Canadian Overseas Petrol... Share Discussion Threads

[nicky21] 17/5/2018 18:35

can anyone out there predict an arcurate price when the following has happened

Approval,funding and drilling results.

am trying to predict but its confusing.

i would say between 7p-15p???

[nicky21] 17/5/2018 16:32

hopefully stabilise at these levels.

[nicky21] 17/5/2018 16:10

Edgein you seem to know your stuff.

Thanks.


a 10 Baggar or more in the making here.

[nicky21] 17/5/2018 14:27

seems the market has not woken up to the Nigerian potential.they still seem hungover over Liberia hence the very low share price with a market cap of around £12m.

[edgein] 17/5/2018 14:24

Nicky,

Yes, its just a waiting game until then. Hopefully Art has got everything else lined up, seemed pretty certain he was ready Q 4 last year. Its just put your feet up and wait for the Nigerians to do some work. Hopefully the wait is nearly over the and the last two days is a sign of a leak, at least its woken up a few folks to research what they've bought and the assets here are significant. If all falls into place and they drill in '18 there'll plenty of bags to be had on this price.

Regards,
Ed.

[nicky21] 17/5/2018 14:19

really need the NNPC to give the go a head.

the more i research this compnay the more better it looks.
on approval it could hit 3p and then on funding 5p.

[edgein] 17/5/2018 14:06

Nicky,

Yes if they're on track for their 20,000bopd production target by year two then that looks potentially possible.

Regards,
Ed.

[edgein] 17/5/2018 14:04

Clearly that's not all to the bottom line etc as they would have debt to service etc etc. Transportation costs royalties etc.

Regards,
Ed.

[nicky21] 17/5/2018 14:01

cheers mate

so we could be looking at a £500m plus company if oil stays around $80.

[edgein] 17/5/2018 13:56

They've spent around $66m to date (Essar), OPEX estimated at $42m per year, at 6,000bopd that's reves of approx $175m pa gross (Essar 80%). So lots of past costs and hopefully imminent development costs. At $80/bbl its a lucrative asset. Clearly if they continue development to the later phases and full 29 wells and 50,000bopd its very significant. Closest comparison would be SLE with 50mmbbls of 2P through their indirect interest in a licence in Nigeria. Valued currently at £100m, net production there is 3,500-5000bopd. If COPL proceed and get the P50, even the P90 its company making. Just need the Nigerians to sign off on Essar deal and completion of financing which according to the company they've made significant progress towards.

Regards,
Ed.

[edgein] 17/5/2018 13:50

Nicky,

Take a look, they've multiple appraisal targets with the first that's drill ready being Noa Northeast, its 53-94-161mmbbls (P90-P50-P10), so a company maker if successful. Its an appraisal to Anyala, Nexen. Anyala had something like 16m of shallow gas pay and 54m or 180ft of untested oil pay deeper. So upside is substantial, whole block has at least 250mmbbls P50 from multiple targets. Production profile is year 1 6000bopd, year 2 20,000bopd and peak production of 50,000-60,000bopd. So very material upside if/when all permissions are in. Company were going to drill Q4 17, but still waiting. If/when they get permission they hope to get straight into the operational phase according to recent release (11/5/18).

For upside check this out:



Regards,
Ed.

[nicky21] 17/5/2018 13:37

how much is opl 226 is worth with the oil price this high??

[ultra capital] 17/5/2018 12:07

Took profit at 0.75. Good luck guys.

[edgein] 17/5/2018 11:34

"ShoreCan has applied to the concessionaire NNPC for formal consent for the change in control of Essar Nigeria. Essar Nigeria holds an attractive oil appraisal and development project in shallow to mid-water offshore Nigeria on its 100% holding in OPL 226. Drilling of the first appraisal well is planned to commence in 2018. ShoreCan continues building a portfolio of exploration and development assets in sub-Saharan Africa. To date, ShoreCan has taken a position in Nigeria and the Company and Shoreline have been awarded the PT-5b exploration license onshore Mozambique in the 5(th) Licensing Round adjacent to the producing Pande-Temane Gas and light oil field complex."

The consent for change of control of Essar was expected in Q3 last year and the share price surged to in excess of 1.6p in anticipation of drilling. So the market is now expecting the permission to be granted soon I guess with the revival of the share price. I guess folks are now also looking at the Moz licence, its not just Nigeria anymore that could be a company maker here. If they get approval for control of Essar, financing complete and head for drilling its a substantial asset with near term production. They intend to produce from the modified rig so no long development times. If all the above goes ahead then I expect the share price to be multiples of where it is now, but its Nigeria, so high risk, high reward.

Regards,
Ed.

[jace86] 17/5/2018 10:32

Seems to be hovering well at .75-.8... I wonder where this is going...? Movements off the appraisal well being drilled at OLP 266? Someone been leaking info or is it all speculation?

[fillipe] 17/5/2018 10:06

COPL really quite whooshy, as I type - recent down-dip has been quickly bought out.

f

[fillipe] 17/5/2018 10:01

Being paid over, to get stock.

f

[phoenix equity] 17/5/2018 08:17

Heavy selling this morning

[edgein] 17/5/2018 07:48

Ride,

He seems pretty confident that he can get the cash after they get the Nigerian approval:

"Since our last report, we have made significant progress on securing a financing package for OPL 226 appraisal/development project offshore Nigeria, and the necessary government consents. Our management team, who are also shareholders, share the concern of the shareholders who contact us about the length of time it is taking to move forward on this project. Unfortunately, most if not all of the issues have been outside of our control, but together the Company and our joint venture partner Shoreline Energy are focused on bringing this part of the project to a conclusion. With Brent crude oil prices hovering in excess US$75 per barrel, the economics of our interests in OPL 226 are very attractive and should allow us to conclude this part of the process and move quickly to the next or operational phase."

If/when they get approval for the Essar transaction from the local government it could move quite quickly, sounds as if they still think they can drill this year. Like SRSP a firm timetable to drilling and production would get a multibag here. One thing Art is good at is finding oil. Oilexco had an impressive record at finding the stuff.

Regards,
Ed.

[mrshaungcm] 17/5/2018 07:13

no rns - up we go i hope

[mrshaungcm] 16/5/2018 21:57

2 month high at the end of play on tsx

[mrshaungcm] 16/5/2018 20:24

TSX movement?

[ride daice] 16/5/2018 17:52

Surely Art can pull off the financing package with Brent sniffing around 80 bucks ?

[edgein] 16/5/2018 17:39

Oilexco would move vigorously when drilling wells in the direction of the well result normally. I wonder if its the Nigerians buying in before the ok is given to the Essar deal and they can then move towards financing/spudding/development.

Regards,
Ed.

[shirley83] 16/5/2018 16:33

No RNS tomorrow.. Timber.. But if RNS well done every one..