British Energy Share Discussion Threads

[hightech] 02/2/2007 10:17

How many times have they been right?

[h4rsh2] 02/2/2007 09:55

"Finally, British Energy eased 8-1/4 to 429 as ING cut its target to 345 pence from 465 on the deteriorating outlook for electricity production and rising costs. "

[h4rsh2] 01/2/2007 11:18

I can see this falling under £4.00..

[hightech] 01/2/2007 11:01

Electricity consumption should increase substantially this year.
I wonder why DB reduced it's holding though!

[bpoole] 31/1/2007 14:40

I am waiting for the chart to bottom, maybe 400p but, more than likely 410p.

[hightech] 31/1/2007 09:51

Oil above $56 (5% recovery in one day) should justify much higher price for BGY. Probably, like Corus and Rover, we are moving to sell the assets to Asians!!

It is funny, I heard that FTSE companies are for sale. It appears that foreign companies see more value in them as they are happy to pay high premums (XX% for Corus)!!! Someone is making big mistakes... That's either British analysts or the foreign companies.

[bpoole] 30/1/2007 16:03

China's 21st-Century
Nuclear Energy Plan

by Marsha Freeman

The People's Republic of China is implementing an energy program which will bring online as many as to 30 new nuclear power plants over the next 15 years, and which has put China in the forefront of world research and development in nuclear science and engineering. This effort stands in stark contrast to the situation in the United States, where the Bush Administration's "pro-nuclear" energy plan is to try get one new commercial power plant built over the next decade, and to delay development of advanced reactor systems-some of which the U.S. tested decades ago-into the indefinite future.

The Chinese economy has been growing at an average rate of 8% per year, with electricity demand growing twice that fast. The Ministry of Electric Power has estimated that 15-20% of China's present energy demand cannot be met, and that 100 million Chinese have no access to electricity. Last year, China's State Electricity Regulatory Commission warned that the situation was worsening, as the country faced, in the Summer of 2004, a shortfall twice as large as that of the year before. To keep up with its rate of economic growth, China estimates that it will have to double its electric-generating capacity every decade. At 385,000 MW (megawatts) of current online capacity, China has an electric grid system second only to the United States.

Simply expanding the use of coal to meet this growing demand is not an option. Already 40% of China's railroad capacity is dedicated to hauling more than 1 billion tons of coal per year (two-thirds of China's energy is produced from burning coal). Alhough China is the world's sixth-largest producer of petroleum, it now imports one-third of its oil. As far back as the late 1970s, China knew it had to go nuclear; now it is systematically carrying out the multifaceted program that will make it a world leader in nuclear energy technology.

[bpoole] 30/1/2007 15:40

China

January: According to the China's People's Daily, the National Development and Reform Commission announced plans in 2004 to increase installed nuclear capacity to 36 million-kilowatts by 2020, and is contemplating adding 2 or more reactors every year for the next 16 years. An Energy Information Administration (EIA) 1998 report noted that China's nuclear industry would grow faster than that of any other nation. But the current rapid growth of Chinese nuclear capacity has already made the projections supporting that statement appear conservative.

[mzj71852] 30/1/2007 12:02

why down today any news

[jeeves2] 30/1/2007 11:25

in property its position,position,position...in power supply its,nuclear,nuclear,nuclear.......or what else ?

[bpoole] 30/1/2007 08:17

I believe the government will announce the building of some nuclear plants which should push up the share price, then they will sell the rest of their holding.

[bpoole] 29/1/2007 08:21

Speedy, I agree the existing plants have reached their sell by date.
The EU have said there will have to be more nuclear plants built.
I cannot see any government excluding nuclear power from their energy programme.
There has been a hell of a lot of money pumped into this company since re-listing.
These large institutions have not been investing in clapped out old plants.

[speedy] 26/1/2007 16:31

Bpoole - sorry to rain on the parade. These plants are well beyond their sell by dates. Management have some hard decisions to make. Do they maintain temperatures in the boilers and shorten plant life or cut back to say 80% output and last until
the next weakest link breaks? I am sure they will have their eye on the projected 20%+ shortfall in capacity in 2015 in making this decision.
I agree that some, two or three, nuclear plants should be built. Given that BGY has most expertise it is a matter of when, not if, they get involved.
Of perhaps more importance is the price of carbon. Recent forecasts suggest a marginal price of two dollars per tonne and my view is that this is already in the share price. I think the price of carbon may prove to be much higher but this will take some years to resolve.

