Bt Share Discussion Threads

[eaaxs06] 02/11/2018 15:31

It's nice when things go to plan, yogaboy, especially when they work out as well as yesterday. I hope you dealt and made some money.

I've actually been making better decisions since I filtered monty, I'm not sure if that's a co-incidence or not?

Good luck everyone, Sid.

[yogaboy] 02/11/2018 14:59

Where did you get that crystal ball eaaxs06? :)

[mbmiah] 02/11/2018 13:42

Could finish blue

[eaaxs06] 02/11/2018 12:47

Come on BT, let's have another trip into the 260's.

[pacemaker1000] 02/11/2018 12:35

Roads are publicly owned unlike telecommunications. Gov sticking to their misguided belief that competition drives investment and expected by now Sky, Talktalk etc would have it covered. Trouble is it doesn’t work as the return on investments takes years to recoup and vast sums of money which is why we are where we are now.
Left alone BT would have invested and the whole country would be better off...this is a fact I’m afraid no government or quango (ofcom) will admit!
The money to invest has been sucked out of BT by the leeches and we are now at a stalemate.

[vas007] 02/11/2018 10:11

Gov investing in roads and railways helping the future of British economy well is not telecom just as important after all everyone now want as faster and reliable broadband.

[thehearse] 02/11/2018 10:00

Cost reductions, I can now see how and how obvious it is.

The problem is that OpenReach has team of Fibre engineers and another team of Copper engineers. Each teams consists of planners, surveyors and installers etc. In my case, an ongoing request for a new Broadband 20mb service to a new house has resulted in the Copper team being sent out to perform the survey to configure the path for the copper line, even though I didn't request a copper line as it won't support a 20mb service. However, the copper team will report back stating that Fibre is in the area meanwhile the copper line is installed to the property and I have a 8mb service.

I then cancel my order because they couldn't meet my spec so they then send out the Fibre team knowing that Fibre is in the area. The Fibre team then run another cable to my property and I finally get the 30-50mb service that I originally requested. You work out the cost of this to BT and us the shareholders, remembering they do 000s of installations a day. Room for improvement I sense as it's a potential technology gold mine if they get it right.

[toon1966] 02/11/2018 09:57

Could you clarify what you mean by 'changes' and just to let you know when you say Government what you really mean is the 'tax-payer'.

[vas007] 02/11/2018 09:38

Gov must fund changes

[dac123] 01/11/2018 19:44

First post on BT, over the years I have made a few bad/very bad decisions but this year has been quiet good so far, especially after today. In May I sold Easyjet at £17.59 now down at £12.38, that could have been nasty. Then in august I sold IAG at £6.72 now at £6.18, not as bad as Easyjet but not great. Both were tipped to go up but I was looking at BT partly for the dividend and partly as a recovery play. So on the 7th of August I bought a “shed load” of these at £2.38 and so far I could not be happier. I got a very healthy dividend payment (it was a big shed) and as we sit the price is up just short of 10%, I hope with more to come. Good luck to all.
This BB is reasonable sensible compared to some, with some thoughtful posts, keep up the good work.

[careful] 01/11/2018 19:36

The attraction of BT is that there is so much opportunity for improvement.
A forward PE of under 10 and a yield of 6% before improvements in efficiency.

I have no thoughts of selling.
Terminated is right when he says markets are unstable.
But they are unstable in both directions.
Today is a good start.
We have a top management team in place.

[terminated] 01/11/2018 19:19

I sold up making a modest 3k, it all looks promising but these markets are very unstable. An upgrade may well come but many companies are trading 20%-30% under broker estimates. I'm sure they'll come good but I decided to sell a few of my holdings and sit and watch for a while.

[poikka] 01/11/2018 17:35

Here's HL's take on it.

"Outgoing CEO Gavin Patterson describes the group as 'too complex and overweight'. This explains why cost-cutting is a major theme. The group's targeting £1.5bn of annual cost savings.

BT will hopefully emerge as a leaner, more joined up business. Its focus will be twofold. Running the consumer-facing operation we all recognise as BT, and operating the infrastructure behind the increasingly digital and communication-led economy.

BT is starting to bundle TV, internet and mobile contracts together successfully, so the first part of the plan is coming together nicely. It's the second part where we've seen a few false starts.

There's constant pressure to roll out more high speed internet connections and drive prices down. That's great for the consumer, but regulatory moves to reduce prices mean potentially lower returns for investors.

The business-to-business divisions are also struggling, with public sector revenues falling away. All the while the group's pension scheme remains a major drag on cash flows.

Revenues and profits are both likely to trend down in the short-term, while capital spending will remain stubbornly high - around £3.7bn a year for the foreseeable future.

BT can legitimately point to external factors for much of the above. However, other problems are clearly of its own making. Misdemeanours at Openreach (essentially BT unfairly delaying Ethernet installations) have led to fines and compensation payments, while improper accounting in Italy made a few dents too.

This all means hopes for 10%+ annual dividend growth have been reined in. Investors probably won't get any increases for at least two more years. But seeing as the recent share price weakness has pushed the prospective yield over 6%, BT doesn't need to offer much dividend growth. The weaker share price also means BT trades on 9.4 times expected earnings, well below its recent average. That opens the door to recovery potential.

Recent updates have been more encouraging, and that cost-cutting plan is significant. There's a couple of reasons for longer-term optimism too. Openreach should remain profitable despite government meddling and the consumer business is an attractive, cash generative asset.

Still, it remains early days in the BT turnaround and there are of course no guarantees. We'll be interested to see what Philip Jansen's plans are when he takes over in the new year."

