Cadbury Schweppes Share Discussion Threads

[kumala] 27/10/2009 14:53

Rosenfeld said the next step is to target growth, and an acquisition of Cadbury would be one way of doing that.

'If this transaction were completed, Kraft Foods would expect to revise our long-term growth targets to 5 plus per cent for revenue and 9-11 per cent for earnings per share, from our previously announced, 4-plus per cent and 7-9 per cent, respectively,' she said.


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This article is from the 15th Sept 09 but thought the numbers would be of interest.
K

[kumala] 27/10/2009 09:03

The battle lines are drawn and the phoney war is almost over. Cadbury expects adversary Kraft to formally launch its £10bn bid for the confectioner at the end of next week.
And when it does, the British maker of Dairy Milk and Flake is preparing to defend itself vigorously.
It has drawn up extensive plans aimed at repelling Kraft's Irene Rosenfeld and is holing up for a protracted bid battle, according to a person familiar with the situation.


It includes a concerted shareholder charm offensive and a set-piece analyst briefing laying out in detail its mandate for independence

That Cadbury boss Todd Stitzer is ready to make such a robust defence scotches the suspicion that he would cede control once a realistic deal was placed on the table.
Kraft is offering 745p a share in a mix of cash and equity. Analysts say Rosenfeld and her team must up the ante to closer to 850p a share and raise the cash element to stand any chance of success.
The Toblerone maker is giving its third-quarter earnings update next Tuesday after which it is likely to turn its attention to a full-blooded bid.
There is no sense the company is ready to walk away from the deal. And in fact it is putting the finishing touches to the financing it needs to acquire Cadbury.
Two sources say Kraft is unlikely to show its hand before Tuesday. It is hoping robust results would drive up the share price and bolster the equity part of any bid.
But it will have to move fast to meet the 'put up or shut up' deadline imposed by the Takeover Panel.
Under City rules Kraft has to table an offer or walk away by November 9.
Observers say Kraft should dispense with the City convention of leaving the bid until the last day so that it does not look like the takeover plan has been stitched together at the last minute.
Kraft has deliberately maintained radio silence throughout the bid process as it wants to make the race for control of Cadbury 'the dullest ever'.
Certainly there have been no fireworks from Hershey or Nestle, mooted suitors for Cadbury. And Kraft will hope this remains the case.
Around 5pc of the share register of Cadbury (down 9.50p to 776.5p) are hedge funds who bought into the stock hoping for a knockout deal.
But it's not just short-term investors who are looking for a knockout bid.
Long-term investor, New York-based Gamco Asset Management, lined up yesterday to lend its support to a Kraft offer.


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[kumala] 26/10/2009 15:09

aT £7.80 The share price is sitting right on my get out stop price, I still think another bid will develop, but as the price drifts confidence slips as well, top up, or get out, what to do, !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
K

[kumala] 26/10/2009 15:05

looks like weve got some slipage.
K

[spob] 23/10/2009 11:31

Peltz adds a twist to battle for Cadbury

By Jonathan Birchall and Julie MacIntosh in New York

FT

Published: October 22 2009 23:33 | Last updated: October 22 2009 23:33

A wild card is set to be thrown into the battle by Kraft to acquire UK confectionery group Cadbury with the expiry on Friday of an agreement by shareholder Nelson Peltz to refrain from publicly criticising the US food group.

Mr Peltz's Trian fund management company – which holds stakes in Kraft and Cadbury – had struck a two-year "standstill" agreement with the US group in November 2007 not to criticise its "corporate strategy, business, corporate activities or management".


EDITOR'S CHOICE
In depth: Cadbury and Kraft - Sep-09Video: Dan McCrum on Hershey's sticky situation - Oct-22Lombard: Only Kraft can give substance to Cadbury's defence - Oct-21Lex: Hershey - Oct-22Nestlé sales growth on track - Oct-22Cadbury accounts for sales volume drop - Oct-21

The deal followed Trian's push behind the scenes for Irene Rosenfeld, Kraft's chief executive, to think about divesting lower margin brands and expanding the group's confectionery and biscuit business.

As part of the agreement, Kraft expanded its board with two additional independent directors supported by Trian: Frank Zarb, a managing director at Hellman & Friedman, the private equity investors, and Lois Juliber, a retired Colgate-Palmolive executive.

Kraft subsequently announced the sale of its Post cereals business to Ralcorp for $2.6bn and bought the LU biscuit business of France's Danone for $7.2bn.

Both Kraft and Trian, which was founded in 2005 by Mr Peltz, Peter May and Ed Garden, declined to comment on the expiry of the agreement.

Trian had not commented on Kraft's takeover approach for Cadbury, but it would fit with the fund management vehicle's support for margin-boosting acquisitions.

