it here. |
Go fishing for minnows, don't expect whales. |
"There are certainly risks....." This last sentence sums up the situation perfectly. |
Hi mesquida. Yes it comes as no surprise to find someone like Lame Stocks trying to reinvent history to portray himself as some sort of guru. There are certainly risks with Carclo as we have all identified in the past, but it is about whether the potential upside is sufficiently large to make the risk worth taking. |
Wigwammer, i have so enjoyed this last post of yours, keep up the good work ! |
"I've watched these all the way from 40p to 23p." Another poor piece of research. Your negative comments started in mid July when the shares were in the low 20's. So you have have watched the shares nearly double since your negativity started, and simply fall back toward where they were. Thank goodness you didn't arrive with your consensual negativity a few months earlier when the shares were sub 10p. We had other detractors then, but they have gone rather quiet :) |
Arthur what did you mean in your previous message when you wrote that carclo has a property portfolio |
wigwammer
'We can all “wait and see” of course, but commentators don’t make much return I’m afraid.'
I've watched these all the way from 40p to 23p. |
One thing CAR does appear to have in its favour is a large property portfolio. |
i just wonder why the company could not have provided this cogent information provided by 0ur studious investors here |
Wigwammer totally agree with your approach. Always I try to evaluate a Company in terms of EV/FCF multiple. Where in EV I put Total debt / pension liabilities /equity and cash. In the FCF I put the cash generates from operating actvities less outflow due to capex. So for carclo We Will have a compounding effect in the next future because It Will increase FCF and It Will repay debts and pension liabilities |
Yes. But like many of the things you "believe" - they appear dispelled after a small amount of research, at which point you just invent another negative. I do not believe Carclo are making £7m pa free cash flow either, but I do believe they are generating enough to repay both the interest and part of the principal on their liabilities. I also believe they are on the right track to see a further upward step, and a valuation that doesn't reflect that potential. We can all "wait and see" of course, but commentators don't make much return I'm afraid. |
Incidentally I don't believe the company is generating £7m in free cash flow, or any positive cashflow at the moment. Whether that changes remains to be seen. |
Well put, tradertrev. Yes - the deficit can effectively be seen as very long dated debt, comparable if not preferable to the sort/scale used by private equity. And when the equity value is a slither of the enterprise value - as is the case here - great things can happen if the company can organically get their liabilities down. The optionality here was fantastic value at sub 10p, but even after the move we have seen appears highly attractive imo. GLA |
That would be fine, if there was any net income, which currently there's not. |
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