[bpoole] 26/1/2007 10:15

watwungyi, an excellent study, I agree with everything you say.
I can't see any future without nuclear energy. There have been so significant finds of oil for quite some time now and what there is is getting harder to extract. What oil there is comes mainly from the middle east that could be turned off at any time as could the gas supply from Russia. Any government would be silly not to invest in nuclear energy but, then we do have a silly government at the moment.
The plants have at the moment are old and I foresee a lot of outages. I am betting on an announcement that there will be at least six plants built. Sizewell C for a start. They already started building that one and had all the concrete base finished.
There has been a perfect head and shoulders formed so, according to TA we should see a fall from here. Maybe back to 400. Then a double bottom would have formed and should see a big rise from there.

[watwungyi] 18/1/2007 09:58

I jumped in because the prospect for the company looks good. I first noticed it last year when shares are down to 400p. Then I studied some more details about it. The positive side is that it has kind of fixed electricity prices for next FY as well as some residual to sell direct to consumers, through British Energy I guess, which has been quite reputable among its customers.
Despite boilers issue, the management somehow is able to give us a figure for this year output and next year. Perhaps the news, which I expect very soon, that bust boilers are functionin to almost full capacity will help share price It has so much cash accumulated and capex will be around £300M for two consecutive years, these figures should be treated as a long term capital investment which should be amortised gradually. Divdend is said to be paid for the first time and the div yeild seems attractive. No minority interests, operations are only in UK added some assurance to the visibility of company's prospect.
The negative sides are that, first the future of nuclear energy is yet to be decided although successive govts will not be foolish enough to significantly reduce the amount of electricity generating from nuclear energy. It would woresen 'energy gap'. Secondly, the company has experienced financial crisis in the past and that has not completely gone away, the govt intervened and still act as a major shareholders. And if the lives of its reactors are not extended, then that's gonna be the end of it, as it has no exposure to alternatives, like BP.
Although its PE is low compared to Centrica of IPR or SPW and the likes, it might be that uncertain fuutre is reflected in low rating PE.
So we need to look at tradign update and 3rd quarter result out in Feb very carefully. I estimate its unit margin to be greater than £19/MWhr which includes amortisation. So if the £600M to be spent on improving its boilers and safety std are to be amortised over ten years, taking £60M each year and staff cost to remain in line with CPI, its cash flow for this year wil be nearly £200M and expect to increase quite significantly in 07-08 then gradually increase.
On the basis of these calculation, I estimate share price is undervalued. The only negative sentiment comes from boiler issues, which I think is not as bad as it was reported. After repair, output is bound to increase. So in the long term, this should be a good buy.

[bpoole] 17/1/2007 14:57

Looks like a head and shoulders developing on the chart.
Could be a chance to pick some more up at 400.

[bpoole] 17/1/2007 14:55

Deutsche Bank sold 3m shares, holding dropped from 10% to 6%.
I suppose Barclays picked some of them up.
The EU have said they must consider nuclear power as energy is unreliable from Russia. It is inevitable there will be an announcement soon regarding building new nuclear power stations

[scania320] 12/1/2007 21:00

fun starts wednesday am watch rns.all back to as near normal....

[bpoole] 11/1/2007 15:45

Looks like we got support at 460.
I've topped up.

[maqsud] 10/1/2007 18:26

trend seems to be reversing..could well see a decent rise tomorrow...
statement from BGY was due on tuesday according to Sunday Telegraph???

[only who?] 10/1/2007 12:18

Seems to be at the moment, but I still reckon 400-410p is the floor.

[bpoole] 10/1/2007 11:06

This fall is coming just at the right time, I want to buy some for my grandson.
There maybe support at 460.

[soulman08] 08/1/2007 21:18

how do you know about the update

[maqsud] 08/1/2007 14:58

update of BGY to be made tomorrow morning...
could be an interesting RNS...