Bushveld Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[psbhoy] 03/1/2019 09:06

Plat, if being a "wally" means sitting with an investment that is now worth around £700,000 having bought in at around £45,000, then I'll happily continue being a "wally".

The fundamentals are solid and the latest broker targets are actually based on lower than previous V prices so I'd suggest that you continue being a "Fool" and make pennies while the rest of us "wallies" make life changing investments.

Dividend news next...bring it on.

[zeusfurla] 03/1/2019 08:59

JC2706 Thanks for adding the kiln maintenance and grade control to my comments on strike downtime - posting too late at night leads to memory loss on my part! On shorts, it's worth knowing that on my IG spreadbet account every PI is long. There are no shorts in place. That is an objective reflecton of what PI's are doing with their cash. There may be a few who short elsewhere but they are in minority and stand to lose big-time if and when news is released.

[vauch] 03/1/2019 08:59

The V flow battery's has my interest long term, Leasing them and after the 20 year life cycle the v can still be extracted and sold for rebar use

With leasing making it financially favourable to the end user it will be a win win for BMN

[vauch] 03/1/2019 08:39

If the rebar in China being used now is found to have not sufficient v in it would it be a case of melting it and adding the extra of will it have to go on a major recycling to fix the problem.
Also we have seen in many industry's back handers to get thing signed off but it will only take one incident flouting the new regulations to destroy their business and I think these days it will be far to risky.

Looking forward to April

[jc2706] 03/1/2019 08:28

I doubt that there is much of a short in play on BMN. The market makers may well have sold more shares than bought over an extended period but the evidence is reasonably convincing that this is on the back of a significant seller. This is not a short per se, just an exercise in shifting significant volumes of shares.

Just to correct a statement earlier indicating that the strike was the only issue affecting production, this was not the case. There was also maintenance on the kiln and a grade control issue. The kiln Wasa one off and there is some indication that the grade issue is being rectified but the Q4 results should show us how successful this has been so far.

I do find these discussions quite interesting as in fact both sides have valid arguments. Vanadium has without doubt fallen sharply in the last month or so but this was on the back of a (too) precipitous rise. The real argument is what happens now and perhaps the one thing that hasn't been discussed in any detail is the supply situation. Over the last few years this has been hit by plant closures but the real thing that is preventing the re-emergence of historical sources of supply is environmental regulation in China. This has meant that stone coal has not been able to 'step into the breach' and has also resulted in steel production being based on low Vanadiferous iron ore. Neither of these sources will reduce the deficit. Significant new sources are at least 2-3 years away and, in Australia at least,come with a high price tag judging by the latest PFSs.

Which leads back to demand. Experts in the field suggest that this would rise significantly without the new rebar standards in China but the policing of them inevitably adds to the demand (the real question being to what extent the new rules are being ignored/policed). Should prices fall or leasing prove sufficient to offset the buy price then VRFB demand may well act as a support for prices in the future.

The real issue here is that, whilst the potential for Vanadium demand is large and the likely increase in supply delayed, the volumes remain small and the pricing remains relatively opaque and reliant on an archaic process. As such it is subject to wild swings and it will take some time before we understand how long the current weakness will continue. My best guess is that any price recovery will not be significant until the Chinese New Year when the steel mills are expected to be back at full throttle with a new regime in place (developed with the assistance of Vanitec as I understand) to monitor adherence with the rebar standards.

[plat hunter] 03/1/2019 08:22

Keep up Vauch... I've already stated this is going to 30p before 60p.Daily shorts with stops get set up here each morning.

[vauch] 03/1/2019 08:13

Lol, the times that I have read posts like that over the past 30 years.

You think it doomed so go with you gut feeling and short.

Ill go with mine and keep adding.

We can have a comparison in April to see who has the better understanding of the v market.

[plat hunter] 03/1/2019 08:07

Vauch.. everthing travelling east has a festive retrace but not to the tune of 40%.Like most bubbles the V craze has been overdone. If you're long then good luck lol

[vauch] 03/1/2019 08:03

plat.
you need to follow trends over the festive period v has a pull back but its only a short stop and will now start to move up again.
If ya short bad luck.

[plat hunter] 03/1/2019 07:51

Don't be a wally all your life psboy.. Steel is not in high demand at all and V's price is coming off as fast as it spiked.Very basic and verifiable facts that make your replies like that sound a little silly at best.Whats the margin here with V back down to $12 -15

[vauch] 03/1/2019 07:27

The longer the share price stays low the more the private investors buy, this causing shorters a bigger issue as shares become less available.
And this co has a very strong group accumulating with many holding in excess of a million and still adding.

The share price hear has a long way to go on the up side into the £s over the next few years.

[psbhoy] 03/1/2019 05:08

Absolute nonsense Plat. Vanadium is in short supply and will continue to be so while steel is in such high demand and especially since the regulations in Chinese steel making have required an increase in the amount of Vanadium required. In addition, the much discussed and clear involvement of VRFBs in the future of energy storage makes the need and desire for Vanadium at an all time high. NO BUBBLE. Reality.....a very much sought after resource that very few miners throughout the world can supply. BMN is one such supplier.

