Bp Share Discussion Threads

[waldron] 13/11/2017 13:48

BP CEO: Venezuela Is a Bigger Concern Than the Middle East for Oil Industry
Venezuela is 'defying economic gravity,' BP CEO Bob Dudley says. 'That's a real wild card.'
ByKinsey Grant
Nov 13, 2017 8:25 AM EST
Donald Trump Issues Updated Travel Ban

BP plc (BP - Get Report) isn't as worried about the Middle East as some of its peers, CEO Bob Dudley said. Instead, the London-based oil company is most concerned about Venezuela as a geopolitical threat to the oil industry.

"I think Venezuela is just defying economic gravity," Dudley told CNBC at the Abu Dhabi Petroleum Exhibition & Conference. "I think that's a real wild card."

Venezuela is an OPEC nation and one of the world's largest oil producers. The country is currently mired in debt negotiations with foreign investors that began Monday. It's unclear if Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro will succeed in the debt talks, which could increase the risk of a debt default for the country.

Venezuela is looking to restructure roughly $60 billion in bonds. The country has struggled in refinancing, as U.S. banks are forbidden from buying new Venezuelan bonds due to sanctions imposed by the U.S. government.

Many oil industry leaders have focused concern on the Middle East, where Saudi Arabia's and Iran's relationship has become increasingly delicate.

BP stock dipped 0.7% to $40.01 in premarket trading Monday. Shares have gained 7.8% since the start of the year.

More of What's Trending on TheStreet:

[la forge] 12/11/2017 07:46

Dubai Airshow
Air Transport
Air BP Fuels First EFTA Training Aircraft
by Peter Shaw-Smith
- November 12, 2017, 1:28 AM

Emirates Flight Training Academy has become Air BP's latest customer in the Middle East region, winning a contract to fuel the school's first two Cirrus SR22 G6 training aircraft, which arrived on October 31. The company recently started supplying Emirates in Brazil, at São Paolo Guarulhos International and Viracopos Campinas International airports, and it also has an existing operation at Rio de Janeiro International.

“The first Air BP-fueled flight, an Airbus A380, departed from São Paolo Guarulhos International Airport bound for Dubai International [DXB] on November 3, 2017,” according to the company.

Air BP (Stand 1158) claims to fuel around 6,000 flights operated by domestic and international airlines, the military, business and private aircraft owners every day at more than 800 locations in over 50 countries.

The company took over management of operations at the Dubai Airport Joint Industry Fuel Farm (Jiff) on July 1. Parent company BP and its partners recently spent $23 million to upgrade and augment the storage facility at DXB and increase suppliesat Sharjah Airport.

In addition to several other Dubai-based international carriers, Air BP serves Emirates and flydubai at DXB, as well as seven other locations in the UAE and a total of 21 locations in the region.

“With one of the largest jet-fuel demands in the world, DXB is an important location for Air BP. It is also the busiest airport in the world for international passenger traffic; this year to date, it has handled over 66 million passengers,” the company said.

Air BP also has a regional presence through joint ventures in Bahrain, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Egypt, Tunisia and Lebanon.

[la forge] 12/11/2017 07:44

BP Sends in Big Guns as Majors Jostle for Abu Dhabi Oil Riches
By Rakteem Katakey
12 novembre 2017 à 06:00 UTC+1

Attendance numbers for conference may shed light on strategy
Adnoc in talks for offshore concession that expires in March

Bob Dudley. Photographer: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg

When BP Plc goes to Abu Dhabi this week, where big oil companies will be jostling for access to the Emirate’s offshore riches, the British behemoth won’t be leaving anything up to chance.

An all-star cast is slated to attend the annual Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition & Conference, including BP Chief Executive Officer Bob Dudley and Chief Financial Officer Brian Gilvary. The company is sending more speakers than any of the other majors -- almost twice as many as its nearest rival Total SA and seven times as many as Exxon Mobil Corp., according to the conference website.

BP’s attendance underscores the importance of the state, which is already the fifth-biggest contributor to the company’s global crude oil output and has been in “advanced discussions with potential partners” for an additional offshore oil concession. In December, BP cemented a seven-decade relationship by swapping about $2.2 billion of its own shares for a stake in one of the emirate’s largest onshore oil concessions.

Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. “is one of our very close, key strategic partners,” Gilvary said in a phone interview Oct. 31. “So you should assume that as one of our close strategic partners that we discuss many things with them.”

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[waldron] 11/11/2017 18:54

Why These 2 Big Oil Stocks Jumped in October
They surprised some investors by leaving their U.S.-based peers in the dust.
John Bromels
(TMFTruth2Power)
Nov 10, 2017 at 12:42PM
What happened

Shares of BP (NYSE:BP) and Total SA (NYSE:TOT) jumped in late October to finish the month up 5.8% and 4.1%, respectively. That handily beat the performance of their U.S.-based peers ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), which finished up just 1.7%, and Chevron (NYSE:CVX), which actually finished down 1.4%.

Luckily for investors, the reasons are pretty straightforward.
Bills explode from an oil drum as a smiling man holds his arms in the air.

In October, the stock market was kinder to oil majors from overseas than to their U.S. industry counterparts. Image source: Getty Images.
So what

Crude prices rose throughout the month. The spot price of Brent crude rose 7.6% for the month, while West Texas Intermediate crude spot prices were up 5.2%. A chart of BP's and Total's October performances plus the oil spot prices shows a pretty strong correlation:

BP Chart

BP data by YCharts

BP reported third-quarter earnings on Oct. 31 and pleased investors with the announcement it would begin share buybacks, while Total posted strong Q3 earnings on Oct. 27, so combined with improvements in oil prices, it's pretty obvious why their shares would move higher.

As for Exxon and Chevron, you can probably guess what happened: Both released earnings that concerned investors. For Chevron, lower sequential quarterly production spooked Wall Street, causing the stock to sharply tumble. Exxon also reported lower sequential quarterly production, but solid across-the-board performance from all three of its business units may have helped to prevent its stock from dropping like Chevron's.
Now what

Chevron's and Exxon's lackluster post-earnings stock performances make sense, to a point. With oil prices finally seeming to be on the rise, companies that are pumping out less oil should make less profit. However, that overlooks Exxon's improving fundamentals and exciting offshore discoveries in Guyana. It also perhaps underestimates Chevron's Permian Basin potential.

But for BP and Total, the market seems right to be bullish. Even after October's price gains, both companies yield excellent dividends (BP's yield is a best-in-class 5.9%, while Total's 4.9% is also excellent) and have shown they can keep costs in check while expanding production. If oil prices continue to cooperate -- and that's a big "if" -- investors should expect continued outstanding results from both companies.

[waldron] 11/11/2017 08:59

i see the silly boy must give the thumbs down

whatta waste of space he b p

enjoy your weekend

keep posting

its a great thread

[sarkasm] 10/11/2017 16:48

Why Grabbing A Piece Of BP Now Is A Good Move
Nov. 10, 2017 10:58 AM ET|
1 comment|
About: BP p.l.c. (BP)
Gary Bourgeault
Gary Bourgeault
Long only, research analyst, portfolio strategy, media
(4,537 followers)
Summary

Profits in the 3rd quarter double.

Highly likely to reach its 2020 target of 800,000 BOE a day.

Cost-cutting measures allow the company to generate a profit with oil at $50-$60 per barrel.

Dividend safe and will probably start to be increased.

source: CNBC

After it recent earnings report BP (BP) unsurprisingly enjoyed a nice boost in share price, as the market acknowledged it has turned the corner. Somewhat surprising is it has fallen back to levels prior to its earnings report, which investors should consider a buying opportunity.

I see BP starting on a long-term run where it'll perform as a growth and revenue stock over the next few years.

The company guided for production to climb sequentially, as it started its natural gas production at the Khazzan field in Oman. That's the 6th of 7 projects the company has launched in 2017.

Costs associated with covering CapEx and its dividend has dropped to $49 per barrel, so if the price of Brent Crude remains close to $60, we're going to see free cash flow increase quickly. Even it pulls back to around $55, the company will grow free cash flow, albeit it at a more modest level.

