Bushveld Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[jc2706] 15/9/2020 14:46

Beat me to it Dontay. Well done!

[jc2706] 15/9/2020 14:44

That is the RNS equivalent of an archeological find! It goes back to the original Vametco purchase and I had long forgotten about it. Which is not really a problem as it was settled early as can be seen in the RNS of 23 October 2019:

[dontay] 15/9/2020 14:41

Zwift... Wed, 23rd Oct 2019 11:03RNS Number : 8724QBushveld Minerals Limited23 October 23 October 2019Bushveld Minerals Limited("Bushveld Minerals" or the "Company")Early settlement of the Yellow Dragon earn-outBushveld Minerals Limited (AIM: BMN), the AIM quoted, integrated primary vanadium producer, with ownership of high grade vanadium assets in South Africa, is pleased to announce it has agreed an early settlement of the Yellow Dragon Holdings' earn-out payable under the Bushveld Vametco Limited acquisition agreement.The early settlement is in line with the Company's strategy to simplify its balance sheet and corporate structure while taking into account current market dynamics. This strategy has seen the Company acquire Yellow Dragon Holdings' interest in Bushveld Vametco Limited, acquire all the shares in Strategic Minerals Corporation that it did not already own and redeem the preference shares in Bushveld Vametco Alloys that were held by Strategic Minerals, a wholly owned subsidiary of Bushveld Minerals.As part of the Vametco acquisition terms announced on 30 November 2017, Bushveld Minerals agreed to make further deferred payments to Yellow Dragon as follows:·; Two deferred payments of US$0.6 million each, payable following publication of the accounts for Vametco Holdings Limited for respectively the years ending 31 December 2018 and 31 December 2019; and·; A final payment to be made on publication of the Vametco Holdings Limited accounts for the year ended 31 December 2020 to be calculated by reference to Vametco Holdings Limited's EBITDA for the 2020 financial year. The payment being calculated on the following basis 4.5x EBITDA (as shown in the 2020 Accounts) x 5.91 per cent.

[zwift] 15/9/2020 14:37

Sorry, I've not made it clear it should state, BMN will pay to yellow dragon 4.5 X BMN EBITDA X 5.91 % It does seem like it could be a big pay out

[plat hunter] 15/9/2020 14:28

Depends how much yellow dragons ebitda is, can't say I know to be honest

[zwift] 15/9/2020 13:45

Hi
Im new to this Bb
Could someone more knowledgable help please,
Ive been reading through an old yellow dragon RNS It states that
On 31 December 2020 BMN will pay yellow dragon 4.5 X EBITDA X 5.91%
How much is this likely to be ? could this be something holding the share
Price down as well as the Duferco share issue Due in October
Thanks in advance
Zwift

[maroon bells] 15/9/2020 12:20

It's baffling and annoying

[plat hunter] 15/9/2020 08:39

It's almost as if someone wants to fill those gaps JC :-P

[jc2706] 14/9/2020 15:34

The 500k seller continues apace. A seemingly limitless supply.

[plat hunter] 14/9/2020 08:03

Hopefully jc

[jc2706] 14/9/2020 07:05

Plat Hunter,

There are three things that could move the price significantly (up or down):

Production levels
Vanadium price
VRFB sales

I confess that the one thing I don't expect for this share is that it will be more or less sideways for the next 2-3 years. I expect volatility which should be good for your trades!

[nvhltd] 13/9/2020 21:11

Hi Mo: hope you have had a pleasant weekend?

I’ve had 2 emails this week from the CEO of Enerox. It wasn’t clear if he was saying they are involved with the smaller ESKOM tenders, but he said the first was “massive”; and they weren’t involved. In his view it would be won by the lithium guys with a death spiral on price. While these statements aren’t definitive from BE’s point of view they are definitive from Enerox. That or the CEO is a liar. Something that could well be the case given the bull from our guys.

I’ve also had an email from Chika. She said the conditions of the tender are onerous and that the focus was international rather than South African focused. As a result they are tendering as part of a consortium. I’ve asked if they are prepared to divulge who their VRFB partner will be given Enerox aren’t in a position to take part and UET have switched focus and let us down.

Here are a couple of paragraphs from Chika.

“As you may be aware Lemur is a non-core asset, given is it is non-core, we will provide updates on Lemur when there are material key milestones. As we announced in the 2019 Annual Report, The Company continues to monitor market conditions and engage with South African institutional investors. The Covid-19 pandemic has impacted the timing of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange listing. As a Group, we certainly want to move to a more mature market; however, this has to be at the appropriate time”.

