Bp Share Discussion Threads

[the grumpy old men] 25/12/2017 15:12

Fitch: LNG market getting crowded, notably for Russia
today, 17:30Daniel J. GraeberNeftegaz.RU34

The markets for LNG will likely be oversupplied over the next few years, leaving funding at a premium, notably for Russia, Fitch Ratings announced on December 22, 2017.



«The LNG market is likely to be oversupplied for several years due to additional LNG capacity being commissioned in the United States, Australia and elsewhere, potentially resulting in depressed spot prices until demand catches up,» the ratings agency said.



The U.S. has pushed more shale gas into the open market in the form of LNG, hoping to eat into the Russian market share in Europe. Australia, meanwhile, aims to advance into the energy-hungry Asian market with gas from its giant Wheatstone LNG project.



Russia's Novatek, meanwhile, set its foot into the global sector when it sent its 1st shipment of LNG to the market in early December.

The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies last year found Russian energy company Gazprom could compete with LNG from the United States if it decided to engage in a price war.



The study at the time said the price for Russian gas exported through pipelines to Europe was discounted to U.S. LNG by as much as $1 per million British thermal units.

This year, commodity pricing group S&P Global Platts said gas prices in Europe were too low to support U.S. LNG imports.



The report added, however, that contracts from companies like Gazprom may have been «tinkered with» to make piped gas more competitive.

Fitch said in its report that Russia has been able to improve its position on the global LNG market, especially with Novatek's recent shipment from its Yamal LNG project.



Novatek could secure some funding support from partners not already the target of U.S. sanctions and by establishing partners with companies in rich countries like Saudi Arabia and India.



Globally, Fitch said securing long-term contracts for any of the major LNG players will be challenging as the field gets more crowded. Russia may therefore be at a slight disadvantage because of Western sanctions.



Bankers in China, the world's 2nd-largest economy, have provided funding for Novatek's efforts, but there's no guarantee Beijing will continue to help.



China, Fitch said, is considering LNG projects in Alaska, a gas pipeline from Central Asia, a 2nd LNG effort in the Russian Arctic, as well as Gazprom's Power of Siberia gas pipeline «and it may not necessarily get involved in all these projects simultaneously.»

[the grumpy old men] 25/12/2017 14:41

HAPPY HOLIDAYS

ENJOY THE FESTIVITIES

[ariane] 24/12/2017 14:37

BP Supercomputer Now World's Most Powerful for Commercial Research
Center for High-Performance Computing
Center for High-Performance Computing

By MarEx 2017-12-23 15:49:28

BP has more than doubled the total computing power of its Center for High-Performance Computing in Houston, making it the most powerful supercomputer in the world for commercial research.

Increased computing power, speed and storage reduce the time needed to analyze large amounts of seismic data to support exploration, appraisal and development plans as well as other research and technology developments throughout BP.

The Center for High-Performance Computing provides critical support to BP's upstream business segment, where it serves as the worldwide hub for research computing. BP’s computer scientists and mathematicians at the Center have enabled industry breakthroughs in advanced seismic imaging and rock physics research to help with reservoir modeling.

BP’s downstream business also is using the supercomputer for fluid dynamic research to study hydrocarbon flows at refineries and pipelines to improve operational safety.

Working with Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) and Intel using HPE’s Apollo System and Intel’s Knights Landing processors, the recent upgrade has boosted the processing speed of BP’s supercomputer from four petaflops to nine petaflops. A petaflop of processing speed is one thousand trillion floating point operations, or “flops,” per second.

The supercomputer has a total memory of 1,140 terabytes (1.14 petabytes) and 30 petabytes of storage, the equivalent of over 500,000 iPhones.

Since the Center opened in 2013, BP has quadrupled its computing power and doubled its storage capacity and plans to continue expanding its computing capability in 2018.

[optomistic] 21/12/2017 17:22

Hope so ONLYONESTORM but in the meantime the deal announced today with Rosneft could have given us today's boost which is very welcome.

[onlyonestorm] 21/12/2017 16:41

Will the divi ever rise above 10 cents a qtr???