The agreement with Kraft also was signed at a time when Trian was stepping up a campaign in the UK for Cadbury to improve its margins or risk becoming a takeover target.

Trian held a 0.65 per cent stake in Kraft at the end of June and had a 1.8 per cent holding in Cadbury as of last month.

Kraft, which outlined a $10bn cash-and-shares potential offer for Cadbury last month, was required by UK regulators to make a formal offer by November 9.

The group has said it can fund its offer without making disposals.

Speculation over potential future sales by Kraft has focused on its Maxwell House coffee, Oscar Mayer meats and cheese businesses.

Kraft reports its third-quarter results on November 3.

[careful] 23/10/2009 09:11

good to see the man who beat off bidders for M&B working his magic for cadbury.
how do these clowns survive.

he defeated the 900p M&B bid, saving all of those great assets and prospects for the shareholders.
he went into a property hedging deal with the guy whos name i cannot spell and lost 500m.

the shares dropped to below 200p at one point.
here we go again.
is he short i wonder?

[smurfy2001] 22/10/2009 12:40

Anyone think this is worth shorting in case the deal falls through?

National Express was a good short :-)

[badtime] 21/10/2009 18:37

Lol..crystal ball gazing ..still plenty of days yet for peeps to stick ther guesses in..cos thst all thy wil b

[talon13] 21/10/2009 15:52

For what these are worth.....today's brokers recs on Cadbury:

Numis keeps an Add rating and 880p price target.

Bernstein says Outperform with a 900p price target.

Panmure Gordon keeps a Buy but raises the price target to 900p from 860p.

[talon13] 21/10/2009 13:48

Well said Topicel! I said in one of my recent posts that Kraft will lose a lot of face and damage their corporate reputation if they just decide to walk away.

I'm glad someone agrees with me.

[topicel] 21/10/2009 13:41

Don't know why everyone ever thought Kraft could walk away after it got somewhat fraught in the early stages.

Rosenfeld has a big reputation to protect and backing down isn't in her nature I suspect. Not so sure about any other bidders, but it was always gonna take £8.25-plus to get anyone's attention here, more like £8.50 as I suggested weeks ago.

Nothing's changed, except today's figures make it even more desirable to swallow it whole!

Topicel

[montyhedge] 21/10/2009 12:31

Kraft to make oa move on the 5th November, they have their update 3rd Nov, but Unilver comes in knock out price 910p.

[talon13] 21/10/2009 12:27

I sincerely hope Monty's crystal ball has been serviced recently and is in full working order. :)

[kumala] 21/10/2009 11:08

F A B montyhedge, that sounds positive, if that does happen a Large bar of chocy will be wizzing its way to you, and beleive me I'm not one to give me chocy away. LOL.
K ;)

[montyhedge] 21/10/2009 11:01

Unilever will come in with a knock out bid at 910p.

[talon13] 21/10/2009 10:38

Rumour has it that montyhedge was last seen counting the profits on his CBRY shorts..............or not!!...... :-)

[talon13] 21/10/2009 10:33

Lloydwo makes a good point re Lazards, but KFT will only do whatever is in the best interests of their own shareholders, not anything to save Lazards reputation as dealmakers, so they won't be 'forced' into doing a deal if they're going to have to pay too big a premium. Today's figs from Cadbury shows they're a more valuable company now that when Kraft first mooted their bid. Question is, are they willing to pay that premium now?

[wad collector] 21/10/2009 09:52

Sorry I forgot , he turned Bullish .Or some similar word.

[kumala] 21/10/2009 09:37

DONT KNOW ! !

[wad collector] 21/10/2009 09:32

Where is Montyhedge?

[kumala] 21/10/2009 09:27

Chief executive Tod Stitzer is under huge pressure to deliver strong organic growth to demonstrate its ability to perform strongly as a stand-alone company.

However, broker Numis believes Toblerone maker Kraft is likely to go with a hostile bid whatever Stitzer has to say.

Industry insiders say Kraft is unlikely to reveal its hand straight away, waiting instead until after it has issued its own trading update on November 3. The US company would have only a few days to make a formal offer before the Takeover Panel's November 9 deadline.

Once Kraft has tabled a bid, both sides expect other contenders to follow suit. Hershey's and Nestle have been mentioned as possible interested parties from the beginning.
Last week, one analyst urged Unilever to throw its hat into the ring. GrahamJones, analyst at stockbroker Panmure Gordon, said: 'A tie-up with Cadbury at 850p looks so attractive that we think Unilever should seriously take a look.'




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[kumala] 21/10/2009 07:40

Thanks for the input lloydwo: good luck if your in buddy.
K