Canadian Overseas Petrol... Share Discussion Threads

[gazza102] 20/12/2016 13:03

He jumped ship and lost the lot. A lesson for everyone.

[doshdabbler] 20/12/2016 13:02

Mr K, Get into NCCL. They're about to close the deal with SEP.

[deanroberthunt] 20/12/2016 12:56

your popularity is directly proportional to your positivity.

[deanroberthunt] 20/12/2016 12:51

it was so funny, the prodigal son returned to rob the household.

[donald trumpton] 20/12/2016 12:44

lol

easily done

[deanroberthunt] 20/12/2016 12:39

they miss you over at fortress KIBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM.... :)

like a hole in the head.....gamekeeper turned poacher

went from No.1 fan to public enemy number 1 in 2 posts :)

[mrkeysersoze] 20/12/2016 12:09

Zengas,

Your post #1649 did I miss something connected to COPL or not?

Mr K.

[deanroberthunt] 20/12/2016 12:02

could get a retest intraday of the hoicha min chazu mid fib cloud Bollinger range....2.7 - 3.2p

[deanroberthunt] 20/12/2016 11:52

offer going up

[deanroberthunt] 20/12/2016 11:42

big bounce coming

[presto77] 20/12/2016 11:29

Genel

as entertaining as you are I have to take umbrage with the told you so/puff piece you posted a few posts back.

COPL was a punt pure and simple and for the author to suggest that this well was "just another well for Exxon" is rather spurious.

whilst the effect on a super-major is nothing, they do not go around wasting tens of millions on wells in this oil price environment....ever.

fullstop

misleading Monday morning quarter-backing....punts a punt, know one said it was a sure thing but to insinuate it wasn't a well thought out punt is just rubbish.

[steelwatch] 20/12/2016 11:29

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[mrkeysersoze] 20/12/2016 11:27

Big sell limits this morning on the rsp

2,000,000 @1.51p
3,000,000 @1.45p

Mr K.

[mr genel energy] 20/12/2016 11:04

good post deanroberhunt...

your on the right wavelenght.

started to suss markets out and how they work.

[deanroberthunt] 20/12/2016 11:02

maybe 1p....ish

but the usual tactics will apply now, they'll somehow get the circus involved to find a way at ramping this up from here, so that they can get the placing away and allow placees to forward sell the shares at significantly higher prices than the the placing price....

so sell into any huff and puff news and bulletin board moron buying, and get out before the placing is announced.....doing the numbers they'll run out of money around Feb 2017 timeframe, based on historical cash burn...

[mr genel energy] 20/12/2016 10:54

BRILLIANT post.10 out of 10.



It never ceases to amaze me just how much some are prepared to risk on very high risk AIM companies where the odds are against them, and this is a sure-fire way to quickly see all of your money go up in smoke!

This is especially applicable to oil exploration, where the outcome of a single drill is likely to have a huge effect on the share price of these small companies, but where private investors tend to focus solely on how much money they will make based on the supposedly huge, but as yet undiscovered, resources that are being targeted. When people on the bulletin boards start discussing which model of Ferrari they are going to buy with their profits, it is usually time to run for the hills!

In recent years we have seen a number of these high profile drills come and go with huge amounts of hype, which in most case ends in disappointment for those invested – the latest in a long line of failures being the Mesurado-1 well in Liberia, in which AIM minnow Canadian Overseas Petroleum (COPL) owned 17%, with ExxonMobil being the operator and owning the remaining 83%.

For ExxonMobil this was just another drill and when it reached total depth and no hydrocarbons were indicated during logging, with the well being plugged and abandoned, it was no big deal, but it had a dramatic effect on Canadian Overseas, with the share price dropping over 80%.

Just a few weeks back, I wrote a piece suggesting that it might be a good idea for people to bank the 200% odd profit that they would be sat on if they had also followed my buy suggestion earlier in the year. My sell suggestion – or at the very least to just leave some freebies running – was met with howls of derision by the usual bulletin board posters, with the usual accusations that I just wanted a cheaper entry.

This was far from true as there is no way I’d risk my money these days on something where the odds were far from in my favour, with the drill having had just a 70% chance of finding hydrocarbons, and less than a 20% chance of anything found being commercial (or more than an 80% chance of it not being commercial).

With these types of odds you might get lucky every now and again and have a big win, but if you keep on playing them then you are bound to end up losing, and you are totally ignoring the risk to your capital and doing nothing to try and protect it.

Many of the more sensible investors who got in early will of course have banked a nice profit – with those who took part in the last placing having free warrants that they could exercise in the event of oil being found in any amount – and that was always going to be the sensible play from a risk management perspective.

I have seen some on the bulletin boards suggesting that the company is now a good buy at this level, but I certainly wouldn’t be rushing to buy into it, even though its market cap has now dropped back below £10 million.

It currently remains unclear as to whether there will be another drill on this licence – that should become clearer once all of the data has been analysed – and if there is, then Canadian will still be carried for up to a total of $120 million, more than enough for a second exploration well, should there be one.

Aside from that though, things don’t look great financially for the company and I would expect to see further funds being raised very soon – I am a little surprised that the company didn’t try and raise more money when the drill was underway and share price was much higher, in a similar way to 88 Energy last year.

At the end of September the company only had $3.7 million left in the bank – plus it will no longer get any funds from the warrants attached to the last placing as the strike price was $0.095 (close to 8p). The level of cash burn has been high for the company, even taking into account the listing on AIM, and of the $8.25 million gross raised at the end of April, $4.55 million of that had gone just five months later. It doesn’t help that it typically has been burning through $1.36 million per quarter!

It does of course still have the 50:50 joint venture with Shoreline on the OPL226 licence in Nigeria, which does already have some contingent resources booked, but it will definitely need funding to be able to carry out any sort of work there.

So even if you are still interested in this one, I would certainly suggest waiting until after the next placing has happened and the future plan for the Liberia licence becomes clearer.

If you were one of those who got badly stung when the news dropped, then put it down to experience, but make sure that you actually learn something from it and do more to protect your capital in the future!

Filed under:
canadian overseas cash exploration exxonmobil fundraising liberia mesurado-1 nigeria oil opl226 risk share price shares shoreline warrants
Never miss a story.

[deanroberthunt] 20/12/2016 10:50

dood,

been telling you for long enough now to forget GENL and buy ENQ and IAE....both have already 4 & 6 bagged respc since Oil lows, with much more to come should Oil hit $65 by summer next year..

the other big play imvho for 2017 is Silver....

[gimmetheloot] 20/12/2016 10:42

Here it is guys. Latest video!

hxxp://www.simbaenergy.ca/data/media/Simba-Energy-EGME.mp4

Excellent analysis of progress so far. 3 Billon boe potential to wet the appetite ;-))

[deanroberthunt] 20/12/2016 10:42

stop picking dogs...

Genel is lower now than when Oil was $28......that's telling you something