[optomistic] 21/12/2017 15:23

A step in the right direction...didn't expect the move so soon...big smile now :-)))

[waldron] 21/12/2017 14:24

BP PLC

On Wednesday, shares in London, the UK headquartered BP PLC recorded a trading volume of 2.98 million shares. The stock ended the day at $40.95, climbing 0.76% from the last trading session. The Company's shares have advanced 5.00% in the past month, 8.62% in the previous three months, and 9.55% on an YTD basis. The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages by 3.04% and 12.34%, respectively. Furthermore, shares of BP PLC, which operates as an integrated oil and gas company worldwide, have a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 62.74. Get the full research report on BP for free by clicking below at:

www.wallstequities.com/registration/?symbol=BP

[optomistic] 21/12/2017 10:32

510 looks to be the the current barrier to an upward move but clear this and the 529 mentioned by Bracke is just a short distance away.

[sarkasm] 20/12/2017 22:27

Now Is Not The Time To Sell, Here's Why



Dec. 20, 2017 4:56 PM ET|
6 comments|
About: BP p.l.c. (BP)
Achilles Research
Achilles Research
Long/short equity, special situations
(24,265 followers)
Summary

BP's profit picture has improved dramatically thanks to recovering price realizations in the upstream segment.

Downstream business provides downside protection in the event of a market downturn.

BP covers its capital expenditures and dividends with cash flow, making a dividend cut today unlikely.

There is a good chance that upside results continue to shine in the coming quarters.

An investment in BP throws off a 5.9 percent yield and comes with upside.

BP (BP) is a promising investment holding for investors that look for more than just capital upside tied to a continued recovery in price realizations. BP has one of the most attractive yields in the sector, and the dividend should be sustainable in 2018. An investment in BP at this stage yields 5.9 percent.

After a disastrous 2016 that saw energy prices fall to their lowest levels in more than a decade, investors are now rediscovering big energy companies with attractive yields. While investors ran from the energy sector in 2016 on concerns over collapsing oil prices, the industry's prospects have improved dramatically in 2017.

BP's shares have surged lately, thanks to a continued recovery in price realizations, and shrinking concerns in the sector about dividend cuts.

Source: StockCharts.com

Though BP's stock has done well for investors since September, I think investors should let profits run. Here's why.
Upstream Segment Has Significant Upside

The beauty of BP's energy business is that the company runs both an upstream and downstream business, which helps the company offset earnings and cash flow volatility.

For instance, BP's upstream profits turned negative in 2016 when major oil companies struggled with the sudden collapse of energy prices. However, BP's downstream business helped cushion the blow as lower input prices improved margins and free cash flow. In other words, downstream businesses are hedges for energy companies that pay off when their upstream businesses take a hit in an environment of lower energy prices.

But oil prices have bounced back in 2017, and BP's financial results have improved greatly.

BP's upstream replacement cost profit before interest and tax - the company's proxy for earnings - totaled $1.6 billion in the third quarter which compares favorably to a loss of $0.2 billion in the year-ago quarter. Thanks to a stronger refinery environment, BP's downstream profits improved from $1.4 billion in Q3-2016 to $2.3 billion in Q3-2017. Importantly, BP's operating cash flow increased 36 percent year-over-year.

Source: BP

Strong profit and cash flow growth on the back of recovering price realizations is the primary reason why I think that BP should remain in investors' portfolios. The outlook certainly looks good heading into 2018.

The Federal Reserve recently hiked interest rates to a target range of 1.25-1.50 percent due to strong economic growth projections. Republicans are on track to push tax reform through congress, and will most likely succeed. U.S. employers continue to create hundreds of thousands of jobs each month, and OPEC and non-OPEC countries agreed in November to extend output cuts until the end of 2018 which will support oil prices. The oil setup is very bullish, and a strong global economy in 2018 will likely trigger oil demand growth, and, potentially, price growth, too.

Oil prices are in a robust recovery trend, and currently sit near two-year highs.
Chart
WTI Crude Oil Spot Price data by YCharts
Price Gains In 2018 Would Improve Dividend Coverage

BP's underlying cash flow YTD covers the company's capital expenditures as well as the its dividend payments to shareholders. Since the cash flow picture has improved greatly compared to 2016, BP's dividend today actually has a much higher margin of safety than a year ago. Higher price realizations in 2018, obviously, would improve BP's dividend coverage even more. In this scenario, a dividend raise could even be in the cards.

