Byotrol Share Discussion Threads

[1gw] 19/12/2019 17:18

Talking about the US and the expected lapsing of the Target arrangement in March 2020, I liked the statement in the finnCap note that:

"Moreover, Byotrol has indicated that an alternative relationship with a better risk/reward profile can be in place by then."

A typical show of confidence, perhaps, but it looks as though things could be lining up very nicely for FY21, with Medimark synergy delivery and the beginning of a new US adventure if they can close out one of the "early-stage discussions".

[1gw] 19/12/2019 13:58

Trying to stay grounded in reality here nobby - hence my comments on medimark and consumer, and also the reminder that they suggested one-off deals last year at this time without apparently delivering any in the second half, as far as I could see.

But I have bought some more today on the basis of the steady progress indicated.

And I was pleased to see them clarify the position on the (lack of) need for cash by stating clearly that existing cash resources are "sufficient to complete growth plans" without any rider around US cash needs. Also interested to note that in the finnCap note it explicitly states the company is in discussions to replace the Target trial "with one in which it is not funding the up-front marketing costs". So pretty unambiguous I would have thought now that the company does not envisage tapping shareholders to fund the immediate US expansion plans.

[nobbygnome] 19/12/2019 09:23

>> 1gw

Talk about rose tinted glasses which I believe you have in another place....

[cumnor] 19/12/2019 09:19

Happy enough with that, esp at this share price and all to play for. Plenty of minor agreements with chemical/sanitising/pet companies which raises the possibility one might like to bid. Can understand target-too big to bother with byotrol which lacks marketing muscle and spend and probably better off with niche providers in US to more specialized outfits where its sprays may be noticed, unlike in target where there are tens of thousands of items.

[1gw] 19/12/2019 08:06

It reads to me as nicely on track, guiding to positive EBITDA for the full year. "...the Directors remain confident in reporting EBITDA positive results for the full year"

It has the merit of being a clean set of figures, with "negligible one-off/technical or licensing deals so far", so things should only get better from here, with 2H weighting to benefit the full-year results and then synergy delivery in FY21.

As last year at this point, they are holding out the potential for one-off deals by the end of the year "The team is also working on a number of business development and monetisation opportunities that should improve results for the full year". It is not clear to me whether the guidance to positive EBITDA is dependent on delivering any of these one-offs. In any event I hope they manage to close at least one deal this time.

Medimark is "running ahead of previous year" but contingent consideration has been reduced a bit which suggests it is not doing quite as well as previously expected. The contingent consideration presentation is complicated by the discounting but I think the effect of the unwind of the discounting with the passage of time is that the underlying decrease in nominal consideration is higher than the discounted decrease presented. With 9 to 1 gearing though between consideration and EBITDA, it should still translate to a very small reduction in expected EBITDA.

US marketing expenditure is being run down so that drain on resources should disappear at the end of this FY, and we wait to see whether they are able to close a decent US partnership to get proper marketing spend behind Byotrol24.

I note consumer revenues are down yoy despite a positive tone to the segment report.

All to play for I think. If they can deliver some good one-off deals and get the synergies sorted out early in FY2021 then it should look pretty good.

[microscope] 19/12/2019 07:36

Not impressed. Another loss, cash dwindling, Target trial to end. Still hunting for a US partner.

[the ghost who walks] 19/12/2019 07:14

Nice figures

[mudbath] 16/12/2019 16:36

BINGO !

Triple bottom now in place.

2p++(for starters)looks to be the next port of call.

BUY.

[the ghost who walks] 16/12/2019 07:13

They did announce the results were audited. They announced that when they lifted the suspension. Not sure what you mean by announcing the accounts were "qualified". What does that term mean?

[sikhthetech] 15/12/2019 18:18

659k sell (delayed publication) on friday @ 1.52p

[sikhthetech] 15/12/2019 13:31

Last year the interims were on 18th December...

The fy 2019 results, expected in Sept, were delayed, resulting in the shares being suspended.
It's unbelievable that such a small company can take more than the legal 6 months from fy end to file their accounts. They even rns'ed TWICE that accounts will be published by period end, 30th Sept, yet still failed to do so...

They announced:
No later than 27th Sept":


Then:
"On 30th Sept":




There's still uncertainty with the fy 2019 accounts.
They still haven't announced that the accounts are now qualified.

[the ghost who walks] 14/12/2019 15:50

When do u think interims will come out?

[sikhthetech] 14/12/2019 14:07

Re Brexit:

They've stated that 10% of their revenue comes from EU... There's uncertainty over any newly imposed tariffs, logistics or supply chain.


Re US:
They are still SEEKING a partner... That's a far cry from their previous assertion that they WERE CLOSE to signing a 2nd retailer... uncertainty...



