Bp Share Discussion Threads

[thewheeliedealer] 14/9/2020 21:00

Hi all,

My mate Peter @Conkers3 and myself did a ‘Twin Petes Investing’ Podcast a few days ago and part of our discussion covers BP. We also chatted about loads of other Stocks and the outlook for Markets as we move to what can often be a rocky time of the year.

Anyway, if you use Apple, Audioboom, Overcast or Spotify you can find it under the 'Conkers Corner' Channel (you want TPI Podcast 31) and you can find it on Soundcloud at the link below.

I hope you enjoy it and find it useful,

Cheers, WD
@wheeliedealer

[spacedust] 14/9/2020 19:07

Hiw are credit suisse feeling? They have 350p target......price on its way to 210p

[sarkasm] 14/9/2020 17:35

Second quarter interim dividend for 2020

Payments of dividends in sterling

On 4 August 2020, the Directors of BP p.l.c. announced that the interim dividend for the second quarter 2020 would be US$0.0525 per ordinary share (US$0.315 per ADS). This interim dividend is to be paid on 25 September 2020 to shareholders on the share register on 14 August 2020. The dividend is payable in cash in sterling to holders of ordinary shares and in US dollars to holders of ADSs. The board has decided not to offer a scrip dividend alternative in respect of the second quarter 2020 dividend. Dividend reinvestment plans have been made available for this dividend for ordinary shareholders and ADS holders (subject to certain exceptions) to receive additional BP shares.

Sterling dividends payable in cash will be converted from US dollars at an average of the market exchange rate over the four dealing days from 8 to 11 September 2020 (GBP1 = US$1.29846). Accordingly, the amount of sterling dividend payable in cash on 25 September 2020 will be:

4.0433 pence per share.

Details of the second quarter dividend and timetable are available at bp.com/dividends. For further information on your dividend payment options visit bp.com/drip.

This information is provided by RNS, the news service of the London Stock Exchange. RNS is approved by the Financial Conduct Authority to act as a Primary Information Provider in the United Kingdom. Terms and conditions relating to the use and distribution of this information may apply. For further information, please contact [e-mail] or visit www.rns.com.

RNS may use your IP address to confirm compliance with the terms and conditions, to analyse how you engage with the information contained in this communication, and to share such analysis on an anonymised basis with others as part of our commercial services. For further information about how RNS and the London Stock Exchange use the personal data you provide us, please see our Privacy Policy.

END

DIVGZGMLLDMGGZG

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 14, 2020 05:05 ET (09:05 GMT)

[sarkasm] 14/9/2020 15:01

BP Says Oil Demand Growth Era Over
by Bloomberg
|
Rakteem Katakey
|
Monday, September 14, 2020

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BP Says Oil Demand Growth Era Over
BP says the relentless growth of oil demand is over.

(Bloomberg) -- BP Plc said the relentless growth of oil demand is over, becoming the first supermajor to call the end of an era many thought would last another decade or more.

Oil consumption may never return to levels seen before the coronavirus crisis took hold, BP said in a report on Monday. Even its most bullish scenario sees demand no better than “broadly flat” for the next two decades as the energy transition shifts the world away from fossil fuels.

BP is making a profound break from orthodoxy. From the bosses of corporate energy giants to ministers from OPEC states, senior figures from the industry have insisted that oil consumption will see decades of growth. Time and again, they have described it as the only commodity that can satisfy the demands of an increasing global population and expanding middle class.

The U.K. giant is describing a different future, where oil’s supremacy is challenged, and ultimately fades. That explains why BP has taken the boldest steps so far among peers to align its business with the goals of the Paris climate accord. Just six months after taking the top job, Chief Executive Officer Bernard Looney said in August he’d shrink oil and gas output by 40% over the next decade and spend as much as $5 billion a year building one of the world’s largest renewable-power businesses.