BP chief financial officer Brian Gilvary, said this to the Financial Times:

“We are back to a new normality. We’ve come through the oil price correction and we’ve got things back into balance earlier than planned.”
Outlook for oil price and BP's management of it

Gilvary noted that he thinks oil will remain in the $50-60 per barrel range, and the company has made plans based upon that scenario. He added that the strategy of BP includes the flexibility of lowering its break-even point to about $45 per barrel if market conditions warrant it.

For 2018, BP assumes the price of oil to be approximately $50-$55 per barrel.

“We’re in a much stronger position now to manage wherever the price decides to go next because we’ve done the heavy lifting of getting the cash [break-even point] back down,” added Gilvary.

As for the price of oil, a lot hinges upon the pace of growth in demand versus the length of time the production cut deal remains in place, and how strongly the participants adhere to the terms.

It appears shale production has slowed down for a time; although I wouldn't count out it increasing over the next couple of years. Rig counts aren't important as they used to be because of the significant increase in productivity among shale producers, so it's not as accurate as a metric as it used to be in that regard. The number or rigs that are operational could be lower than in the past, while producing significantly more oil.

Another factor on the stockpile side is DUC wells in reality are their own storage facilities, and they can quickly be completed and brought into production. So inventory levels in the U.S. also have to be measured differently than before the shale revolution.

When adding the key factors together, I do think oil can hold in the range of $50 to $60 per barrel, but as I've mentioned a number of times, the exit strategy associated with the production cuts remains an unknown. How that will be implemented without it disrupting the supply and the price of oil remains a mystery.

All that I can see is demand rising to high enough levels where it will need the supply from these countries to meet it. If that doesn't happen, there is no way an exit won't put downward pressure on oil prices.

How I see it at this time is the most likely outcome will be demand will rise, but not enough to fully offset the amount of oil returned to the market. The result will be some downward pressure on oil, but probably not to levels so devastating it would crush the oil industry as it did in the recent past.

For that reason, I think BP is well positioned to at least break-even under a mildly stressed oil price.

If shale oil surprises once again to the upside, it would produce a difficult environment to generate a sustainable profit for BP.

For now, it should be able to build up its cash in order to protect its dividend from being cut under almost any scenario that emerges.
BP's actions show it sees ongoing support for oil

The market liked BP's decision to renew its share repurchase program, suggesting it is confident it can continue to improve its balance sheet while growing the company. Again, it also points to the company believing the price of oil has found sustainable support going forward.

Among management in the sector, I have more confidence in the long term outlook of BP for oil demand than most others. The reason I do is because it refused to be politically correct in the sense of repeating the narrative of how disruptive renewables will be to the oil market.

It's not that they don't seeing it growing and increasing share, only that the time frame many see it happening in they disagree with. BP sees demand growing through about 2040 before leveling off. Most other companies think it's going to be a lot sooner than that.

I believe BP is correct. One example is the demand for SUVs in China, which is expected to climb to 150 million vehicles by 2025. Most of those will be powered by gasoline.

Another factor not being considered by some in the market is the growth of petroleum-based products. This is being looked at as a long-term growth market by the industry. Cars, trucks and SUVs aren't the only things driving oil demand.
Performance against the market

Depending on the metric being used, BP has underperformed and outperformed the market. On the outperformance side, it has beating the industry's 5.7 percent growth, with BP up 10 percent, according to Zacks. Its dividend also beats Zacks Oil International Integrated industry, which was 4.1 percent, with BP paying out 5.7 percent as of this writing.

If you measure BP's performance against the FTSE 100 over the last 5 years, it's results havn't been as impressive. During the last 5 years the FTSE is up 28 percent, while BP is only up 17 percent during that same period.

One positive for investors located in the UK is the pound has dropped in value against the U.S. dollar, which means they experience an increase in profits when measured in that way.

During that time BP's dividend probably didn't offset the difference in growth rates, but now I see it being in a strong position to outperform the FTSE going forward, while at minimum keeping its dividend yield in place, and if the price of oil cooperates, increasing it consistently in the years ahead.
Conclusion

I think BP has now turned the corner, and if the price of oil remains above $50, it'll start to provide shareholders with growth and income.

If it can reach its goal of increasing its output to 800,000 BOE a day by 2020, it's going to give the stock a strong boost; that will probably find support, especially if BP continues to lower its cost structure.

