Cambian Share Discussion Threads

[bennytheball] 30/4/2014 09:41

Other than 'in line with expectations', the interim statement isn't much help either!

[bennytheball] 29/4/2014 08:21

Sorry - not sure of the forecast.

[mintitan] 29/4/2014 07:53

Hi Benny. Do you know what the Profit Before Tax forecast is for 2014? I'm not familiar with EBITDA etc. I'm not that clever!

[bennytheball] 26/4/2014 15:11

As for debt, would like to see the exact numbers, but recall it's low for this sector as most acquisitions funded by the exiting shareholders rather than loans. My notes say £325m (?) property assets, similar total liabilities and £125m net assets.

Not clear about 2014 forecast, but the link below re Priory results suggest the market is buoyant as the dust settles after the last bout of commissioning restructuring -

PRIORY GROUP NO. 3 PLC Results for the Quarter and Year Ended 31 December 2013



"•Revenue for Q4 2013 increased by £8.2m to £124.2m, a rise of 7.1% (Q4 2012: £116.0m), predominantly due to the Healthcare division, driven by NHS Acute bed demand ...
"2013 was an important year in the Group's development. The uncertainty caused by the changes to the commissioning landscape resulted in a period of short term disruption for the Group's healthcare business but this has now dissipated and the Group is beginning to see increasing opportunities to build on our already strong relationships with commissioners..."

[bennytheball] 26/4/2014 11:52

Hi mintitan
Edited this having checked my numbers again.
My notes say £38m EBITDA (£44m excluding exceptionals).
With the mc now £388m, that's a more realistic x10.2 P/E (x8.9 excluding exceptionals)
But heh - glad at least I'm not talking to myself any more - that and a modest increase to 226p, I'd say it's been a good week ;-)

[mintitan] 25/4/2014 21:18

This company came up on my radar so am doing some research. I understand in 2013 they made £7.8m PBT. Against their current market cap of £379m, that's a PBT to MCAP of approx 49 x. Seems rather a lot to me! Am I missing something? Are their any forecasts for PBT for 2014? And what is their net debt? I really like the sector but would like to see how the fundamentals stack up before investing. Thanks in advance.

[bennytheball] 22/4/2014 13:28

From the RNSs so far, it looks like about 21% of the shares are in institutional hands, reducing the effective free float. (I assume they won't be selling anywhere near the IPO price of 225p.) Interesting to see what happens once the news flow starts.

F&C Asset Management PLC 15/4 8,750,000 5.08%
Polar Capital LLP 15/4 5,504,906 3.19%
BlackRock, Inc. 16/4 8,875,000 5.15%
Schroder Investment Management Ltd 22/4 12,700,000 7.369%

[bennytheball] 14/4/2014 09:51

The London Stock Exchange ended the volatile week by welcoming three new listings to the market: Polypipe, Exova and Cambian. Crucially, the trio were a welcome break from the glut of technology listings and a return to more traditional British companies. While industrials Exova and Polypipe saw relatively steady trading, Cambian was blasted by investors.

[bennytheball] 11/4/2014 11:29

Thanks 5bag.

Been playing with bank stocks and oil for a few years, but I've been keen to get back into healthcare sector since making a lot on MMG a few years back.

Cambian looks like a quality company, poised for growth in a market (learning disability, special education, mental healthcare) that should come back into favour about now after a bad time with NHS commissioning changes and negativity around Southern Cross, Winterbourne, etc. Priory have just posted improved results.

I see it's down currently from IPO price 225p, but assuming there's virtually no market yet. will be interesting to see the volume of trades as well as the share price over the coming weeks.

Have opened a long position with IG for £50/pt at 202p.

[5bag] 11/4/2014 10:50

Nice one Benny. GL. :-)