Here's how BP's organic cash flow compares against capital expenditures and dividends.

Source: BP
Asset Sales Would Enhance Cash Flow Profile

BP has guided for asset sales totaling $4.5 billion in 2017, and the energy company will continue to sell non-core assets after 2018. According to guidance, management plans to sell $2-3 billion annually going forward, with asset sales proceeds further enhancing BP's cash flow picture. In other words, the dividend really is quite safe in my opinion.

Source: BP
Strong Yield Play

BP's cash flow has improved considerably in 2017 thanks to a strong rebound in energy prices. Therefore, a dividend cut at this stage is very unlikely in my opinion. Though BP's cash flow isn't as strong as ExxonMobil's (XOM) or Chevron Corp.'s (CVX), for instance, the risk of a dividend cut is rather low, especially in an environment of rising oil prices.
Chart
BP Dividend Yield (NYSE:TTM) data by YCharts
Valuation

BP, despite its high yield, is one of the most affordable energy companies in the sector.

Here's how BP stacks up to its peers.
Chart
BP PE Ratio (Forward 1y) data by YCharts
Your Takeaway

The oil setup is bullish, interest rates are rising and the economic outlook is increasingly optimistic. In other words, chances are that oil prices will continue to rise in 2018 and that BP's upstream results will improve. While investors wait for higher energy prices to make a positive cash flow impact, the energy company pays shareholders one of the highest dividends in the sector.

Considering that BP's underlying cash flow covers its capital expenditures as well as its dividend payments year-to-date, there is no reason to fear a dividend cut. BP hasn't slashed its dividend yet, and it is unlikely that it will cut its payout in an environment of rising oil prices. Now is not the time to sell.

If you like to read more of my articles, and like to be kept up to date with the companies I cover, I kindly ask you that you scroll to the top of this page and click 'follow'. I am largely investing in dividend paying stocks, but also venture out occasionally and cover special situations that offer appealing reward-to-risk ratios and have potential for significant capital appreciation. Above all, my immediate investment goal is to achieve financial independence.

Disclosure: I am/we are long BP.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

[grupo] 20/12/2017 10:46

Broker Forecast - Jefferies International issues a broker note on BP PLC
By BFN News | 10:10 AM | Wednesday 20 December, 2017

Factsheet BP PLC USD0.25 (BP.)


Jefferies International today reaffirms its hold investment rating on BP PLC (LON:BP.) and raised its price target to 520p (from 500p). Story provided by StockMarketWire.com

[waldron] 18/12/2017 10:21

BP plc 33.2% Potential Upside Indicated by Barclays Capital

Posted by: Amilia Stone 18th December 2017

BP plc with EPIC/TICKER (LON:BP) had its stock rating noted as ‘Reiterates217; with the recommendation being set at ‘OVERWEIGHT217; today by analysts at Barclays Capital. BP plc are listed in the Oil & Gas sector within UK Main Market. Barclays Capital have set a target price of 675 GBX on its stock. This indicates the analyst now believes there is a potential upside of 33.2% from the opening price of 506.6 GBX. Over the last 30 and 90 trading days the company share price has increased 14.6 points and increased 55.65 points respectively. The 52 week high for the stock is 529 GBX while the 52 week low is 436.95 GBX.

BP plc has a 50 day moving average of 502.44 GBX and the 200 Day Moving Average price is recorded at 471.41. There are currently 19,938,935,075 shares in issue with the average daily volume traded being 29,864,636. Market capitalisation for LON:BP is £100,751,436,500 GBP.

[ariane] 16/12/2017 09:04

Broker Forecast - JP Morgan Cazenove issues a broker note on BP PLC
By BFN News | 09:30 AM | Friday 15 December, 2017

Factsheet BP PLC USD0.25 (BP.)


JP Morgan Cazenove today reaffirms its overweight investment rating on BP PLC (LON:BP.) and set its price target at 550p. Story provided by StockMarketWire.com

[the grumpy old men] 15/12/2017 16:33

The biggest voices in oil disagree on 2018 outlook
By Grant Smith on 12/15/2017

LONDON (Bloomberg) -- The two most critical forecasts of global oil markets offer contrasting visions for 2018: one in which OPEC finally succeeds in clearing a supply glut, and another where that goal remains elusive.

