Broker Network Share Discussion Threads

[liarspoker] 23/3/2007 11:19

They did 8.1p fully diluted in H1 will they really do 24.87p in 07 ?

I don't think so. Have a look at the following:

Int 31 Oct 04 - 3.41p - up 81%

FY 30 Apr 05 - 6.75p - up 40% ( up from Interim EPS 97.9% )

Int 31 Oct 05 - 4.66p - up 35%

FY 30 Apr 06 - 10.27p - up 52% ( up from Interim EPS 120% )

Int 31 Oct 06 - 8.10p - up 74%

So the EPS basically doubles for H2 from H1 figures. Given that we did 8.10p in H1 and they are ahead we can add on say 120% as in last year when they were trading ahead as well.

Therefore if we put EPS down for 17.82p for 2007 that means we are trading on an historical P/E of 18 at the current price and a PEG of .25

Now if we factor in 45% EPS growth for 2008 which is about 1/2 way between the 40% and the 52% figure above we get EPS of 25.84 which equates to a multiple of 12.5 prospective and a PEG of .27

Towry is trading ahead of expectations but by how much ? It will impact H2 but in only impacted H1 in a small way as it was acquired in July. What we do know is that is will affect all of 2008 so the 25.84p figure may increase by some way.

A slight worry as well is Debtors. I haven't done any ratios yet so I haven't looked at Debtor Days yr on yr but if DD are increasing then perhaps debtors should be factored.

I also like the Net Cash Inflow from Operating Activities figure of Stg 1.68m remember that cash was spend on acquisitions.

All in all I believe that a P/E of at least 15 is worthy here given the growth rates described above. So if they do say 27p for 2008 then we are looking at a share price of 405p if not more in a years time and that is not including the divi gains.

[liarspoker] 23/3/2007 08:47

I'd like to see the new brokers target - does anyone have it ?

[spangle93] 22/3/2007 20:47

UK Analyst stockmarket report contained

Broker Network Holdings (BNH) shares added 28.5p to 319.5p on the back of a solid trading statement. The group, which runs a network based organisation for independent community insurance brokers, said that full year results were likely to exceed current expectations. The news came as it appointed Cenkos as its broker.

Similar text made it to the ADVFN evening market review
Good gains were registered in Broker Network Holdings, 28-1/2 higher at
319-1/2, as the network organisation for independent community insurance brokers
said full-year results are expected to exceed current market expectations.
At the same time, it has appointed Cenkos Securities as nominated adviser
and broker to the company.

[spangle93] 22/3/2007 15:17

Dan_Dare, thanks so much for taking the time

[dan_dare] 22/3/2007 14:42

Spangles 93

For investment purposes I use longer term charts - either 1, 3 or 5 year with RSI and MACD indicators. There are so many indicators that one can use that it becomes too complex and thus I prefer it more simple. The indicators are the method I use for entry and exit points, and it works for my strategy both in investing and day trading.

What I have found is that day trading has made me much sharper and more accurate to reading the entry and exit points and that this has enhanced my investing skills. This of course does not mean that I do no fundamental analysis!

Day trading I use 1 minute or 5 minute log charts with the same indicators.

All the charts I do are alogorithmic charts not arithmetic because of the length of time and the compression of higher price levels. Short term charts or intraday have no real advantage being logorithmic as the time and price movements are small. This is where the difference you mentioned is I believe. The support line should always be across the lowest prices in the timespan you choose.

Below shows the difference between the two charts on the 2 year BNH chart.

One can place two or three resistance lines in, which sometimes helps to show when a share is overbought or the degree into overbought territory.



Log Chart

free stock charts from www.advfn.com


Arithmetic Chart

free stock charts from www.advfn.com

I presume you are looking at the black channel formed this year . The long term channel (blue) gave an indication of where it was becoming overbought (red circle). In my experience all shares that break out inevitably fall back into the long term trend channel. It would now have to consistently hold this black channel at this angle which is going to be very difficult. All IMHO

[liarspoker] 22/3/2007 14:05

Yes, but guess what I sold Spangle93. ;o)

[spangle93] 22/3/2007 13:58

Good to see you back here, LS.

[liarspoker] 22/3/2007 12:41

Agreed - looking good. A bit late but as of this morning I am back in agian. Even though I lost a few % here in selling and buying back in my 'in between trade' went very well ( see RCG ). :O)

[cockneyrebel] 22/3/2007 12:22

and still below the recent high pre trading statement.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 22/3/2007 12:21

At the worst that 28.25p for the year just starting must get upgraded to 30p imo, if they are ahead for this year.

That means 120%+ odd eps growth this year, 25%+ growth for the current year and a PE of 10.5.

That has to be cheap surely, a PEG of 0.4 maximum.

CR

[qs9] 22/3/2007 10:55

looking forward to the upgrades following todays announcement.....

[spangle93] 22/3/2007 09:55

Dan_Dare: hope you don't mind a question from a novice but... how do you pick the positioning and slope of your lines?

I haven't drawn this, but it looks like if you disregarded the one day at sub-200 in December, then the line would touch the bases in late December and March, showing we've just come off support. the upper line parallel to this support would then be close to coinciding with the late Jan peak?

No criticism intended, just that to me charting seems to depend so much on where you draw the lines, and I've never cracked what is critical in this respect, so hopefully I can learn a bit.

[dan_dare] 22/3/2007 09:19

Looks like we are on the way to retest the old high around 330. MACD turning positive and following RSI. We may get a slight fall to 50 on the RSI before upward progression in the RSI to 70, but not sub 305 in the share price in my view. All things being equal in the market as it seems all the problems have magically disappeared but of course remember they are all still there.


free stock charts from www.advfn.com

[geovest] 22/3/2007 08:43

But Hectorp you've sold this only 2 days ago (1175) ;/)
Never too late to get in, still a long way to go with very little downside risk!

[hectorp] 22/3/2007 08:25

I'd like to add in this strong markup, but too late to get in.

[broadwood] 22/3/2007 08:14

Looks like this news should see us moving forward
strongly over the next few weeks.

Change of adviser ? - who knows ? could be for several reasons - but must admit, they're not well known.

[spangle93] 22/3/2007 08:10

Just a few days too early - I was planning to take out a December spreadbet on this on Monday, curses. :-)

[hideandseek] 22/3/2007 08:07

Up 18 points already this morning. Not a bad start!!

H&S

[cockneyrebel] 22/3/2007 08:02

Ahead, and still well off it's recent high after today's mark up - fwd PE looks very low still imo

CR

[hectorp] 22/3/2007 07:54

My take on that, is there is an increased chance a new fund raising is being considered. !
As to todays news, someone has bought in at 307p pre-open. It may be hard to buy shares at close to yeserdays price.

[spangle93] 22/3/2007 07:41

What do you make of the change of advisor? Will that have any effect at our level, for instance, more/less communication? What experience to others have with Cenkos?