[eaaxs06] 01/11/2018 17:01

I’d expect to see a few brokers updating their advice in the next day or two, taking account the latest figures today, and hopefully raising the target price.

Possibly one or two of them will upgrade their guidance position, and then the share price should continue to benefit.

Come on Deutsche Bank, UBS, Credit Suisse, Jeffries, etc, you know it makes sense.

Good luck everyone.

[smurfy2001] 01/11/2018 16:43

Enjoy the dividend on the way up.

[porsche1945] 01/11/2018 16:31

Just desperate for this pile of sxxt to get back to what I paid for them, still about 15k down on them, get back to 3.50 and dump and will ever go near this over regulated over staffed over pensioned political football of a company again, someone like Terry Smith wouldnt go near cxxp like this or about 95 pc of the ftse and I shouldnt have either.

[smurfy2001] 01/11/2018 16:26

Nothing wrong with spreading your wings if executed well TV is a big thing (look at Netflix) but the rest of the business needs a good kicking just look at the feedback scores on Trustpilot.

[pacemaker1000] 01/11/2018 16:02

Still believe Gavs downfall was football!

[smurfy2001] 01/11/2018 13:05

So, BT.
11:23 am
BE
Up nearly 11% now.
BT Group (BT.A:LSE): Last: 265.05, up 24.5 (+10.18%), High: 265.15, Low: 249.55, Volume: 39.26m
BE
On very little.
11:24 am
BE
FY ebitda guidance has been nudged higher, towards the top of the previously given range.
BE
And Q3 beats, but it's difficult to pick out exactly why.
BE
Timing of Openreach cashflow seems to be a big part of it.
11:25 am
BE
The good news is that, for the second quarter in a row, it's not a profit warning.
BE
So. Reestablishing credibility before the new guy comes in and kitchen sinks it. But there's nothing really on strategy or whatever, so I'm a bit lost as to why it's worth 11% more than yesterday.
BE
Let me find a buyer. Here's JP Morgan, turning positive.
11:27 am
BE
Following a multi-year downgrade cycle that saw BT’s shares fall 60% from 500p (late 2015) to a low of 200p earlier this year, today’s Q2 results offer clear signs that the group is now firmly on an inflection path back to revenue stabilisation. This, twinned with ambitious cost cutting plans, a slowly reducing pension deficit, and normalizing capex, should support EFCF expansion from £2.4bn (Mar-19E) to £2.8bn (Mar-22E). This implies a handsome ~12% mid-term yield that would comfortably cover the current £1.5bn pa dividend. We believe this financial recovery can support a material re-rating, and as such take the opportunity to upgrade from N to OW.
BE
And Jefferies.
BE
Results ahead of expectations with hoped-for positive trends in BPS and Consumer delivered. FY EBITDA guidance raise should allay fears of new CEO 'kitchen sinking' estimates when he starts on 1 Feb.
11:29 am
BE
Does it? Really, tho?
BE
Barclays also, since I have it open.
BE
BT 2Q EBITDA £1.87bn is +6%/£100m vs company consensus and our estimate. Of this, c50% is one-off in nature (pull forward of handset revenues in consumer, GS FX and some Openreach), but even still, Openreach/Global services showed impressive profitability trends. The guidance range has been tightened to upper range of £7.3-7.4bn as a result. On KPIs, Fixed consumer service revenues remain negative (-0.8%), with Mobile very solid (+3.8%), although Fixed churn did pick up in the quarter as a result of heightened competition. Openreach discounts only impacted 1 month of the quarter, and so will be greater in 3Q, with Consumer price increases set to offset. Elsewhere the pension deficit actually rose £700m to £5.3bn (gross of tax) due to equity market movements, and FCF was slightly below albeit working capital-related (ie temporary). On balance the EBITDA beat should be taken positively, with few obvious operational concerns.

[eaaxs06] 01/11/2018 12:31

Without the Italian fiasco, he could well have done, smurfy.

[smurfy2001] 01/11/2018 11:24

If the current CEO had only done this sooner....

[poikka] 01/11/2018 11:00

Here's the facts re the divi. The 'cut' to the Interim was announced last year.

"The Board continues to expect to hold the full-year dividend unchanged at 15.4 pence per share for this financial year and next, given our current performance and outlook for earnings and cash flow over this period.

The Board remains committed to our dividend policy, which is to maintain or grow the dividend each year whilst reflecting a number of factors including underlying medium term earnings expectations and levels of business reinvestment.

The interim dividend will be paid on 4 February 2019 to shareholders on the register on 28 December 2018. The ex-dividend date is 27 December 2018. The election date for participation in BT’s Dividend Investment Plan in respect of this dividend is 28 December 2018. The final dividend for the year to 31 March 2018 of 10.55p, amounting to £1,045m, was approved at the Annual General Meeting on 11 July 2018 and paid on 3 September 2018."


They expect that the gender pension issue will cost them in the "hundreds of millions". The pension deficit actually grew, although offset by the £2bn contribution. They must be hoping for good cashflow for the full year, and possibly better PF returns.

[lurker] 01/11/2018 10:35

PS...yes I am taking some profits today, but only on spread bets and my trading account.

My SIPP and ISAs happily continue to hold lots of BT inlcuding all the investment shares bought between 225 down to 202p which was my lowest entry point...nice divis for years to come...BT is not going to disappear or go bust...just like my shares in VOD, AT&T, CSCO, INTC, MSFT, AAPL (another old Montyplonker short idea from a few years ago)

[thefartingcommie] 01/11/2018 10:17

Date Broker New target Recomm.
1 Nov JP Morgan... 290.00 Neutral