That’s because he suspects oil use may already have peaked as a result of the pandemic, stricter government policies and changes in consumer behavior. BP’s energy outlook shows consumption slumping 50% by 2050 in one scenario, and by almost 80% in another. In a “business-as-usual” situation, demand would recover but then flatline near 100 million barrels a day for the next 20 years.

BP isn’t the only big oil company adapting its business to the energy transition. Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Total SE and others in Europe have announced similar pivots toward cleaner operations as customers, governments and investors increasingly call for change.
Three Possible Futures

BP’s report comes ahead of three days of online briefings starting Monday on its clean-energy and climate strategy. The study considers three scenarios, which aren’t predictions but nevertheless cover a wide range of possible outcomes over the next 30 years and form the basis of the new strategy Looney announced in August.

The “Rapid” approach sees new policy measures leading to a significant increase in carbon prices. The “Net Zero” course reinforces Rapid with big shifts in societal behavior, while the “Business-as-usual” projection assumes that government policies, technology and social preferences continue to evolve as they have in the recent past.

In the first two scenarios, oil demand falls as a result of the coronavirus, the report shows. “It subsequently recovers but never back to pre-Covid levels,” according to Spencer Dale, BP’s chief economist. “It brings forward the point at which oil demand peaks to 2019.”

That contrasts with what many others are forecasting. Russell Hardy, chief executive officer of trading giant Vitol Group, said on Monday that oil demand is poised for 10 years of growth before a steady decline. He predicts consumption will return to pre-virus levels by the end of next year.

BP’s outlook last year contained a scenario called “More energy,” which had oil demand growing steadily to about 130 million barrels a day in 2040. There’s no such scenario this time.

“Demand for oil falls over the next 30 years,” BP said in the report. “The scale and pace of this decline is driven by the increasing efficiency and electrification of road transportation.̶1;
Covid Impact

The pandemic shattered oil consumption this year as countries locked down to prevent infections from spreading. While demand has since improved, and crude prices with it, the public health crisis is still raging in many parts of the world and the outlook remains uncertain in the absence of a vaccine.

The impact, including lasting behavioral changes like increased working from home, will affect economic activity and prosperity in the developing world, and ultimately demand for liquid fuels, according to BP. That means it won’t be able to offset already falling consumption in developed countries.

Demand for liquid fuels is seen falling to less than 55 million barrels a day by 2050 in BP’s Rapid scenario, and to around 30 million a day in Net Zero. The drop is mostly in developed economies and in China. In India, other parts of Asia and Africa, demand remains broadly flat in the first scenario but slips below 2018 levels from the mid-2030s in the second.

Other points in the energy outlook:

The Rapid scenario has carbon emissions from energy use falling by around 70% by 2050, while they drop by more than 95% in Net Zero. Business-as-usual sees them peaking in the mid-2020s.
Demand for all primary energy -- the raw materials from which energy is derived -- increases by about 10% in Rapid and Net Zero in the period, and by around 25% in the third scenario.
In Rapid, non-fossil fuels account for the majority of global energy from the early 2040s.
Growth in China’s energy demand slows sharply relative to past trends, reaching a peak in the early 2030s in all three scenarios.
Renewable energy -- excluding hydro -- increases more than 10-fold in both Rapid and Net Zero, with its share in primary energy rising from 5% in 2018 to more than 40% by 2050 in Rapid and almost 60% in Net Zero.
Natural gas consumption is seen broadly unchanged to 2050 in Rapid and around 35% higher in business-as-usual. Demand falls by about 40% by 2050 in Net Zero.

[sarkasm] 14/9/2020 14:28

BP says ‘peak oil’ demand may never recover to pre-coronavirus levels

Oil & GasDownstream

By Andrew Fawthrop 14 Sep 2020

In an energy outlook, the oil major said 2019 might have been the year of peak oil demand as increasing ‎efficiency and electrification of road transport drive reductions
BP Flickr Mike Mozart

BP plans to reduce its oil production in line with net-zero strategy (Credit: Flickr/Mike Mozart)

BP says global oil demand might never recover to “peak” pre-pandemic levels, amid a fundamental restructuring of the energy system towards low carbon.

