Blackbird Share Discussion Threads

[nick2412] 15/2/2024 02:22

Some fair points and it's all about opinions. My reply in caps just as my day starts here on the other (sunny) side of the globe!

NickB15 Feb '24 - 01:46 - 12687 of 12688
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So if the take out price was say 300p what price should it be the day before?

IF AN AGREED PRICE WAS 300P (£1 BILLION PLUS) THEN THERE WOULD BE SOME RISE ABOVE A £26M MARKET CAP AND BIRD WOULD ALREADY HAVE HAD TO ANNOUNCE THEY WERE IN TALKS AND THE SHARE PRICE WOULD THEN START TO REFLECT ACCORDINGLY.

And how would you explain it trading above say 14p? +100% from here? eg it was trading at 100p but no one knew why?

EVERYONE WOULD KNOW WHY AS BIRD WOULD BE REQUIRED TO EXPLAIN BY AIM REGULATORS AND THEY COULDN'T SAY "WE KNOW NO REASON FOR THE SHARE PRICE INCREASE" WITH AN ARTIFICIALLY DEPRESSED PRICE IN THIS INSTANCE IF YOUR THEORY IS CORRECT. THAT DOESN'T MEAN BIRD WON'T HAVE DEVELOPED THE PLATFORM WITHOUT HAVING ONE EYE ON A FUTURE ACQUISITION. FORMAL OR SEMI-FORMAL DISCUSSIONS ? - UNLIKELY IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY MARKET GUIDANCE ON THIS.

Wouldn't that be a false market?

YES, SEE ABOVE

If Big tech has spent the last few years in conversations with us (my belief) why would they wait months or years after Blackbird 10 is released before making a move?

EQUALLY, WHY NOT NOW, WHY NOT TWO YEARS AGO WITH PART OF THE DEAL FOR SS AND CO. TO INTEGRATE THE TECH WITH ADOBE. YOUR POINT OF WHY WOULD ADOBE RISK ANOTHER PARTY BUYING. YOU MIGHT MENTION EXCLUSIVITY/NDA'S ETC BUT IF BIRD WERE WOKING WITH ADOBE NOW THEY WOULD HAVE TO ANNOUNCE AS SUCH EVEN IF THEY DIDN'T SPECIFY THE NAME.

Why do you think big tech doesn't have the skills to be able to asses our technology Blackbird 10 and our video editing products enterprise and elevate +player?

SEE ABOVE. WHY NOT NOW OR SIX MONTHS AGO. BIG COMPANIES SIMPLY DON'T RUSH, IT'S JUST A CULTURAL THING WITH THE MEGA COMPANIES AND THE SPEED/STAGE THEY OPERATE.

Why do you think only subscriber numbers tell a tech company we have a good product worth buying?

NOT SOMETHING I SAID IN MY POST AT ALL. AFTER ALL, ADOBE ACQUIRED FRAME.IO FOR ITS TECH AT $1.275B WITH RELATIVELY MEAGRE REVENUES AND AN UNHEARD OF 60 X $21m REVENUES MULTIPLE.

Why would a big tech company risk another big tech company make a first move? Risky

AGREED BUT AGAIN WHY NOT NOW OR SIX MONTHS AGO ON THE BASIS OF THAT LOGIC. BIRD'S INTENT HAS BEEN ANNOUNCED SINCE THE FUNDING TWO YEARS AGO. ANYWAY WE WILL FIND OUT SOON. MY GUESS IS AN ACQUISITION BY SOME PARTY, NOT NECESSARILY ADOBE, SOMETIME IN 2O24. THAT'S NOT BECAUSE OF ANY USER NUMBERS NEEDED TO PROVE BIRD'S TECH BUT BECAUSE OF THE PACE BIG COMPANIES OPERATE. THEY ARE FAR FROM NIMBLE. IF TALKS HAVE BEEN ONGOING FOR AS LONG AS YOU PERCEIVE THEY WOULD HAVE HAD TO ANNOUNCE AS SUCH. FALSE MARKETS WORK BOTH WAYS: ARTIFICIALLY INFLATED OR ARTIFICALLY (IN THIS INSTANCE IF YOUR THEORY IS CORRECT) DEFLATED.

