Cadogan Energy Solutions Share Discussion Threads

[targatarga] 01/5/2019 10:46

Another opportunity to add!

[neo26] 30/4/2019 10:26

This is CAD

[johncasey] 30/4/2019 10:16

big news out at KDNC

Highlights from Hastings News Release:

· In principal eligibility for the German Government UFK scheme confirmed for up to USD 140 million (approx AUD 200 million) from Euler Hermes.

· UFK scheme offers concessionary project finance loan terms for a period of seven years.

· Progressing on due diligence on the technical, economic, environmental, legal and special aspects of the Yangibana project.

The confirmation is based on the understanding that a German Tier 1 company will be the off-taker for a minimum of 5,000 tonnes of Mixed Rare Earth Carbonate (MREC) per annum from Hastings' Yangibana Rare Earth Project for a minimum contract period of 10 years. Further due diligence is being undertaken on the economic, technical, legal, environmental and social aspects and the UFK loan application will be subject to final approval by the German Government's Inter Ministerial Committee.

As announced in July 2018, Hastings has exclusively mandated the German bank, KfW IPEX-Bank GmbH ("KfW IPEX Bank") to provide project finance loan advisory services and assist Hastings in relation to securing approval from Euler Hermes Aktiengesellschaft ("Euler Hermes") for the UFK Cover. KfW IPEX-Bank, a wholly owned subsidiary of the KfW Group is a leading German export and project finance specialist with significant experience in the debt financing of mining projects worldwide.

The Yangibana Project involves the development of Rare Earth's deposits rich in neodymium and praseodymium, elements vital to permanent magnets that provide many critical components of wide-ranging high-tech products, including electric vehicles, renewable energy wind turbines, robotics, medical applications and others. The development of this project is expected to bring benefits to the Gascoyne, Carnarvon and Meekatharra regions of northern Australia including through employment and business opportunities. The Yangibana Project aims to be the next significant producer of neodymium and praseodymium outside of China.

[neo26] 30/4/2019 10:13

I think this stock is really cheap, they plenty of cash grow, producing over 600bopd now, they lent out €13m also.Mkt cap low, no cash call will get on with it..

[diesel] 30/4/2019 08:50

Good result, this was never going to be 1000+, but is good enough to justify a rerating, we should be at about 20p, might take another confirmation RNS, but comfortable with my recent purchases here....

[tomboyb] 30/4/2019 08:38

rns out -

looks good -

[diesel] 29/4/2019 09:39

I think CAD's biggest negative is the territory in which it operates almost anywhere else and I think this would reflect a fairer value, as it is it is only valued at about its cash and investment level. They have run a lean business to eke out a profit(just) from a minnow of an O&G business, but that means any increase in production will have a disproportionate effect of the bottom line. Blazh-10, looks very promising....

[spangle93] 28/4/2019 21:53

Great research Brumbrum

I agree - while the Italian exploration moratorium is in place, I don't think any significant value can be ascribed to the assets in that country.


Ref your question - the challenge to suggesting a share price for CAD is that it is permanently undervalued, even against cash + financial assets as you show. It's like an investment trust that has a persistent discount to NAV.

Maybe a question that's equally important is not necessarily how to add more value but how to close this valuation gap?

[brumbrum79] 28/4/2019 21:22

Hi Diesel,

Good observation.

Sorry, I didn't remember the Italian assets: Expoenergy srl, it filed applications for 2 exploration licenses (Corzano and Reno Centese - Natural Gas, un-risked prospective resources =/>60 BCF) in the Po Valley area.

The problems of the Italian Assets are:
- 18-months moratorium (started on january 2019) on the award of new licenses;
- Italian annual acreage fees increased by 25 times than previous regime;

Imho, today the Italian Assets value is very little (near to zero) or better it's like a "call-option" if and when the moratorium is lifted;
Cadogan Petroleum acquired Italian Assets for a deffered cash consideration, contingent upon licences being awarded, and it invested zero $.

...

What value for Cadogan? A good question.
Imho, today's share price (0,12/0,1225 gbp) is not completly fair, it's still a bit undervalued - there's room. I thought it was clear from my previous message.

We could have a better idea about "fair value" after Blazh-10 well flow test(s) results.

Bye Bye

[diesel] 28/4/2019 20:12

brumbrum, did you leave out the Italian licenses? so what value for the company...
I think this could/should be double where we are now, what say you?

[targatarga] 28/4/2019 18:16

Brum Brum- till next time....thankyou

[brumbrum79] 28/4/2019 13:53

Imho, this is the situation:

CADOGAN PETROLEUM

Shares Issued: 235.730.000
Mkt Price: 0,1225 Gbp
Mkt Cap – 26/04/19: 29 Million Gbp/37,50 Million Usd (exchange rate usd/gbp 0,7750)

Cash & Banks: -20,00 Million Usd
(including 7 Million $ used as a pledge for credit line)

Loan/Convertible Bond (rate 5,5% yearly) to Proger Spa
(+ Call Option, if exercised by Cadogan, to acquire an indirect 22% interest in Proger Spa): -15,20 Million Usd

Total Cadogan's Cash & Financial Assets: -35,20 Million Usd

Δ Mkt Cap/Cadogan’s Cash & Financial Assets: +2,30 Million Usd

2,30 Million Usd included:

