Blue Prism Share Discussion Threads

[mccore] 04/5/2021 12:26

If there's sequential growth between H1 and H2 though, it doesn't need to hit £90m in H1 to reach £184m ($250m) for the full year.

H1 could be £84m (20% growth) and H2 could be £100m (20% growth) = $255m for the year

[danschmeidler] 04/5/2021 12:04

6x revenue is a bargain when you have $250 USD Annually. even 8x earnings is cheap in this market. it would be about 19 sterling for the stock if it managed $250 million USD annual sales and traded at 10x earnings. So it could go to 19 sterling if it hit that $90 million sterling or $125 million USD and market upped it to 10x revenue.

[12toes] 04/5/2021 12:02

Mccore says 'Being on a most shorted list can be a good thing though?'BWAHAHAHA You really couldn't make it up BWAHAHAHA

[danschmeidler] 04/5/2021 11:57

i am saying from an already discounted perspective. Hard to say if £90m sales (28% growth) = £16 share price or closer to 19 - 20 sterling. But at 19-20 sterling you are not cheap at that price level. your cheap at 16 not at 20.

[danschmeidler] 04/5/2021 11:53

£72m sales (2% growth) < £9 share price
£78m sales (11% growth) = £10 share price
£84m sales (20% growth) = £13 share price
£90m sales (28% growth) = £16 share price

as bargain prices

[mccore] 04/5/2021 11:40

Agreed Danschmeidler. Without a US listing, this is what I would expect in the following H1 sales scenarios:

£72m sales (2% growth) = £9 share price
£78m sales (11% growth) = £12 share price
£84m sales (20% growth) = £15 share price
£90m sales (28% growth) = £18 share price

[danschmeidler] 04/5/2021 11:27

Listing in the US would not matter if they report 72 million sterling in about 6 weeks. So why the rush. Let's see if they even survive the next 6 weeks. And if that number does come in at 72 million sterling you probably lucky to even get 9 sterling.

[mccore] 04/5/2021 11:20

"WHAAAAAT ?? - that is the most stupid thing I’ve heard"

LOL - Looks like you still have a lot to learn!

[12toes] 04/5/2021 11:14

'Being on a most shorted list can be a good thing though'WHAAAAAT ?? - that is the most stupid thing I've heard BWAHAHAHA

[mccore] 04/5/2021 11:00

it definitely wouldn't be a GME, there are plenty of SaaS software stocks that are far less volatile than the robinhood casino stocks.
Blue Prism would re-rate if listed in the US, probably to something like a 15x TTM sales multiple which would price it at about £21.

[danschmeidler] 04/5/2021 10:52

looks like block of shares being day traded here. if this goes to the US markets and liquidity opens up as far as margin accounts, i am sure a few hedge funds will step in and go long short here. not that it's not happening now. it would just be more extenuated and add to volatility. Why would you want that? It would be like a GME or FCEL or pretty much any other US listed equity. I mean are these things even investable?

[dg1966] 04/5/2021 10:35

Well now, that impressed the markets !!!!! dohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

BoD wake up no one knows who you are !

PATH share price comes down and PRSM just follows because PRSM is no longer a leader but, just a fallen follower .

PATH goes up on launch and PRSM goes down as exposed as the Norther UK Fat Cat ASTON MARTIN polishing has bean's

[dg1966] 04/5/2021 10:33

Well now, that impressed the markets !!!!! dohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

BoD wake up no one knows who you are !

PATH share price comes down and PRSM just follows because PRSM is no longer a leader but, just a fallen follower .

PATH goes up on launch and PRSM goes down as exposed as the Norther UK Fat Cat ASTON MARTIN polishing has beens

[mccore] 04/5/2021 10:24

Yep, I would be shocked (in a bad way!) if they report £72 million. I'm expecting mid £80's. With that kind of revenue (20% growth) and their high gross profit margin (84%), the share price should be on the move higher.

[danschmeidler] 04/5/2021 10:20

At 90 million sterling the market will feel better about the stock and it should regain its footing. But that swing of 18 million can be make or break so market is pricing all that in as far as how insignificant and bottom of the barrel this small cap is. It’s an interesting story but odds stacked against them unless they can deliver. Market cam beat this one down below 9 sterling if they only report 72 million sterling which is not too far from 84 million just to look like you got a chance to make it.

[danschmeidler] 04/5/2021 10:13

I was using 1.3 for exchange. At 1.39, the low end 72 million sterling being a low range that the stock could possibly trade down to. That’s translated 100 million uSD. I don’t think the market is going to like $100 million USD or $72 million sterling.

[mccore] 04/5/2021 09:43

I think your USD/GBP conversion might be off Danschmeidler?
$117 million USD is £84 million sterling at current rates (0.72/1.39)?

So you're looking for £169 million ($183m) for the year or £84 million pounds for H1.

This represents about 20% growth ... at a price-to-sales multiple of 8 and a gross profit margin of 84.3% would be very cheap at current prices (£11.77 now). It's highly likely to be an acquisition target at this level also.

[danschmeidler] 04/5/2021 09:07

Interim 6 months results are coming out around the third or fourth week of June. Plenty of time for this stock to trade down to 9 Sterling and then just keep crashing if confirmed. I think that looks like the most likely scenario. If earnings come in at $77 million sterling and it is June 24 and you are looking at another 6 months ahead before the next earnings. I think you better bail at even at 9 sterling because you would be lucky to sell your shares at 9 sterling if they report $77 million sterling. So you are probably going to see this stock trade down to 9 sterling prior to earnings in about 6 weeks. With 2020 annual sales of $183 million USD or 140 million sterling, the markets would not be content with $100 million, you need at least to hit that $235 million or $117 million USD or 90 million Sterling for 6 months. Ideally you would want to see that 96 million sterling or $124 million USD. But is that really in the cards now with all that competition and being squeezed by the bigger players while at the same time the whole market segment such as Pegasystems, ServiceNow, Salesforce, and then the biggest players encroaching into the space software architecture applications. Coding or not coding, Blue Prism would still have to re-invent itself every day just to keep up with the competition. An interesting story to follow here since it's the cheapest one probably in that field even though Pegasystems is pretty cheap as well. Blue Prism at 9 sterling would be really a bargain at this point. Plus they might come in at $91 million in which case 9 sterling is a really good bargain. But I think $96 million sterlin is just ridiculous out of the top range even.

[mccore] 04/5/2021 09:06

Being on a most shorted list can be a good thing though - Blue Prism sentiment must be at an all time low currently, commentary here is mostly negative too.

[12toes] 04/5/2021 07:59

Blue Prism is on ADVFNs most shorted list 3.3% OUCH

[mccore] 03/5/2021 22:43

We'll probably hear more about a US listing at results time if the sales numbers are disappointing!

[mccore] 03/5/2021 22:38

I agree with your range analysis Danschmeidler, and yep - it's all about the next set of results now. Any idea when we can expect these to be released?

[danschmeidler] 03/5/2021 19:47

So in GBP Sterling terms anything at or below 77 million for the 6 months would be disastrous and crash the stock to 9 sterling or bellow. Anything between 77 million to 88 million GBP Sterling for 6 months would be barely making it and probably be supported by some guidance that will only further add volatility. Anything at 90 or 91 million Sterling GBP for 6 months of sales would be satisfactory and 96 million in sales would probably be the top range of any optimistic forecast. So $20 million Sterling are the range for breaking it or making it.