I don't think it has it cutting break even as a drop back position, but rather is something it'll continue to work to improve upon until it reaches $45 per barrel. Under that scenario, BP would be positioned nicely for long-term growth.

Add to this the waning costs associated with the Deepwater Horizon spill, and the outlook for BP is the best it's been for a long time.

The price of oil is outside the hands of BP's management, but if it continues to find support, the company will grow free cash flow. The only question left is at what pace that will happen.

That means we should expect an increase in its dividend over time while easily funding its debt load, while at the same time expanding projects that offer the company long term growth.

It's expected 2018 P/E of 18 is a little hefty, but I still think when considering the overall health and outlook of the company, it's well worth it. This is a good time to take a position in BP.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

[parvo] 10/11/2017 16:15

I hope we see 500 or below next week; a buying opportunity!

[hellscream] 10/11/2017 15:43

they always seem to take 30-40p off every dividend, never fails..

[optomistic] 10/11/2017 15:34

It looks like we are having two x/d days this qtr instead of just the one :-/

[waldron] 10/11/2017 13:28

BP's Dudley inaugurates Oman's Khazzan field
11/9/2017

LONDON -- The first phase of development of Oman’s giant Khazzan gas field was officially inaugurated by BP CEO Bob Dudley and Sayyid Haitham bin Tarik Al’Said, minister of heritage and culture for Oman.

The Phase One development started gas production in September 2017, ten years after the signing of BP’s production sharing contract with Oman and almost four years after the development was approved.

Speaking at the Khazzan field, Bob Dudley said: “It is an honor to be here in Oman on this momentous occasion. Although this marks just the beginning of operations for Khazzan, we have already been working towards this for ten years, building close relationships with Oman and our partners. I expect these will continue to grow and deepen."

“Visiting this huge project that we have together built here in just a few years, I can see why it has been described as ‘the city in the sand’. And this city will deliver benefits for Oman and BP for decades to come. With an estimated 10.5 Tcf of recoverable gas resources in place in Khazzan, this is very much just the start of the journey.”

Eng. Isam bin Saud Al Zidjali, CEO of Oman Oil Company, commented: “As an investment arm of the Sultanate in the energy sectors, we in Oman Oil are honored to be part of the Khazzan Project and help maximize the value of Oman’s natural resources. I am delighted by the fact that the project has contributed to the sustainable development of the nation on many fronts, including human capital development, new technology applications, and social responsibility, to name only a few.”

Phase One of the Khazzan development will include a total of 200 wells feeding into a two-train central processing facility. At peak, the Phase One development involved a workforce of around 13,500. Phase One production is expected to plateau at 1 Bcfgd.

When the second phase of development of the Khazzan field, known as Ghazeer, is fully onstream total production is expected rise to 1.5 Bcfgd. In total, approximately 300 wells are expected to be drilled over the estimated lifetime of these two phases of development of the Khazzan field.

[waldron] 09/11/2017 17:55

OIL BE BACK

[veryniceperson] 09/11/2017 16:29

Same here parvo, got some funds waiting in the wings.. 490 to 500 is the new trading range imo.

[veryniceperson] 09/11/2017 16:26

Sorry guys, never realised it was xd day. Thanks for putting me right.

[parvo] 09/11/2017 16:26

Sicker - I agree; I want this down to 490-500 to buy back in

[sicker] 09/11/2017 16:21

Assuming the dividend will be between 7 and 8 pence it's not down much :-)

[ariane] 09/11/2017 16:01

EGYPT INDEPENDENT

Business
BP to commence gas production in Atoll field by end of 2017
Al-Masry Al-Youm
November 9, 2017
1:53 pm
Minister Of Petroleum Tarek El Molla inspected the first stage of the Atoll gas field developed by the British Petroleum company (BP) off the Mediterranean coast in Damietta on Wednesday.
El Molla said that the gas field is one of the recent important discoveries in Egypt’s oil sector after the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas signed an agreement of principles with BP in November 2015 to accelerate its production.
The Minister held a meeting with the regional director of BP in North Africa, Hesham Mekawi, and officials at the Ministry of Petroleum and the Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company (EGAS) to follow up on the progress of the field’s development, whose total investment amounts to $ 3.8 billion.
On his part, chairman of the Pharaonic Petroleum Company Hassan Abbadi said that the gas production in the field will commence at the end of this year, ahead of the ministry’s deadline in 2018,
Atoll, an eastern Nile Delta discovery BP made in November 2017, will bring 250 million cubic feet of oil per day. It proves what BP has believed for many years — that the Nile Delta is a world-class gas basin.
Edited translation from al-Masry al-Youm

[parvo] 09/11/2017 15:56

Profit taking and ex div.