[nick2412] 15/2/2024 02:01

I don't really get the view that if Adobe doesn't buy then Blackbird is restricted and destined to embark on a long-term Canva-style route.

As mentioned:- "5) If Adobe doesn't buy elevate/Blackbird, does that mean that a takeover will never happen?

Far from it. It probably increases the prospects of a takeover. If Adobe creates a competitive product then the likes of Google, Microsoft, Canva and other Adobe competitors are going to need something immediately that will compete. Not all will have embarked on finding a solution. Also, the Blackbird tach and patents make it unlikely they will produce anything as good anytime soon."

[nickb] 15/2/2024 01:46

So if the take out price was say 300p what price should it be the day before?

And how would you explain it trading above say 14p? +100% from here? eg it was trading at 100p but no one knew why?

Wouldn't that be a false market?

If Big tech has spent the last few years in conversations with us (my belief) why would they wait months or years after Blackbird 10 is released before making a move?

Why do you think big tech doesn't have the skills to be able to asses our technology Blackbird 10 and our video editing products enterprise and elevate +player?

Why do you think only subscriber numbers tell a tech company we have a good product worth buying?

Why would a big tech company risk another big tech company make a first move? Risky


Comes down to a big tech company asking these questions.

Is It Disruptive Technology?

Have we built a relationship?

Is it needed now?

Do we want it?

Can we build it ourselves? (question must have already been answered due to engineering lead times of 1-3 years to build what we now have, if they even could and that it would work!


No interest to me means they are going their own way.

And we continue our independent way with 2 people in the marketing dept and slowly building and hope we can raise more money, long term 3-5 years we may have have built a Canva of Video editing and worth a lot, not easy though and it will need hundreds if not thousands of extra employees are you guys are for that journey? Are the Directors?

Simple.
We are coming to an inflexion point, what are we?

Business startup with all the problems that expansion brings.

or highly developed Ip company that will do big licence deals or for exclusivity get acquired.

interesting times and importantly ( as not insiders), speculative times.

[nick2412] 15/2/2024 00:28

A few points, all in my view.

1) Would Adobe step in immediately because regulators give them a limited acquisition window before elevate gains traction?

Probably not just for this reason alone. I think the regulators will look at market share rather than form a view on disruptive tech potentially creating a monopoly. So in this regard Adobe do have a bit of time. Figma was a $20b company with $600m in revenues.

2) Would Adobe wait and see what the elevate/player platform (currently under wraps)looks like?

I take the point that they will already know a lot, but the phrase elephants don't gallop, usually applied to big company share prices, probably applies to acquisition decisions as well.

3) Would Adobe step in early (within 6 months of launch) because of Blackbird's superior IP/technology and, if they don't, does it mean they are developing their own competitive offering?

Quite probably yes.

4) Would Adobe acquire Blackbird if they have their own offering to stop competitors from getting their hands on it?

Unlikely in my view unless it could be integrated and improve anything they are planning themselves.

5) If Adobe doesn't buy elevate/Blackbird, does that mean that a takeover will never happen?

Far from it. It probably increases the prospects of a takeover. If Adobe creates a competitive product then the likes of Google, Microsoft, Canva and other Adobe competitors are going to need something immediately that will compete. Not all will have embarked on finding a solution. Also, the Blackbird tach and patents make it unlikely they will produce anything as good anytime soon.

6) Could BIRD sit on potential acquisition or exclusive licensing due diligence developments if they are aware of it?

If Blackbird were aware of any formally declared intentions of Adobe doing due diligence (hence the absence of visible elevate marketing etc) to potentially acquire they would have to announce and perhaps even suspend trading pending the outcome. The same would almost certainly apply to exclusive licensing negotiations.

7) Does the current share price discount a pre-launch or early post-lauch takeover?

