Brit Insurance Share Discussion Threads

[envirovision] 10/3/2010 13:56

As i say anyone thats involved with that web site is highly questionable. Come to think of it, half the posters on its boards are brain dead and/or total bull sh%ers. AVOID !

[boadicea] 10/3/2010 13:46

Not the first time EJ has got it seriously wrong. I have ceased to take much notice of his contributions.

In this case, the statement is so surprising (with an obvious likely cause) that I immediately checked it. If I had read on a bit further I needn't have bothered as others had already done so.
I can only assume that EJ only turned his attention to BRE within the past week or so and so had not noticed the recent share consolidation.

[edmundshaw] 10/3/2010 10:22

Seems a bit imprecise to me. The error with the dividend makes it sound like he has not really got involved with the company numbers.

TBH i'm not a great fan of EJ; he writes well, certainly, but that is not the same as having good analytical skills. I recall a previous poor result on a property stock I was intrested in. He was very compelling, lots of good soundbites, but wrong. I may be a bit biased, I suppose...

[envirovision] 10/3/2010 09:51

Regretfully a lot of the people who write or interview for that web site are highly incompetent, i should ignore the whole article if i were you, its bound to be ill informed and not cover many important facts.

[jtcod] 10/3/2010 09:38

Perhaps someone should e-mail him and bring it to his attention?

[crawford] 10/3/2010 09:35

Effortless,
that's what I thought, thanks

edit - JT, thanks also.

[jtcod] 10/3/2010 09:35

He made a mistake Crawford imo. It was 15p in 2008 before the 4 for 1 adjustment.

[effortless cool] 10/3/2010 09:34

That seems to be what he is saying, but I think he is wrong.

The 15p per share base was set before the recent consolidation; if the board planned to maintain that same nominal base post-consolidation, they would have to have announced it as it is price-sensitive information.

I think the new base dividend post-consolidation should be considered to be 60p. I suspect there would be a shareholder revolt on the Omega scale if this was cut to 15p.

[crawford] 10/3/2010 09:26

I'm surprised by this comment:

"Looking further ahead, the board has said 15p a share (the total dividend paid in 2008) will be the base for growing the 'distributions' per share. This would equate to a 2% yield (sic) albeit with a likely tax advantage. So be aware, the per share distribution is going to taper significantly from an 8% total return for 2009 although a 4% final distribution due for 2009 - with the share price about 745p - may still lend support in the short term."

Is Edmond saying that the return is going to fall from the 60p payout this year?

[jtcod] 10/3/2010 09:01

Excellent write-up palmleaf thanks for posting.

[crawford] 10/3/2010 08:41

Lloyds underwriters report:

[jonwig] 09/3/2010 15:13

Needs to be voted on by shareholders and approved by Dutch court - could be some while.

[envirovision] 09/3/2010 14:52

I am trying to work out on what dates the new dividends or should i say share payments will be made now and in future.

Has anyone got this info or links to where its published?

[crawford] 09/3/2010 11:21

the latest comments from the Sage:

Interesting read about insurance and what he calls the float (starts page 6).

[jtcod] 03/3/2010 12:15

I agree that BRE management show good evidence of prudence in the running of the company and i believe the CEO has a decent grasp of the wider issues of the industry also.

Like you though edmund I haven't gone overboard in the insurance sector but I do feel the whole sector is undervalued.

[edmundshaw] 03/3/2010 11:55

Certainly seems that CR of around 80% seems unsustainable (nice while it lasts).

But a CR of over 99% for Brit UK for 2 years (albeit only 1/4 of the business) looks like something that can only get better.

Development of Group ultimate net loss ratio by underwriting year looks a more useful table (in the results).

"The net aggregate reserve releases from prior years amounted to £81.2m (2008: £79.1m). In part this arises from the Group's reserving philosophy which aims to make the most recent years, with the greatest uncertainty of result, prudently reserved leaving a potential for subsequent release." sums up the conservative aspect of the business I like.

In the end, though, I think insurance just looks cheap on a long term basis, and the industry is too complex for me to feel confident I can pick the best stocks with any certainty. I have picked a couple that look good to me, based on my rather inadequate analysis, and keep the sector down to a moderate size in the portfolio.

Always interested in the analysis of others here, therefore. :)

[jtcod] 03/3/2010 10:22

I don't pay too much attention to combined ratio's below 96% because they are unsustainable anyway. They either indicate a lucky year, or a young company or a company that will not grow much because they are creaming business.

What matters to me in the insurance sector is that a) I can see evidence of sensible underwriting, b) The company vision for growth is both logical and sensible c) The stock is undervalued on a 5yr average PE basis, d) The float is cheap for the price paid and e) The company has a solid investment strategy.

A strong Div is also necessary for Insurance companies but the rest is all a long term game.

[edmundshaw] 03/3/2010 10:07

JT, I know, I know. Just considering when to add. Sold some fairly useless funds recently, so should have some spare pennies shortly.

Hiscox didn't exactly excite - not cheap enough. Amlin quite nice. Etc, etc.

But if Brit can attain combined ratios closer to theirs, we shall all be well satisfied I hope.

Chaucer next week will be interesting too. Over 8% yield there too.

[crawford] 03/3/2010 10:04

JT,
agreed, very juicy :-)

[jtcod] 03/3/2010 09:59

8.75% Dividend concensus is positive for BRE right now. ;-)

[crawford] 03/3/2010 09:49

02-Mar-10 Morgan Stanley Equal-weight 742.00p 912.00p 892.00p Upgrade

They have a 892p price target, slightly down after results.

[crawford] 02/3/2010 12:12

Morning broker moves round-up

Brit Insurance raised to equal-weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley.

[dilly4] 01/3/2010 14:46

sometimes you have to take the money & run ,sometimes not.

[crawford] 01/3/2010 14:34

Cup?

Steady recovery throughout today.