[veryniceperson] 09/11/2017 15:51

Tad under $64.00 a barrel, must be some profit taking.

[veryniceperson] 08/11/2017 16:48

Like cars, easy targets

[hellscream] 08/11/2017 16:41

shame the uk is getting desperate for cash, gonna be another attack on our dividends...

[maywillow] 08/11/2017 15:34

OPEC to Disappoint Oil Bulls at November Meeting, Citigroup Says
By Grant Smith
8 novembre 2017 à 12:37 UTC+1

Decision to extend output curbs through 2018 unlikely: Morse
Citigroup says higher oil prices to spur U.S. shale drilling

OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo speaks in Vienna about rebalancing of the global oil market.

Oil bulls banking that OPEC and its allies will later this month agree to extend supply cuts for all of 2018 are set to be disappointed, Citigroup Inc. says.

Hedge funds are laying record bets that Brent crude futures will rise, exchange data show, amid expectations that OPEC and Russia will decide to prolong supply curbs when they meet in Vienna on Nov. 30. Markets are pricing in an extension to the end of next year, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

“There is an exuberance in the market about there being a done deal to extend through the end of 2018 and I think there’s likely to be disappointment in that come Nov. 30,” Ed Morse, head of commodities research at Citigroup, said by phone from New York. “Our base case is that we do not get a full-year extension on Nov. 30.”

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia have been leading a 24-nation coalition of oil producers this year in an historic pact to clear a global supply glut by reducing output. The strategy is finally paying off, with about half the surplus in inventories gone and oil prices trading at the highest in two years.

The accord is due to expire at the end of March. Expectations grew that the producers will choose to extend the measures throughout 2018 after Russian President Vladimir Putin signaled in early October the country would be open to such a move.
Sequenced Decisions

Citigroup’s Morse expects that, rather than a full-year extension, OPEC will either prolong the curbs until the end of the second quarter, or postpone taking a decision until January or February.

Russian officials and companies, eager to press on with expanding production capacity, have shown resistance to an extension. Lukoil PJSC Chief Executive Officer Vagit Alekperov said on Oct. 10 that the deal should end if oil prices reach $60 a barrel, while Rosneft PJSC boss Igor Sechin has warned that U.S. shale output is undermining their efforts.

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Nov. 2 that producers won’t necessarily decide at this month’s meeting because the outlook for the market remains unclear.

“There’s a short-term possibility of a selloff,” Citigroup’s Morse said.

Morse predicts the producers will ultimately maintain their cutbacks throughout 2018, though in a sequence of decisions rather than a commitment made this month.
Shale Surge

Bulls are still in for a let-down though, if they expect OPEC’s actions will significantly tighten global markets next year, he said. With oil prices having recovered to almost $60 a barrel in New York, U.S. shale output will surge again after losing momentum recently. There has been “an incredible amount of hedging activity by U.S. producers” for 2018 and 2019 that allows them to resume drilling, Morse said.

“It’s a fragile balance,” he said. “The higher the price goes in the short run the more difficult it will be to return the oil taken off the market.”

North American shale output will soar to 7.5 million barrels a day in 2021 as OPEC’s output cuts triggered a crude-price recovery that helped U.S. drillers, the group said in its World Oil Outlook report on Tuesday. That’s 56 percent higher than it forecast a year ago.

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[malcontent] 08/11/2017 15:19

long term holder - re-investing dividends- here - will add if we break and hold above 530p as a trading buy- this is a stock that you can accummulate at lower levels and sleep tight knowing that the divi rewards you for your patience

[parvo] 08/11/2017 15:15

vnp - thanks for your thoughts!