In its latest “energy outlook” report, the UK oil major said that in a net-zero scenario global oil demand could fall by as much as 80% by 2050.

Two of the three energy-transition scenarios modelled by the outlook show peak oil demand is not expected to return to the heights of almost 100 million barrels per day (bpd) seen in 2019.

Even in BP’s “business-as-usual scenario”, in which energy policies and consumption habits continue without acceleration towards low carbon, world oil demand is seen to plateau in the early 2020s.

Increasing ‎efficiency and electrification of road transportation is expected to be the key driver of falling oil demand over the coming years.


BP targets diversification as coronavirus hastens peak oil demand

The coronavirus health crisis has dealt a serious blow to fuel demand worldwide, particularly as a result of travel restrictions put in place as part of regional lockdown measures.

In its August market update, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast an 8.1 million bpd drop in 2020 oil demand compared the previous year, followed up by an almost three million bpd shortfall in 2021.

In recent months, BP has sought to reposition itself as an “integrated energy company” as part of a major restructuring drive away from fossil fuels.

This net-zero strategy will involve cutting oil and gas production 40% by 2030, and increasing low-carbon investments ten-fold over the same period to $5bn annually – with a target of increasing its renewable capacity from the current level of 2.5 gigawatts (GW) to 50GW.

BP chief executive Bernard Looney said: “Even as the pandemic has dramatically reduced global carbon emissions, the world remains ‎on an unsustainable path. However, the analysis shows that, with decisive ‎policy measures and more low-carbon choices from both companies and consumers, the ‎energy transition still can be delivered.”

Further details on the oil major’s net-zero strategy are expected to be outlined this week during a series of company presentations to shareholders.


Policy support and shifting consumption habits crucial to lowering carbon emissions

BP’s energy outlook identifies three scenarios for the low-carbon transition through to 2050: business-as-usual, in which existing policies and consumption continues unchanged; rapid, in which new policy measures are introduced to lower carbon emissions; and net zero, in which new policies are supported by “significant shifts” in societal and consumer behaviour.

“Delaying these policy measures and societal shifts ‎may significantly increase the scale of the challenge and lead to significant additional ‎economic costs and disruption,” the company warned.

In each of the cases, global energy demand is forecast to grow, driven by increasing prosperity and living standards in the emerging world, alongside the diversification of the global energy mix where hydrocarbons play a diminishing role.

The report noted: “The scale of the shift varies significantly across ‎the scenarios, with the share of hydrocarbons in primary energy declining from around 85% in ‎‎2018 to between 65%-20% by 2050, and renewable energy rising to 20%-60%‎.̶1;

A “significant increase” in carbon prices – as much as $250 per tonne of CO2 in developing countries by 2050 – will be necessary to incentivise the shift to clean energy, it added.

Demand for natural gas is expected to prove more resilient than oil, helped by “broad-based demand and the increasing ‎availability of global supplies”.

In a net-zero scenario, peak gas demand is expected to occur in the mid-2020s, but if a business-as-usual scenario unfolds it will continue to increase over the next three decades, and could be a third higher by 2050 compared to today’s levels.

Wind, solar, bioenergy and hydrogen have all been tipped for significant growth over the coming years, alongside the widespread electrification of the global energy system.

[dartboard1] 14/9/2020 13:58

Dan, they're talking down "relentless" future growth of demand. They know though that supply is going to be impacted in coming years with massive capex cuts this year and next... BP is still forecasting oil price at $50 next year through to 2030 and then $60

[the grumpy old men] 14/9/2020 13:48

OPEC cuts 2020 oil demand forecast, trims 2021 outlook on pandemic fallout
Published Mon, Sep 14 20207:40 AM EDT
Sam Meredith
@smeredith19

Key Points

OPEC has downwardly revised its outlook for global oil demand to an average of 90.2 million barrels per day in 2020.