"Brexit
The Directors estimate that the Group will sell over £0.5m of products into the EU in FYE 31 March 2020. As such the Group is therefore exposed to negative impacts of Brexit, be it on demand as a result of newly-imposed tariffs or on issues with transport logistics or supply chain. The Directors are monitoring the situation closely."

[mudbath] 14/12/2019 09:18

Thank you, to those who were able to make the AGM, for their assessments of Byotrol's current progress and of its future potential.

Hopefully the interim report will indicate a less pedestrian level of achievement;for the share price would benefit from a touch more than the "steady progress" noted in the last set of figures.

[slicethepie] 14/12/2019 07:35

I agree 100% on your views on their approach to the US. They have sales data, a shelf presence and the valuable US EPA approval. They will use this to market the opportunity to consumer goods companies aided by the contacts that their non execs like Sean Gogarty have. The benefit of attending an AGM is you get to ask these questions directly.

[1gw] 13/12/2019 14:57

stt - you could get one easy update by looking in the FY19 annual report rather than the FY18 one:


STT's point on the possibility of a placing to pay for US expansion is an interesting one. I think you could read the comment on financial resources in the 30th September results rns that way "At the year-end we had cash resources...sufficient to finance our ongoing operations and the remaining earnout payments...but not to fund additional resources, capabilities and nationwide marketing expenditure in the US."

However, the comments on seeking a US partner either financial or corporate to invest with byotrol to accelerate growth present a different perspective. This is backed up in the finnCap note "As a result, byotrol is seeking a partner to take this forward...". The whole sense I got from the AGM conversations (but I could be wrong) was that byotrol had decided not to sink too much of its own money (or that which could be raised from shareholders) into the US and was looking for the partner largely to fund that expansion (the suggested $5m in marketing spend to get to $20m in sales). I even got the impression that if they couldn't get a partner to fund enough of the cost they would consider pulling back from the US market for a while, on the basis that the IP would still have value and they could try again subsequently.

Perhaps it is something that could be clarified in the interims along with any update on how negotiations are going. Are there any circumstances under which byotrol would consider raising new equity funding in the near-term in order to pursue US expansion?

I've been buying again today.

[sikhthetech] 13/12/2019 14:55

Thanks Mudbath, that's for MS, which they acquired in Aug 2018. What about other products?



From your link for MS only:

"We are continuously liaising with our Notified Body and Government Departments to understand the situation as it unfolds and are putting measures in place to mitigate risks where possible. Existing product that is already in the market, including stock which has been sold to distributors, will continue to be supported under the original CE mark. We feel it necessary to warn customers, particularly those outside of the UK that there may be a period of time whereby Medimark Limited may not be able to directly supply products under our existing CE mark and there may be a delay in obtaining a new CE mark from which is directly linked to the approval of Lloyds Register in the Netherlands and the administration transfer to them. As such we are advising customers to review their current stock levels and order as appropriate in advance of the 1st November 2019 00:00 deadline."

[mudbath] 13/12/2019 14:24

Fear not Mr S.

[sikhthetech] 13/12/2019 14:19

Given it's now clear Brexit will happen, let's see if they give an update on how Brexit will affect them..



In their 2018 Annual Report, they stated:


"On Brexit we expect the chemical industry to continue to follow EU rules, that we believe are generally appropriate for our industry for which we are already well-positioned. Our greatest concern is that a no-deal exit could create supply
chain issues, especially on incoming raw materials, so we watch political progress with some interest and will take precautionary steps should we need to."

[sikhthetech] 12/12/2019 16:54

Last year, interims were on 18th December....

However, this year's fy were late, resulting in the shares being suspended for a while...


They still haven't said anything about the accounts being qualified...

It's now 8 months since they stated that they are close to signing a 2nd US retailer... They lack funds to expand in US, so possibly a placing soon...


Best wait until the interims as there's too many red flags ...

[mudbath] 12/12/2019 16:23

I will second that 1gw.

Just didn't want to seem too impatient !

[1gw] 12/12/2019 15:34

I'm hoping for rather sooner than "eventually"! Interims to come soon, I think - can they signal something good about full-year expectations? And then what about the progress of the US discussions? I'm hoping to hear something about that in the next month or two, rather than "eventually".

[mudbath] 12/12/2019 15:18

Well done 1gw.

Any BYOT shares bought at under 2p should eventually yield a good profit.

[1gw] 12/12/2019 14:45

I've added a few. Wanted more but could only get 150k and now can't get a quote even for 100k on a "quote and deal" basis. MMs perhaps not wanting to get too out of balance either way ahead of interims?
Edit - and did get some more when they moved the price up.