Cambridge Cognition Share Discussion Threads

[igbertsponk] 03/8/2021 10:37

Nice they're "profitable" on an adjusted earnings before costs basis..,

[40 fathoms] 03/8/2021 07:48

Lot to like in that trading update and still lots more to come.

[40 fathoms] 21/7/2021 07:32

We are due a trading update and by COGs standards they are a bit slow with this one. If it does not come in the next 24 or 48 hours I have a sneaking feeling it will come with news, as there would be no other reason to delay vs previous years.

Either a big contract win or collaboration would be nice. M&A, either as acquirer or acquired would be less welcome. I think the chances of a takeover approach in the next 18 months are very high indeed, one thing I am certain about is that whatever the price is I will not like it.

[smithie6] 12/7/2021 16:10

good info

thanks

[40 fathoms] 12/7/2021 13:07

Order intake over the period looks like this.

2019 - Total order intake GBP 4.9million of which GBP 1.3 million were substantial and required an RNS.

2020 - Total order intake GBP 12.7 million of which GBP 4.9 million were substantial and required an RNS.

2021 - Total order intake yet to be announced of which GBP 6.4 million YTD have been substantial and required an RNS.

I am quietly confident that we will break GBP 20 million for the full financial year and when smoothed out for timing of larger contracts should be looking at 15% to 20% annual growth in order intake over the following 5 years. So looking for @ GBP 40 million of annual order intake by 2026. At that point I don't think it would be wildly optimistic to add on GBP 10 million of annual healthcare related revenue.

[smithie6] 12/7/2021 12:08

2020 order intake of 5.9 million was in a Covid year. reduced I assume

How might 2021 compare for order intake with 2019 ( a pre Covid year) ?

[smithie6] 09/7/2021 15:09

good info. thanks for sharing

('if' the co. were to have an order intake of 17-20 million this year versus 6 million last year that would be a very big % increase)

[40 fathoms] 09/7/2021 14:51

Just thought it was interesting to note that in the whole of 2020 there were GBP 5.9 million of contracts signed that required RNSs and already in 2021 we have surpassed that number with GBP 6.4 million announced. Given the overall highly supportive back drop I am very confident that we will see a significant number of additional large contracts signed before the year is out. My best guess is that we will see order in take of at very least GBP 17.5 million this year and with the strong possibility that may get well over GBP 20 million if we land a big AD contract. Things are looking very good indeed.

[ywdis] 09/7/2021 08:53

Coincidentally Open Orphan today announced a contract win for clinical trials , not the same arena as COG but makes one think

[40 fathoms] 09/7/2021 07:27

Another nice RNS today... and it is not even in AD. The cognitive effects of many drugs and treatments is becoming a focus for the FDA. Especially as we move more and more towards the use of immunotherapy in oncology. We know that CAR-T cell therapy is associated with frequent neurological toxicities. But we still understand very little about the possible side effects of immunotherapy agents on cognitive function and this is an important challenge in future clinical trials, as well as better understanding the underlying mechanisms through preclinical animal models.

[smithie6] 02/7/2021 11:38

I guess that the recent spin off deal has gone down well with the mkt since a chunk of costs has been removed from the COG accounts which instantly improves the profitability of COG

& it shows the quality & desirability for the COG skills/products which I believe increases their value

[40 fathoms] 02/7/2021 07:35

Smithie, Thank you, happy you are making some money here.

I think there is an awful lot more to come from Cambridge in the next 12 months. I see FinnCap took their estimate up to 190p yesterday. The company is a bit cautious around guidance (I actually don't mind that) but I am going to be interested to see what they do to there forecasts for second half. Just applying the normal margin and time based attribution to the new larger contracts announced I reckon we will see a PBT of @900k this FY. If we apply the same to next year and make some mild assumptions about a pick up in contract wins in the 2nd half I reckon we are between 3.5 million and 4 million for 2022. With lots of upside if a healthcare deal is signed. If i am right about PBT forecast for next year what would be a fair P/E forecast 20x, 25x, 30x ? Any of these P/Es would provide us with very decent upside from here and there is possibility of substantial positive surprises in the revenue and PBT numbers.

[smithie6] 01/7/2021 11:33

40Fathoms

thanks for your informed posts

especially the ones at around 140p giving your opinion that the FDA giving drug permission would lead to more turnover for COG

I liked the logic so I bought some more shares since it seemed like a 'lose nothing & phps make a gain' type deal

& it's nice that it turned out to be the latter case !

[yus777] 01/7/2021 11:14

delayed big buy popped up stillnt trade at 184p

[dave4545] 01/7/2021 11:01

Remember when this was 22p offer and nobody would touch it.

8 times the price buyers all over it.

It's done well though, totally turned it's business around

[yus777] 01/7/2021 10:59

looking very strong to run up to 200p n beyond nt trade only at 183p zak will be all over this

[smithie6] 01/7/2021 09:17

directors have been working hard in recent weeks !

[40 fathoms] 01/7/2021 07:50

MM84, todays RNS answers your question about the spin out of Monument Therapeutics.

"Cambridge Cognition Holdings Plc (AIM: COG), which develops and markets digital solutions to assess brain health, is pleased to announce the completion of the spin-out of Monument Therapeutics Limited ("Monument Therapeutics"), a drug development company applying digital phenotyping to central nervous system ("CNS") disorders."

A huge amount of optionality in this announcement, we have @36% of a funded early stage drug development company with a potentially large royalty stream in the event of commercialisation. The initial focus is on POCD (post operative cognitive dysfunction)and cognitive impairment in schizophrenia.

If the royalties are top line and given the size of the addressable markets being targeted the amounts involved could be very significant indeed.

[yus777] 28/6/2021 12:18

barchart all resistence broken so tommorow should be even better day 200p roll on

[yus777] 28/6/2021 11:54

looking very very strong nt to buy at 165p no shares available mms very short 180p very soon

[yus777] 28/6/2021 11:25

zak will be all over this strong finnish today then boom tommorow get in while you can short term target 275p

[yus777] 28/6/2021 11:22

should be 1.75 with that 10,000 buy over ask mms no shares thell have to strike it up

[yus777] 28/6/2021 11:20

discuising reported buys as sells the trolls