The report comes as energy market participants become increasingly concerned about a faltering economic recovery and stumbling fuel demand in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.

Looking ahead, OPEC said the negative impact on oil demand in Asia was expected to persist through the first six months of 2021.

[the grumpy old men] 14/9/2020 13:36

BP: Up to 550GW new solar and wind capacity could be added each year by 2030

By Jules Scully Sep 14, 2020 11:26 AM BST 0


Aided by falling production costs and policies encouraging a shift to green energy, renewables’ share of the global energy mix could soar from 5% in 2018 to almost 60% by 2050, BP has said in its latest energy outlook report.

The oil and gas major has considered three scenarios that explore different pathways for the global energy system to 2050. In its ‘rapid transition’ and ‘net zero’ scenarios, the average annual increase in solar and wind capacity in the next 15 years could be as high as 350GW and 550GW respectively. However BP's most ambitious scenario - 'net zero' - suggests annual wind and solar deployment could rocket to just below 1TW by 2035 - 2040. Since 2000, the average annual growth is said to have been around 60GW.

Even in its ‘business as usual’ case – which assumes that government policies, technologies and social preferences continue to evolve in a manner and speed seen over the recent past – the 235GW average annual rate of solar and wind capacity construction over the outlook is still considerably higher than past rates.

In all three scenarios, emerging economies account for most of the expansion in renewable energy, driven by stronger growth in power generation and by the increasing share of renewables in power, especially at the expense of coal.

However, the advances in solar and wind generation in the 'rapid transition' and 'net zero' cases is followed by a subsequent slowing as the costs of intermittency associated with greater penetration of renewables is reflected in the pattern of capacity additions, which peak around 2035 before dropping sharply. BP said this hump in the pattern of new additions raises the risk of excess capacity within the renewables supply chain.

In the two cases that feature a more rapid renewables shift, a significant amount of solar and wind energy is predicted to be used to produce green hydrogen, with this share increasing to as much as one-third of total installed capacity by 2050.

The outlook reveals that the rising role of renewable energy comes at the expense of hydrocarbons, with coal consumption declining significantly in all three scenarios and never recovering back to its peak level of 2013.

All three cases see oil demand falling over the next 30 years. The report notes the level of oil demand in both rapid and net zero does not fully recover from the sharp drop caused by COVID-19, implying that 2019 levels of 100 million barrels a day will be the peak for consumption.

BP CEO Bernard Looney said the new energy outlook was instrumental in helping the company develop its net zero strategy. ‎“Even as the pandemic has dramatically reduced global carbon emissions, the world remains ‎on an unsustainable path. However, the analysis in the outlook shows that, with decisive ‎policy measures and more low carbon choices from both companies and consumers, the ‎energy transition still can be delivered,” he said.

After increasing its stake in global solar developer Lightsource BP to 50%, BP earlier this year announced plans to become net zero by 2050 as it looks to amass a 50GW renewables portfolio in the next ten years. The company is looking to increase its annual investment in low-carbon generation from its current US$500 million level to US$5 billion by 2030.

[dandanactionman] 14/9/2020 12:40

All IMHO DYORI have a 'small' holding in this. Nothing which is going to break the bank but is under water.The question is why are BP almost trying to talk down their shares? Positive note from broker and then BP seems to talk down their own shares.I think that when US opens (in a couple of hours) there will be more negativity and BP will end down more by end of day.Daniel

[waldron] 14/9/2020 09:56

BP says oil demand may have peaked already
by Bloomberg
14/09/2020, 7:17 am



BP Plc said the relentless growth of oil demand is over, becoming the first supermajor to call the end of an era many thought would last another decade or more.

Oil consumption may never return to levels seen before the coronavirus crisis took hold, BP said in a report on Monday. Even its most bullish scenario sees demand no better than “broadly flat” for the next two decades as the energy transition shifts the world away from fossil fuels.

