Cambridge Cognition Share Discussion Threads

[40 fathoms] 30/1/2024 13:15

Announced today. Obviously not significant enough to RNS but revenue is revenue and it is also pretty interesting project with potential follow on opportunities.

[lawson27] 30/1/2024 09:35

Joined you for the recovery here, right sector for 2024 imo, GLA

[nchanning] 30/1/2024 09:24

Slightly confusing update as to how operating profit could be so far ahead of expectations whilst cash was far behind . If the current run rate of profitability is sustainable this is looking very interesting . Layer on some revenue growth with these gross margins and something spectacular could happen here

[jasperlachat] 30/1/2024 09:21

Happy with the update. Thanks 40 Fathoms.

[40 fathoms] 30/1/2024 08:42

@Cerrito - I can't imagine there will be any going concern issue. Dowgate pegs the current (31/12/23) net cash postion +@200k. On current outlook 2024 should be profitable and comfortably cashflow positive*. It is also worth remembering how the cash vs recognition works on most contracts. They get a significant amount of payment on the software sale which is at the start of any trial.

*They indicated at the time of purchase of both Winterlight and Clinpal that based on the book of business at the time of acquisition they would not be significantly revenue/cash generative until 2024.

[cerrito] 30/1/2024 08:21

Yes 40 Fathoms good to see H2 profitability results and indeed H2 revenue at £7.5m, but revenue increase 2023 over 2022 disappointing given acquisitions.
I see cash has gone up since June 30 by £1.3m from £1.9m to £3.2m following the £3m loan so a cash burn of £1.7m and this will increase in April once they start repaying the loan.Reading the Going Concern statement when they publish the AR will be interesting.
Difficult for me to see basis for significant relating of shares.

[40 fathoms] 30/1/2024 07:17

Excellent trading update, everything seems nicely ahead of expectations and a couple of decent new board additions to boot.

[bedford1976] 24/1/2024 18:07

Purchased a few more of the a ridiculously low price 49.80 pence. Crazy price the cognitive assessment market is growing at roughly 30% a year right through to 2030. Nice to see a British business one of tfe market leaders in this sector. I also live on the Oxford - Cambridge arc so keen to see them do well.

[40 fathoms] 21/1/2024 04:26

Is about 1.5 years out of date but gives a bit of an insight in to where Monument Therapeutics was and what it does.

[earwacks] 18/1/2024 20:47

Many thanks yet again Fathom. Looking forward to Monument news, as indeed cog end of month. Not expecting to much movement up yet. Even record results don’t impress at the moment! Gl

[40 fathoms] 15/1/2024 13:08

@earwacks - A bit of a difficult one to pin down exactly but if we assume, as appears to be the case, they are making good progress in both of the initial indications they are targeting, then we are probably looking at a total value for Monument of GBP 12.5 million - GBP 20 million at current valuation. However, if they were able sell on either drug they are developing, both of which are focused on large indications, it will be in GBP 100's of millions.

As a point of reference when they first spun out and raised capital the valuation of Monument was already @GBP 5 million and we have seen a significant amount of progress since then. I think it is worth keeping in mind the approach they are taking as it significantly increases the chances of success.

We hold a 25% stake in Monument and have a double digit, gross top line royalty over all sales and that is worth more than the equity position.

[earwacks] 07/1/2024 02:54

Thanks for the updates Fathom. I guess the next results won’t tell us much in terms of figures, but very keen to buy more at these levels when funds allow . Looks insanely oversold, but depends how the market react to results end of month. Any idea of market cap for Monument? Looks a tiny company.

[40 fathoms] 05/1/2024 00:24

Things ticking along at Monument Therapeutics - as an aide-memoire Monument Therapeutics was spun out of Cambridge Cognition about 2.5 years ago. We own @ 25% of the equity, we have a double digit top line gross royalty on all commercial proceeds and we own, with recent patents in place, the underlying technology for both of the digital biomarkers that will be paired with both APIs that they are developing. All of this sits in our books for less than 100k.

Jenny Barnett, Monument CEO and former Cambridge Cognition CSO added this comment when posting this news to her LinkedIn page

"We've got a *lot* of exciting news to share in the coming months :-)"

So it looks like there is more to come from this direction.

[40 fathoms] 29/12/2023 00:03

For ease of digestion I have posted this summary rather than the paper itself. It demonstrates the power of the Winterlight technology and in diagnostics applications in indications beyond those traditionally viewed as the BIG CNS conditions.

[40 fathoms] 16/12/2023 03:07

@Cerrito - There has been more integration than the website would appear to suggest. In particular if you look at the academic posters that have been produced this year they are clearly presented jointly and also that a number of Winterlight labs staff have taken on senior roles within the Cambridge Cognition Group.

@Smithie6 - I think it might be worth taking a second glance - Was profitable last year and management say will be next year and beyond. Was also cashflow positive the year before last, last year and should be next year and beyond. Clearly this year will be both loss making and cash flow negative, principally due to the effect of integrating two loss making divisions via acquisition.

[cerrito] 15/12/2023 20:16

Thanks for that 40 Fathoms.
I have yet to listen but did go on the Winterlight website for the first time and saw that there was no reference to their relationship with COG except the Jan 11 23 article-the latest one in their news section.
I note trading over the last 3 weeks has been miniscule.
Those who bought sub 50 will do well.

[smithie6] 15/12/2023 19:47

What is the situation here ?

...all looks a bit dismal at first sight. Keeps eating money, no ?

[40 fathoms] 13/12/2023 00:11

Published a few days ago, provides a bit of an insight as to what is going on at Winterlight labs.

[earwacks] 22/11/2023 10:12

Saw on Stockopedia someone asked the question ‘ is it time to bail on auditor resignation?’ I think the process of tendering for a new auditor might explain some of the recent fall, at least I hope so. Thornton resigned with no issues. The new auditors are Crowe uk voted one of the top accountancy firms in 2022. There have been a number of late audits this year, mostly due to work load. that’s my interpretation :) gl

[40 fathoms] 10/11/2023 11:10

Blood based biomarkers (tests) are going to be an extremely important diagnostic tool both in terms of determining pathology but also in determining treatment. However they will not replace cognitive testing. What they will replace is PET scans or lumber puncture and CSF testing. The cognitive test will always be the first step in the diagnostic pathway as it is cheap and will provide the cost justification (rule out other possible issues) to undertake additional testing. In the US currently the total cost of diagnosis is between $6,000 and $8,500, even with blood based biomarkers this is likely to still be close to $2,000.

@Cerrito - I have occasional access to a bloomberg and used their tracking service.

[cerrito] 09/11/2023 18:55

40 Fathoms
Thanks from me as well for your explanation as to the fall.
Which share tracking service do you use, as a matter of interest?

[earwacks] 09/11/2023 16:06

Minsky If it is there is a complete misunderstanding of what COG do. Which is quite possible.there is plenty of info out there to explain

[minsky] 09/11/2023 13:59

Could some of today's drop be related to the story about a blood test for dementia?

[earwacks] 09/11/2023 11:21

Thanks Fathom. Seems the most plausible explanation. Also possibly why they went the rather generous loan note route. A placing just before end of lock in period might not have gone down very well. On the business side the news has been very positive.

[40 fathoms] 09/11/2023 09:43

All of the shareholders that took equity in the Winterlight transaction had stakes below 3% hence no need to RNS.

I got the information from a shareholder tracking service. The two shareholders I referred to are First Star Venture Fund II and Novatio LP.