[zeusfurla] 02/1/2019 23:23

Dogrunner11 2 shutdowns earlier this year as a legacy issue from previous owners caused the reduction in production. No other reason. This was resolved a couple of months ago. You are being somewhat selective with the facts and could mislead potential investors. Vanadium prices remain well above where they were a year ago despite recent price falls with most industry experts projecting vanadium prices to rise again after the Chinese New Year when steel production ramps up again.

Bushveld has no debt and is likely to clear in excess of £100m in profit per year from vanadium mining when results come out for the last 12 months in a few months time. That is based on a market cap under £500m giving a PE of under 5x! The figures speak for themselves.

If you look at the share price Angel report recently released, they have set a target price of 87p a share just a few weeks ago, giving a market cap in excess of £900m. They are known for their conservative forecasts.

I highly recommend anyone seriously thinking of investing in BMN to take their time and do the research properly. In my view there is no better resource than The Bushveld Perspective to source your information.

[dogrunner11] 02/1/2019 20:49

Dontay

Production is falling, costs are rising those are the facts, it’s in the operational updates for last two quarters.

Capacity is running at 3750 mtV however they are forecasting 650 mtV for Q4, that’s 2600 mtV equivalent basis.

If they are expanding to 5,000 mtV sooner the. Planning surely they need address issues surrounding why production is falling first, look at last Q3 production, just over 500 mtV. Sales are higher sure, production isn’t.

Production costs are rising and do you know what these costs are forecast to be based on 5,000 mtV per annum? Going on Vanadium price falls in China it will not be long for sub $10 V price, looking at long term graph and those Chinese producers protecting their market share I can see prices falling back to usual levels, that’s going to be a huge problem.

Inflation in Africa is running high, workers want a higher quality of life, that means wage rises in excess of inflation, given the huge profits for last year Bushveld will really struggle get away with anything lower then say 7/8% wage increase imo.

All adds to costs, plus whatever depreciation on mining equipment I don’t expect profits based on normal V prices to be anywhere near those forecast.

It’s not a bad stock, it’s just not a half billion pound one for sure, imo.

[bmnsa] 02/1/2019 14:30

Sold a small portion at 48p before Christmas and bought them back at 39p the other day. Gave me a nice 2 grand to spend on some more gold coins.
Would only sell/trade spare BMN making sure the bulk were still in mind you.
What with the gold price rise together with this rise has made me a happy bunny this new year.

[dmitribollokov] 02/1/2019 14:29

This is such a whippy stock!

[coldspring] 02/1/2019 08:07

Tough to buy this morning, already paying well over.

[plat hunter] 01/1/2019 23:05

You are right zues, my mistake it was 600 million last week, good spot.

[zeusfurla] 01/1/2019 22:00

Plat If you are being employed to talk down this share you may at least use facts and more convincing arguments.

Your words - 'This is already worth 600 million on the market'. NO it's not. It's worth £415m as at 31 Dec close. I didn't suggest it is worth £3bn in my earlier post. However, the latest broker report from share price Angel (a conservative broker) values the company at 87p/share ie £930m. These are not my figures, they are those of an accredited broker. I respect the opinions of others where they have some basis in evidence. Provide some evidence in your next post to persuade rational watchers of this BB of your opinion please. Wishing you all the best.

[dontay] 01/1/2019 16:25

https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2019/01/01/solar-tsunami/Solar tsunamiDevelopers have applied to build 139 GWac of large-scale solar projects in the territory of six grid operators – around five times what is currently online across the country – and that figure doesn't even cover the entire United States. By any metric, we are looking at an unprecedented boom in solar development over the next five years....Energy storage boomThe six grid operator queues we investigated also showed more than 16 GW of battery projects which have filed for interconnection. And this number should not be too surprising to anyone who is watching the meteoric growth of energy storage.Per the US Energy Storage Monitor, from Wood Mackenzie Renewables & Power along with the Energy Storage Association (ESA), total energy storage deployed expanded by 60% in terms of energy and 300% on a power basis in the third quarter of 2018 versus the prior year. Going out mostly until 2023, the report noted that the front of the meter pipeline expanded to approximately 33 GW of power.The next five years are going to be truly massive for solar and energy storage. Hold on to your seats.

[psbhoy] 01/1/2019 12:37

For anyone looking to get a summary of BMN and its recent history....hxxps://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-articles-1/post/mandela-to-mojapelo-a-vision-to-change-africa-for-good-384

Superb reading constructed through verifiable facts and not any speculation

[dontay] 01/1/2019 09:51

"As part of the operational improvement initiative, designed to enhance Vametco's productivity, the Company is reviewing the timing and required investment to expand production capacity to 5,000 mtV."Yep, spot on! Phase 3 wasn't planned to start until 2019.But... err, it's not on hold...as a result of the above mentioned review which was "part of the operational initiative, it was brought forward. It's already started!Extract from November 9th Q3 operational update:"While higher vanadium prices partially mitigated the impact of the production shortfall, with the Company expected to generate healthy cash flows, Bushveld intends to use this opportunity to sustainably maximise production volumes and drive operating costs down. Accordingly, we are pleased to have commenced with Phase 3 of our expansion plan, which will increase capacity at Vametco to 5,000 mtV per annum. Phase 3 will also benefit from advancement of the Brits Vanadium Project, which has yielded encouraging drilling results.

[plat hunter] 01/1/2019 09:43

Interesting..Why do you think that this company is worth 3 billion then?

[bmnsa] 01/1/2019 09:42

In the short to medium term.