Bovis Homes Share Discussion Threads

[jdb2005] 11/11/2015 09:33

Added more at 962

[jdb2005] 11/11/2015 09:19

Bought some more BVS this morning at 964.5 - good results from BDEV this morning but it has fallen back now. Most Builders are worthwhile investment as UK wages up 3% & not enough new houses to satisfy demand.

Seems like BOE has put any rate rise on hold until 2016.

[discodave4] 10/11/2015 09:21

RDW +28% average selling price - not bad!.DD

[dr_smith] 10/11/2015 09:19

BLX - No that's not a co. I overslept and missed my chance to top up on builders this a.m. I must have tipped the MM's off last night with my post ;-)

[jdb2005] 10/11/2015 08:12

More important is the fact that all Builders on my watchlist are in positive territory. BVS has reached 988 - not long before we are 1000+

[gp1948] 09/11/2015 22:30

I posted a link to the data I quoted in my previous post, but it was auto-removed

[discodave4] 09/11/2015 21:03

GpThey issued recommendations for other builders on Friday 6th, they did the same with BDEV (Overweight 6th to Buy today). Likewise, 6th RDW Overweight target 568 and today Hold 481.Basically they havn't got a clue!.DD

[gp1948] 09/11/2015 20:32

Hi DD,
I've just seen this same information on Digital Look and I can't help but think that their website has made a mistake with this information.
Deutsche Bank is the house broker for BVS and I can't imagine they would give any negative sort of rating to the stock.
GP

[discodave4] 09/11/2015 20:13

Aren't brokers something else :Deutsche Nov 6th BVS Underweight 1153.6Deutsche Nov 9th BVS BuyClearly the weekend something fundamental must have changed!!.DD

[dr_smith] 09/11/2015 18:15

Cheers Jdb, missed that one.
House builders generally down today whilst FTSE still neutral earlier, Monday blues I guess. I may top up with 1 or 2 other house builders in next day or so whilst low, despite being over threshold for good sector spread.
I'm happy with Mr Carney, he has been open with policy and intentions, but ability to predict the future (UK and ROW) is a tad difficult....IMO :-)

[jdb2005] 09/11/2015 17:47

DR S - RNS shows Blackrock has sold shares - now below 5% holding.

Now we should have a fair wind - assuming that US markets don't frighten off investors in UK.

[dr_smith] 06/11/2015 16:19

Jdb. Following our natter in posts 766/7 it seems the illogical link between Fed rate and UK housing is now hitting us, though later than expected with US jobs data shifting US fed rate change date closer.
And, that is despite utterances of BOE rate being later than envisaged.
Crazy!

[dr_smith] 06/11/2015 12:33

Hi Roddiemac, Yes, slightly crossed wires, I believe we are on same page.
I usually go with 'make hay whilst sun shine, so builders could/should bump up output, but also aware:
- Shortage of (skilled) labour, so would have to be in house trained up.
- Would presumably need outlay in capital equipment diggers etc.
- Materials suppliers can't cope with sudden market changes.
- Boom would mean higher replacement land bank cost
I haven't been in this sector in a downturn of demand (as opposed to market price). So whilst that is highly unlikely for 10+ years, I must respect the slower organic increase for sustainablity.
To capitalise in shorter term would likely bump up price of labour/land/materials and fininace. After the boom was over, what do you do with the trained up staff no longer in demand?
Therefore happy for slow and steady approach whilst wearing an investor hat.

Or.. maybe there is a middle ground and some room to bump up output to some extent, though it would not be enough to reduce market shortfall in supply..

On factory built houses: Ive seen it on telly 15+ years ago (Germany/Sweden) and we've had prefabs in 1940's 1950's, but agree doesn't seem likely any time soon, even though conditions (demand and interst rates) are ideal for market newcomer.

IMO :-)

[roddiemac2] 06/11/2015 11:56

I was not suggesting it is the responsibility of builders to satisfy demand for an expanding population. I am , however, suggesting that there is a huge potential market for builders to exploit medium to long term, if they radically alter the way they are operating. Restricted supply and ever rising prices must mean that fewer and fewer people will be able to afford to buy.

"Help to buy schemes have no effect on the shortage of houses"---quite so , but they do prop up prices , which may well be the reason for their implementation. Government is interfering in the wrong way.

I agree with your last paragraph. Perhaps we will live to see some enterprising outfit revolutionise house building for the masses. Don`t hold your breath.

[dr_smith] 06/11/2015 11:32

It is not the responsibility of house builders to satisfy demand from an expanding population. It is a free economy and new builders, be they big corporations or small co-ops of privateers are not prevented from coming into the sector.
Gov't can take measures to control and/or influence our ever-expanding population, then supply would not be so exacerbated.
Help to buy scheme has no effect on the shortage of houses.

"Government needs to promote the building of truly affordable energy efficient housing "
Conceivably kit or factory built homes can play a big role.
Similar to car manufacture, robots mass producing tailorable houses, with latest hi-tec materials/energy saving etc, and economies of scale. They would need a big market to justify capital outlay, but, as it happens, they have just that.
Coupled with re-use of brownfield sites and more efficent use of the land we hav and the, under used delapidated trading estates can become plots for sale to Joe public.
Getting vertigo now standing on this soap box ;-)
IMO. :-)

[roddiemac2] 06/11/2015 10:55

The rigged deck that the property market has increasingly become is ignoring the huge pent up " latent " demand for "affordable" housing. This demand is not going to be satisfied until builders significantly increase their output . Hitherto, it has paid them not to do so. They have benefited by restricting supply, which ,in this property obsessed society, leads to prices being far too high in relation to average earnings. This needs to change. A building boom could be arguably fuelled by more affordable prices; builders would then benefit from economies of scale, and profit accordingly. Lower prices should not necessarily mean lower profits .Government needs to promote the building of truly affordable energy efficient housing , and stop getting first time buyers into debt at the wrong price, thereby propping up prices.

High house prices mean that most people have little or no disposable income after paying for and maintaining the roof over their head: not good in a consumer society like the UK

[dr_smith] 05/11/2015 17:36

Jdb, No paid it off around 15 years ago. Just heard my foundation is cancelled for tomorrow. It is so wet even prospect of rate rise is dampened:


As a skier I'm happy with snow, but mountains are scarce down here in (not) sunny dorset.

[jdb2005] 05/11/2015 17:05

You still got a mortgage DR S - thought you would have cleared it by now!!

Better days ahead so work on foundation can be completed before the snow & frosts.

[dr_smith] 05/11/2015 12:59

Gp, Folio increase on day from .5% up to .75%, portfolio biased towards builders.PFC down 6% at other end of scale.

RM, yes no big shakes. I can recall a time when my mortgage payment was changed every couple of months!

[roddiemac2] 05/11/2015 12:35

If interest rates move , it will be by tiny increments , therefore more psychological than meaningful. Who cares ?

[dr_smith] 05/11/2015 12:16

B.hell Jdb.
I take predictions with a pinch of salt, but my portfolio has just shot up 50% on the day at turn of 12.00
Can you let me know if my garage extension foundations will be done tomorrow in view of prolonged rain?

[jdb2005] 05/11/2015 11:12

Speaking to 2 brokers this morning - consensus is 25-30% chance of BOE raising bank rate.

Should see movement after 12 noon announcement.