In the estimation of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, production curbs by the cartel and its allies will finally eliminate the excess oil inventories that have depressed crude prices for more than three years. But in the view of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which advises consumers, that surplus will barely budge.

“Both cannot be right,” said Ole Sloth Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S in Copenhagen. “Whichever way the pendulum swings will have a significant impact on the market.”

OPEC and Russia have eliminated almost two-thirds of a global glut this year as the former rivals jointly constrict their crude production to offset a boom in U.S. shale oil. At the heart of the clash between the 2018 forecasts is whether the alliance can deplete the rest of the overhang without triggering a new flood of American shale.

Late last year, OPEC and Russia set aside decades of rivalry and mistrust to end a slump in global oil markets that has battered their economies. Defying widespread skepticism, they cut oil supplies as promised, and resolved on Nov. 30 to persevere until the end of next year. Brent crude climbed this week to a two-year high above $65/bbl, although prices had slipped to $63.37 as of 11:32 a.m. in London.

Both the IEA and OPEC agree that the coalition’s cuts are working. The surplus oil inventories in developed nations -- OPEC’s main metric for gauging success -- fell to 111 MMbbl in October, from 291 million last November, according to the Paris-based IEA, established in 1974 in the wake of the Arab oil embargo.

Happy New Year?

Where they diverge is on what happens next. OPEC predicts the re-balancing will be complete by late next year as those stockpiles plunge by about 130 MMbbl in 2018. By contrast, the IEA sees inventories remaining steady as new supply growth surpasses gains in demand. It warned OPEC on Thursday that it may be deprived of a “Happy New Year.”

Although both institutions project that demand for OPEC crude will be about 32.3 MMbpd on average in the first half of 2018, their views drift apart as the year progresses. OPEC expects it will need to pump about 34 million barrels day in the second half, while the IEA sees a requirement of just 32.7 MMbpd.

“They live in the same world for the first half of 2018, but divorce into separate universes for the second half,” said Olivier Jakob, managing director at consultants Petromatrix GmbH in Zug, Switzerland. “OPEC believes in strong growth of oil demand; the IEA believes in strong growth of non-OPEC supplies.”

Diverging views

While OPEC expects rival supplies to expand by 1 MMbpd next year, the IEA forecasts non-OPEC to grow by 1.6 MMbpd. The difference partly lies in their conflicting views of the supply source that unleashed the glut OPEC is now battling to clear: U.S. shale oil. OPEC boosted estimates for U.S. crude production this week and now sees an expansion of 720,000 bpd next year. Still, the IEA’s forecast is about 20% higher.

“The uncertainty surrounding shale oil production for next year has resulted in very differing views on the 2018 fundamental picture,” said Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates Ltd. in London.

When OPEC officials invited a range of experts to brief them on the U.S. shale outlook days before their Nov. 30 meeting, they were dismayed by the divergence of opinions, people familiar with the matter said. One of those experts, veteran crude trader Andy Hall, cited the unpredictability of shale as one reason for shuttering his flagship hedge fund this summer.

Shale limits

Saudi Arabian Minister of Energy and Industry Khalid Al-Falih, speaking at the OPEC meeting in Vienna, rejected the IEA’s outlook for 2018 as excessively pessimistic.

There are signs that the U.S. shale boom is slowing. Drillers may have reached the limits in terms of cutting costs and boosting productivity, and investors are finally insisting that profits are shared out rather than funneled back into supply growth.

Yet analysts from Citigroup Inc. to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Commerzbank AG warn that OPEC continues to underestimate the magnitude of the shale revolution.

American producers are rushing to lock in revenues as U.S. crude approaches $60 a barrel, enabling them to finance a new wave of drilling, data compiled by Bloomberg New Energy Finance show.

“The U.S. alone can achieve almost all of the supply growth that OPEC forecasts globally in 2018,” said Carsten Fritsch, an analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt. “So, without question, the IEA’s forecast is more convincing.”