“We have made significant progress with the electrolyte plant:

We received environmental authorisation for construction of the vanadium electrolyte production facility.
We Appointed an Engineering, Procurement and Construction (“EPC”) company, which commenced the vanadium electrolyte plant's engineering phase. The South African Department of Trade Industry and Competition ("DTIC") approved the electrolyte plant project.
Delays of several months are likely for our projects in South Africa due to the nation-wide lockdown, social distancing measures, and travel restrictions to mitigate the virus's spread. This means delays in the construction of the plant. We are also budgeting slightly longer supply chain times in all our projects, including logistics, through H1 2021”.

It’s not enough to have blind optimism like yourself. You need to wake up and smell the coffee. They have shot themselves in the foot so many times and despite all the ‘levers’, presentations, contacts, shared conferences with the President etc etc we are the underdogs.

[plat hunter] 13/9/2020 20:32

If that was aimed at me then I'd be thrilled if you could enlighten us all, as to where the earnings are going to come from then to push this materially higher ober the next 2 years??Standing by for some groundbreaking unheard fundamentals from the resident fundamentalist. Don't hoard it, share it.

[mauricegarin1] 13/9/2020 17:06

The last sentence resulted in your credibility going on par with the resident imbecile 😆😆

[plat hunter] 13/9/2020 16:52

If we look at the candles, there's a gap that need's filling for 17p on the weekly but shorter term there's a gap a 12.5 and 11.5 on the daily chart.


Would be better for the HODL's long term if those gaps were filled prior to the one at 17p getting filled.


Will be more or less sideways for a the next 2-3 years imo.

[clive205] 13/9/2020 10:51

Looking at the daily chart since hitting nearly 50p in late 2018 it's trended downwards looking for support. But having consolidated sideways for the past 5-6 months it looks to me like it's about to break higher.

Higher highs and higher lows will confirm.

All IMHO. DYOR etc.

[nvhltd] 12/9/2020 09:49

From their website:

Dalian Rongke Power Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Rongke Power") was established in Dalian High-tech Zone in 2008. It is jointly established by Dalian Bolong Holding Group Co., Ltd. and Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The company is vertically integrated possessing independent R&D and production capacity of vanadium flow battery industry chain.

Over the years, Rongke Power, has built up an outstanding talent team made great technical breakthroughs and claimed proprietary intellectual property rights on key material, such as electrolyte, ion exchange membrane, bipolar plate, high-performance cell stack. The company has applied for more than 100 patents in China and abroad. The company is the home of the National and Local Joint Engineering Center and National Flow Battery Laboratory approved by the National Development and Reform Commission and National Energy Bureau. Rongke Power has undertaken a number of national 973, 863 projects, which takes the lead in preparing standards for international battery industry.

Through continuous innovation, Rongke Power has achieved the leading position in vanadium flow battery technology. After the successful application of the first generation large-scale products in renewable energy power plant, the company has developed the second generation of containerized portable products in 2013, significantly reducing the cost of the product. Regarding the expansion in international energy storage market, Rongke Power has seized the opportunity and developed an international strategy. In March 2012, Dalian Bolong Holding Group Co., Ltd. and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, jointly established the UniEnergy Technologies LLC (hereinafter referred to as UET) in the United States, aiming at fostering the innovation capability and expanding the US market. At present, UET has made great breakthroughs in product design, system integration and business model demonstration. The company has won the Top Science and Technology Award of US Department of Energy. At the same time, great business opportunities have emerged in Japanese and European market. Rongke Power received orders of key materials of more than 100MW in Japan and Europe. The product quality are highly recognized by BOSCH Group in 2014 for high product quality. Vanadium flow battery energy storage systems have also been delivered to the wind farms in the north of Germany.

Rongke Power, based on its advanced technology, keen marketing awareness, and forward-looking judgment on the energy storage industry, started the construction of the large-scale manufacturing base in 2014. The layout is divided into three parts: A. Build R&D center in Dalian High-Tech Zone, where the headquarter of Rongke Power Group is located; B. Construct the new equipment manufacturing base in Dalian Puwan New District with the capacity of 300MW/year in Phase I; C. Upgrade the key material manufacturing base in Zhuanghe Huayuankou Economic Zone; D. Based on the existing cases, establish a complete set of solutions for large-scale energy storage application. Rongke Power knows very well that the industry development finally depends on the market. The company has started to set up standards for domestic and international energy storage industry, and meanwhile actively to explore the global market.

