Carclo Share Discussion Threads

[1gw] 15/11/2016 07:34

Yes, pleased with those results. Does Carclo not webcast its analyst presentation? I'd love to hear the Q&A on the pension deficit...

[9degrees] 15/11/2016 07:15

well it seems pension deficit is the only fly in this ointment. This will reverse when bond values improve some day next and we will get our dividend back!
Excellent results

[rivaldo] 15/11/2016 07:15

Absolutely superb H1 results just out - with 5.6p EPS in H1 CAR look set to smash forecasts given that:

(1) the directors expect the company "to have a stronger second half of the financial year"
(2) CAR will benefit much more in H2 from currency fluctuations than they did in H1

If CAR make 12p-13p EPS this year they'll be on a single-digit P/E:



As for bond yields, we may find that the dividend situation and the pension deficit increase have completely reversed by the year end. This is what Paul Scott reported on his blog yesterday:

"Bond yields seem to have been an even bigger mover than equities, rising strongly. I spoke to one UK company CEO last week, who told me that their pension deficit had shrunk by a quarter in just one month (October)."

The share price really should be back at 140p and upwards as a minimum given that all 3 divisions are performing so well - and that their prospects going forward look just as good.

[yump] 14/11/2016 11:20

Well I've had a few to sit on for a few months, on the basis that if the 30 year bond bull market has ended, things will get much easier for CAR.

[gleach23] 14/11/2016 11:05

Regarding bond yields, when I looked last week they were back at the same levels as when the dividend was declared in June so it'll be interesting to see what is said...

[nigelmoat] 14/11/2016 10:44

Looking forward to Interim Results due here tomorrow.

[yump] 14/11/2016 10:18

Anyone going to comment on the rising bond yields, as the falling yields were raised as a (negative) issue re: the pension fund...

[rivaldo] 11/11/2016 12:06

Positive comment from a local CAR CEO on the new acquisition:



"Carclo Expands In Northeast

Carclo Technical Plastics announced the acquisition Derry, New Hampshire based Precision Tool and Die in a deal worth more than $6 Million. The acquisition expands Carclo’s US footprint adding a base of operations in the Northeast to continue its growth in the region.

President and Division Chief Executive Mark Charbonneau said” The acquisition of Precision Tool and Die will not only bring synergy to both PTD and Carclo’s customers in expanded capabilities marrying prototyping, tool making and volume manufacturing but will also enable Carclo to grow in the region close it its customers”

“We’ve seen significant new business and opportunities from major OEMs in the region and it was only natural that to continue our growth and follow our philosophy of being close to our customers that we target the Northeast as our next logical step” he added."

[illiswilgig] 10/11/2016 21:02

I've also just added a few at 112p for the first time for a while.

[1gw] 10/11/2016 11:19

I've just bought some more for the first time since early 2014 (when I bit the bullet and sold about half my holding at a 50% loss).

Despite its somewhat accident-prone history, underlying trading seems to have been quite good recently and I'm hoping that bond yields are finally heading sustainably in the "right" direction (i.e. up) so there is potential for the pension troubles to reduce if not reverse.

[gleach23] 09/11/2016 15:46

Some volume going through at 110 this afternoon.

Chart looks in dire need of such an update rivaldo.

[rivaldo] 07/11/2016 13:30

Agreed about this being a good buying point. Given 11.16p consensus EPS forecast for this year CAR are almost on a single-figure P/E.

We know the H1 results will be good, and it wouldn't surprise me in the favourable currency environment to see CAR exceed full year estimates.

[boadicea] 04/11/2016 11:17

Very confusing traded prices this morning. Some of the 'sells' are certainly buys and may be some the other way too. A large proportion of trades (but not amounting to much volume) are on ICAP/ISDX where a totally unrealistic 20p spread is quoted.

Unless something else is going wrong, implying advance leaking, it should represent a good buying point.

Note: I am currently quoted buy/sell at 114.9 / 113p for a modest quantity. Official LSE mid price 112.5p and ISDX mid 110p. Presumably mm's are wary and anxious to keep a level book which could lead to sharp moves either way on a relatively small trade imbalance.

[dontay] 03/11/2016 18:43

Half term figures due out in a couple of weeks... the 15th

[bigtbigt] 03/11/2016 15:36

Good ...people are starting to buy at these levels :-)

When is the next update from the company, presumably showing improvement thanks to the weak pound?

[bigtbigt] 02/11/2016 14:34

OK. I've nibbled. Got in at 118.4 ...so glad I held off a few days ago when offered 121.9 - i.e., >3% saved :-)

Some danger of catching a falling knife here, so I only nibbled and can therefore buy more if it does go to the 100-110 range (or lower)

With worries about pension deficit, and risk of generalised market sell off, I am emotionally ready for a possible fall from here. But equally the pound is low and that will help earnings significantly these next many months.

Over a many month to few year time frame, with averaging in further if the possibility arises, this play is likely to come good, IMO.

[longshanks] 02/11/2016 13:49

This is proving very weak. I suspect many have hit stop losses and sold, causing it to drop further. I feel I should have sold myself given just how weak this is.Overall though, I think the fears misplaced about any long term problems and a recovery will happen in due course. If it stays low, I will probably sell before the tax year end, offset profits elsewhere and then buy back.

[hopeful holder] 31/10/2016 19:47

Sturmey, I'm in agreement with you and whilst this stock may still be weak, the potential is still high and a trend reversal likely.I'm looking at a small additional purchase soon.

[bigtbigt] 31/10/2016 18:13

I fear a big drop

110 or even 100 ???

Scary stock

[sturmey] 28/10/2016 15:17

Thanks amoore70

When even the holders get fed up and have doubts, that is a massive buy signal.

I have been a holder since early 2013 when I paid as much as 490p. I have averaged down quite aggressively but am still well under the water. I bought more at around 127p before the recent placing at 120p.

For what it's worth, I think the shares are fair/good value at the present price. If I did not have an overweight position, I would buy more.

1) Since the dividend suspension, bond yields have risen sharply (not my area off expertise). Possibility of dividend being paid (eventually) could send shares sharply higher.

2) Institutional take-up at 120p suggests serious investor interest at that level.

3) Weak £ should be good for forward profits.

Rather than selling, amoore70 should fill his boots and buy a lot more.

[bigtbigt] 28/10/2016 13:48

Thanks amoore70
When even the holders get fed up and have doubts, that is a massive warning signal

[amoore70] 28/10/2016 08:31

Long term holder but seriously had enough of this stock, should be a lot higher but always disappoints. Lost patience with it and may sell and move onto something else.

[bigtbigt] 28/10/2016 02:26

I came very close today.
Quoted price was 121.9
And I still fear that things smell a bit funny
So I decided to wait
...falling knife risk

[gleach23] 27/10/2016 15:32

The offer hit your target of 120 earlier bigtbigt - I'd assumed yours was the 10k purchase :p

[bigtbigt] 27/10/2016 15:15

not yet low enough for me to buy - but perhaps nearly there