[grupo guitarlumber] 15/12/2017 11:54

BP Makes $200 Million Investment in Solar-Energy Developer Lightsource
15/12/2017 10:37am
Dow Jones News

BP (LSE:BP.)
Intraday Stock Chart

Today : Friday 15 December 2017
Click Here for more BP Charts.

By Adam Clark



BP PLC (BP.LN) said Friday that it has agreed to invest $200 million for a 43% stake in solar-energy company Lightsource Renewable Holdings Ltd.

The oil-and-gas company will make the investment over three years to fund Lightsource's growth pipeline for the acquisition of large-scale solar projects. Lightsource Renewable will be rebranded Lightsource BP, and BP will have two seats on its board of directors.

London-listed BP will pay $50 million on completion of the agreement, which is expected in early 2018, with the remainder of the investment to be paid in instalments over three years.

The deal will create opportunities to integrate solar energy alongside BP's alternative-energy business, it said.

Bob Dudley, chief executive at BP, said that the deal represents a shift in the multinational's approach to solar energy, as it moves away from manufacturing panels and toward developing and managing solar projects.

Lightsource currently has 2 gigawatts of energy capacity under management, of which 1.3 gigawatts was developed in-house. BP said that the company has a project pipeline of 6 gigawatts.

Shares in BP were down 0.30 pence, or 0.1%, at 503.70 pence at 0957 GMT.



Write to Adam Clark at [e-mail]; @AdamDowJones



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

December 15, 2017 05:22 ET (10:22 GMT)

[waldron] 14/12/2017 14:55

Goldman says oil giants poised for best year in decades
By Kelly Gilblom and Nejra Cehic on 12/14/2017

LONDON (Bloomberg) -- Oil’s slump is over and industry domination beckons, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

In 2018, companies from Royal Dutch Shell Plc to ExxonMobil Corp. will find themselves with a surplus of cash to fund dividends, ruling the world of deepwater mega-projects and even coming out ahead in tax negotiations with oil-reliant governments around the globe, according to Michele Della Vigna, Goldman’s head of energy-industry research.

The industry’s success in cutting costs, paired with a low oil price that keeps smaller competitors out of the biggest projects, has created an environment where only major players can compete, Vigna said. That should bolster earnings and return the industry giants to a position of dominance not seen in 20 years.

“It’s a very exciting time,” Vigna said in an interview with Bloomberg television on Thursday. “We’re back to a concentrated market like we had in the 90s,” with the largest companies earning higher returns as the balance of power tips in their favor, he said.

Horrible history

Oil majors had already been struggling for years when crude prices crashed by more than 50% in 2014. Prices as high as $120/bbl just prior to the slump spawned a multitude of smaller competitors, each of which posed a new challenge to majors like BP Plc and Chevron Corp.

“That looked like a great time for the oil sector, but it was a horrendous time for Big Oil,” Vigna said. “Effectively everybody ate their lunch.”

After the commodity plunged three years ago, the market saw an overall retrenchment, with close to $1 trillion taken out of company spending, according to a report from consultant Wood Mackenzie Ltd. published Thursday. Concurrently, banks pulled back from lending to companies based on their oil and gas reserves, which mostly stung smaller players with weaker balance sheets, said Vigna.

That means 90% of mega-projects in the last three years were initiated by the seven largest oil and gas companies, according to Vigna’s analysis. In the prior 10 years, investments in the largest projects were split between 50 companies, he said.

This trend should continue because the economics of complex deep-water projects have got so much better that they now sit lower on the cost curve than shale oil, Vigna said. Big companies will find another benefit from the consolidation of power -- more leverage in negotiations with governments, including on taxation, he added.

New projects, as well as more stable prices, will help boost cash flow and put the super-majors’ finances back on a sustainable footing. Last month, Shell said it would pay its dividend entirely in cash for the first time in two years and BP started buying back shares. Vigna expected more companies will take similar steps in 2018.

“Now that the belt-tightening is done, companies are looking to deliver profitable growth and build for the future,” said Tom Ellacott, a senior V.P. at Wood Mackenzie. “The sector has reset itself to operate at lower commodity prices.”

[bracke] 13/12/2017 17:17

Good afternoon optomistic

"which being the RAFA Christmas dinner was a very pleasurable extended event."
==============================================================================

Yes I bet it was!!