At present, Rongke Power is in a critical period of development. The company will focus on two main tasks: accelerating the construction of manufacturing base and expanding the market. By fully leveraging its technological advantage, it strives to size the opportunity in the third industrial revolution represented by the renewable energy.

[nvhltd] 12/9/2020 09:48

The more I look the more convinced I am that only Rongke Power have the manufacturing base and critical mass to supply into the ESKOM BESS in such a short time scale. That and given the connection to UET and they are supplying the replacement test VRFB at ESKOM surely means they must be our VRFB partner for at least the larger tenders.

[nvhltd] 12/9/2020 09:31

The only other and is mentioned in the Q2 update when they dropped the bombshell that UET had changed strategy is Rongke Power. They have a 500Kw, 2000Kwh VRFB. And of course they are Chinese.

[nvhltd] 12/9/2020 00:24

So if UET don’t have a product suitable for the ESKOM BESS and Enerox are unable to scale up production that only leaves Invinity or Schmid as far as I am concerned. Even Schmid are a very long shot given that their giga factory doesn’t start until next year.

Who else is there?

[nvhltd] 12/9/2020 00:09

Meanreverter: What I mean by him controlling things is he is the CEO. He might not be able to control external factors like the Vanadium price and certainly not alone. If Vanadium producers got together and acted as a cartel like OPEC that would be different.

No, what I mean is he knows what’s going on within the business. He’s promised so much and delivered very little by way of value add at the moment. Sure he has added more processing capacity, but we should be producing 5,000 mtv right now just at Vametco. The demand just isn’t there yet which is why the ramp up to 8,400 mtv, Mokopane and Brits are years away. The VRFB companies we have taken a position in were effectively bust and hardly sell anything. Invinity only have enough money to survive until the first or second quarter of next year if they don’t convert sales leads.Production increases didn’t work or delayed. The JSE listing has been kicked down the road.

I think the reality is he was over optimistic about Vanadium demand and VRFB uptake. Everything else flows from that.

He has been talking about II for years. There was a time when he publicly told investors with large shareholding to call him if they wanted to sell because he had willing investors. No institutional investors came onboard. As he said in a video the other day they only want in via a placing. That way they can get a discount and make a quick killing. However, because of delays elsewhere he hasn’t been able to give them their entry point via a duel listing. Quite simply I believe he has been instrumental in the share price collapsed (along with the Vanadium price) to allow SA investors in at a discounted price, but events have delayed implementation. Covid, ESkom and weak demand for Vanadium have scuppered his plans. He said he knew what was going on and was going to do something about it. That was 6 months ago and still we languish at these low prices.

Talk is cheap. CEO’s are expected to talk up and sell their company. Fortune was and is no different, however, he is running out of ‘projects̵7; that can drive the share price higher. He can’t control the Vanadium price and he can’t force the sale of VRFB’s, but I am going to hold him to his last promise to deliver 1,000Mwh of VRFB’s by the end of 2020 even though I know he is going to fail. He will fail and all talk of this target will disappear without trace just like all the other failures.

I hope and pray he can deliver on the ESKOM BESS, but their lack of detail and clarity around BE after 5 years is concerning.

More concerning are their partners in the VRFB space. All (UET, Enerox and Invinity) are pretty much bankrupt, tiny R & D companies with very little in the way of sales, revenue, project management experience or large scale manufacturing capabilities.

The largest of the 3, Enerox, have confirmed to me that they are not going to tender for the first package of the ESKOM contract. They believe it will be won by a lithium battery company and it will be a race to the bottom on price.

So for BMN / BE if they don’t win a significant portion of this contract it will be long hard slog.

[nvhltd] 11/9/2020 23:33

Clarification: There appears to be a mistake in the Environmental Impact report posted on the LSE the other day which has led me to make a mistake in the number of VRFB containers needed to supply the 80MW first package of the tender and therefore subsequent packages.

The impact report stated that 10 shipping container sized VRFB’s were required for the 1MW Vametco Minigrid.

Enerox have confirmed to me that only 2 of their larger FB 500 - 2000 VRFB containers are required for this project. They do not understand why 10 have been stated.

As a result of this confirmation they say only 160 X FB 500 - 2000 VRFB containers would be required for the first package (80MW).

The bad news is they have confirmed that they will not be taking part in the first package and expect a fight between lithium vendors with a death spiral on price.

Sorry for taking the figures in the report at face value. It just goes to show you can’t believe anything you read 😜. Get ready for the share price to react when the first tender is announced.