[waldron] 14/9/2020 09:43

CREDIT SUISSE RAISES BP TO 'OUTPERFORM' (NEUTRAL) - PRICE TARGET 350 (400) PENCE

[scruff1] 13/9/2020 08:46

September is the hurricane season as the sea has warmed over the summer

[adrian j boris] 13/9/2020 06:59

HURRICANE SEASON






TROPICAL STORM SALLY

[adrian j boris] 13/9/2020 06:54

Gulf of Mexico oil platforms evacuated as tropical storm brews
Sep. 12, 2020 9:16 PM ET|About: Chevron Corporation (CVX)|By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

Gulf of Mexico oil producers are evacuating offshore facilities today ahead of the anticipated arrival of tropical storm Sally, which is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane.

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) says it has started evacuating all staff from its Blind Faith and Petronius platforms and initiated shut-in procedures, while production at its other offshore platforms was unaffected.

Murphy Oil (NYSE:MUR) says it is preparing to evacuate non-essential personnel from its most easterly facilities and monitoring the storm for any effect on other properties.

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B), BHP, BP and Hess (NYSE:HES) say they are monitoring the storm and would take action if needed.

At least 1.3M bbl/day of oil production was shut last month as Hurricane Laura ripped through the Gulf of Mexico and the southwest Louisiana coast.

[cobourg1] 12/9/2020 16:40

Whats the general consensus of if this divi will be maintained?

...................................................................................

I think it probably will be. Can't see the Board of BP wanting the share price any lower than this, which a reduced dividend would provoke.

We moan about the share price but where else can you get a dividend return like this on a large stable company? In 20 years time there will still be a profitable company called BP IMO but it's logo will be painted on the sides of wind generators and etched into the glass of photovoltaic cells, or emblazoned on the sides of hydrogen tanks, and at my age sadly I wont see it!

[porsche1945] 12/9/2020 13:08

Can hardly bleve what has happened to my investments in oil shares, can only pray they come back over next couple of years. Have stopped any further investments in U.K. and will just invest in S&P trackers, UK is uninvestable, it was a mess since 2009 anyway, brexit is a disaster, a 40 year old trade agreement we helped build and profit from, wheezing useless Boris and Dominic scummings and the brexit loony self harming knuckle draggers trashing the currency and everything else, the U.K. has managed ONE trade agreement in THREE years, U.K. is only going to get poorer, in every way and the market with it, ftse 100 below where it was 20 years ago. Terminal.

[waldron] 11/9/2020 17:42

Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 40.09 +0.80%
Gasoline NYMEX 1.11 +1.81%
Natural Gas NYMEX 2.74 -1.97%
WTI 37.51 USD +0.70%

FTSE 100
6,032.09 +0.48%
Dow Jones
27,707.65 +0.63%
CAC 40
5,034.14 +0.20%
SBF 120
3,980.6 +0.13%
Euro STOXX 50
3,315.81 +0.00%
DAX
13,202.84 -0.05%
Ftse Mib
19,830.6 +0.05%



Eni
7.561 -0.35%



Total
32.515 -0.67%



Engie
11.775 -0.42%

Orange
9.496 -0.13%


Bp
262.05 -0.08%

Vodafone
110.22 +0.73%

Royal Dutch Shell A
1,083.4 -0.73%



Royal Dutch Shell B
1,032 -0.94%

Tullow Oil (TLW)
16.09 -0.60 (-3.59%)

[adg] 11/9/2020 12:57

Current divi i calculate at about 6.5%
Whats the general consensus of if this divi will be maintained?
TIA

[superiorshares] 11/9/2020 07:51

Smith99

Very Liebour Party and Europhile of you .

BYE BYE EU :-) :-)

[spacedust] 10/9/2020 20:06

A sharp decline to 210p first stop

[spacedust] 10/9/2020 20:06

60p guaranteed