Monastyretska License:
2P 1,29 MMBoe – 3P 4,39 MMBoe (Reserves update to 31 December 2018 - based on Monastyretska Oil Average Production Rate of 187 Bopd in the 2018 - 68.000/69.000 Bbls/2018), + Contingent Resources; Producing Asset (3 existing Oil Wells – exit Oil production rate: Boepd 215-220);
New Well Blazh-10 with initial positive results;
(Plausible) Conversion of the License from E&P to Production;
Upside potential (Infill Drilling – It can add up to 2.3 MBbl to the cumulative production of a do-nothing scenario (existing 3 producing Oil Wells: Blazh-mon 3, Blazh-1, Blazh-3; do-nothing scenario 2P 1,2 Mbbl), Water injection, Bystrycia formation??));
possible review of the Reserves & Resources if Blazh-10 well was successfull;

Bytlianska License:
2P 0,80 MMBoe – 3P 3,20 MMBoe + Contingent Resources;
No Producing Asset (or better: Vovche-2 Well is in a pilot production scheme); Upside potential; Pursuing Farm-Out for development & appraisal;

Gas Trading:
Profitable BU; Increased competition in the Gas Trading Market but it retains positive gross margin;

Oil Services:
Profitable BU when it provides Oil Services to third parties;
Oil Services to the Group’s Oil&Gas Assets – cost savings;

“Taxes” Assets:
Ukrainian’s VAT Recoverable throught Operating Activities; 1,8 Million Usd – Cadogan Petroleum 2018 Annual Financial Report;

Ukrainian’s Unused Tax losses available; 180,982 Million Usd; §

Others: ??? ???


East Ukraine “Assets”:

Wells drilled in the previous exploration campaign: may be rentable to/for sale;

Cadogan’s seismic/geological informations, well(s) logs data, etc… for Zagoryanska/Pirkovska/Pokrovska areas;

§ Ukrainian’s Unused Tax losses available – 103 Million Usd related to these companies: LLC Astroinvest-Energy/LLC Zagvydobuvannya - Zagoryanskaya Petroleum B.V.; LLC Industrial Company Gazvydobuvannya - Pokrovskaya Petroleum B.V.; (ref.: Cadogan Petroleum 2015-2016-2017-2018 Annual Financial Report);

Cadogan Pirkovskoe BV - LLC AstroInvest-Ukraine (*);
Cadogan Pirkovskoe BV - LLC AstroGas;
Zagoryanskaya Petroleum B.V. - LLC Astroinvest-Energy/LLC Zagvydobuvannya;
Pokrovskaya Petroleum B.V. - LLC Industrial Company Gazvydobuvannya;
...

Last but not least, I can be safely wrong but I think and believe that Blazh-10 well is a part of the infill drilling programme on the Monastyretska license.
Please refer to:
Monastyretska License area structural map in the Cadogan's Presentation Oil Capital Conference 2017;
last rns/well update ('The well has already been connected to the oil tanks in the area of the Blazh Mon 3 (3-BM/BM-3) well and the produced hydrocarbons will be diverted from the test tank into the Blazh-Mon 3 tanks at the end of the clean-up.');

What do you think about this?
...

(*) AstroInvest-Ukraine: Everyone of us knows..
'The Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine has agreed with the Cyprus company Burisma Holdings Limited to purchase more than 50% of the gas supplier "Astroinvest-Ukraine" owned by the British Cadogan Petroleum.
The relevant decision was made at a meeting of the Antimonopoly Committee on April 18 (2019), reports Interfax-Ukraine.' (thanks to: h2owater... information taken from an his previous message);

Bye Bye

[targatarga] 26/4/2019 16:12

Any views on Cadogans next drills. Tia

[nick rubens] 26/4/2019 08:10

I think the market just wants to know how big the well is and what's the flow rate. All this 'potential', 'encouraging' and such only works for a little while.

It could be huge, it could be naff but we don't know. The company is only reporting as they go along. It's not as if they need to ramp for a placing so I do believe they don't know exactly yet themselves and are not talking anything up.

Maybe a week or two away from knowing the fine details? Put us out of our agony. lol

[spangle93] 26/4/2019 05:40

Exactly, madchatter2 - we've had no quantitative indications on what the well might deliver, only qualitative, and the only benchmarks are the existing wells in this formation, which delivers 10s of bbl/day but which are mature.

The pressure obviously isn't high despite the depth; although it's on natural flow, the plan is to put pumps on to regulate flow.

Personally, my thought is that if it's doing 150 on clean up, the top range would be 200-250 bopd and there's a fair chance it could be less than this. It's not like it's been fracked, and normally steady state production rates are lower than test rates, see e.g. BLOE. But it's still a great result for this company. Let's hope it encourages more actual well operations

Honest, I'd like to love this company, but they make it very difficult.

[madchatter2] 25/4/2019 18:18

So what is the upper end of expectations? 350bopd?

[brumbrum79] 25/4/2019 13:07

Babbler, exactly!

Someone else doesn't understand..
the clean-up operations are in progress;
150 Bpd of Oil are natural flow in the clean-up phase;
Further updates.. etc...

[babbler] 25/4/2019 12:49

yup. You seem to get it... others don't.

[babbler] 25/4/2019 12:48

idiot...its the clean up flow.

[bloewillblow1] 25/4/2019 12:37

150 that's well under what was expected bLoe expected 325 but got 1100!!! Buy BLOE

[targatarga] 25/4/2019 11:53

Should move north later imho

[tidy 2] 25/4/2019 11:51

BLOE just reported 1100bopd 26m cap 10m+ profit paNo debt self fundingChoked back to 700bopd as its outperforming on-site facilities Second horizontal well drill ready to repeat and back to back follow ups all funded. Quick reentry sidetrack to make horizontal wells Best results in 50 years Georgia. Doubled production overnight Exxon moving in on area.