I guess the answer to that is to look at any takeover and if you took almost all of them there is usually a significant rise before any formally announced declaration. So much for the regulators and insider dealing rules.

8) Does the current share price/market cap influence the potential acquisition price?

Not to any great extent here.

The share price is usually relevant to a takeover price and, in theory, the likes of Adobe could make a relatively low bid and a lot of retail investors would accept.

Almost certainly that won't happen here. The likes of Adobe would need to contact the main shareholders (Im, SS, PM) and there would need to be a recommended acceptance price by the board. That would almost inevitably achieve a 90% plus acceptance. The question then becomes what figure would the board want. When talking about valuations IM answered the question by referencing Frame's acquisition cost - $1.4b and 50 times revenues. That sets the benchmark.


9) Would the large players accept a shared licensing route along the lines of the model EVS have embarked?

I can't see that happening and I think one large company will make an outright bid but just not pre-launch or immediately post-launch. Nick's point that Adobe, if they don't have a competitive pipeline editor, compels them to move sharply is very valid though. Interesting times!

[nickb] 14/2/2024 21:08

If It was any good we would be at 14p not 7p on AIM, a whopping 100% premium.


Is that how it works?

[sideshowbull] 14/2/2024 20:53

Our thread curently has 15 upticks on ADVFN can we get some more - only if you agree with the thread though, don't want fake votes

BIRDISTHEWORD

#notgetingmybird

#BWTFDIK

[ortegaworm] 14/2/2024 20:51

You simply cannot ignore this USP it is going to be revolutionary. Frame Accurate Clips in forward and reverse. Ooooo gives me goosebumps. Grabbing that perfect High Quality Action Shot in seconds. Limited fiddling just beautiful aesthetics and simplicity. Creators publishing high-quality content quicker than ever before. None subscribers asking how you are growing so quick. Who does your editing?Well, they say we all edit through multi collaboration. You not heard of the platform? Anyone who is anyone all now about Elevate. Go check them out. I even do most of my editing onsite just sort myself out with a Hot-spot and the team get to work with me at the same time. Mo and Summit have seen. They have envisaged what this is gonna become.

[nickb] 14/2/2024 20:49

Chris

They all know about us and all go back a long long way in time.


Orte
Yes we just have to get on and build a business that's the default situation and what the AIM market is pricing but with little conviction of success at the moment.

[chriscallen] 14/2/2024 20:43

BIRD has links with the Big Players. So, if AWS, MSFT and Google all adopted elevate.io as their software of choice for enabling the creator economy what would that do to BIRDs SP? Would SSBs £37 be vindicated?

[ortegaworm] 14/2/2024 20:38

If we are not sold, this is where I see us.1. The product is created and prepared for market. (Last 20 Years) Part Innovation/Part Luck, but we are here. It's a timing thing.2. A very small percentage of innovators are involved they are testing and providing feedback (where we are currently) Excitement Builds. Small Increase in share price. Not far from Launch.3. In come the visionaries (the first adopters), the ones that queue up overnight for the latest iphones. 13-15% of the market. (Nice Increase in Share Price) A buzz has been created. (Chunk of budget spent we are out there but, its time to raise some money. (Timeline Mar-Apr) (Raise in May/June)4. Money raised and on with the marketing. In come the Pragmatists. (Early adopters 30-35%) the product is gaining traction. It is out there momentum is happening. (Tasty Increase in the share price) Timeline July 24-Apr 255. Now the conservatives arrive (Late majority) 30-35% its time for them to catch up and get involved late to the party but they are here (Share Price hitting the heights and SSB has his Green thing on order)

[nickb] 14/2/2024 20:00

Pat

I strongly see your point, however and I use Adobe as an example, a $1 Billion price is not a cost but an investment, there shareholders require them to make technology bets that is there job, and if you know the history of Adobe you will see that making technology bets at key times has made Adobe what it is today without those bets they couldn't build a growing business that Wall Street can value.

Worth noting the present very senior execs at Adobe are in their positions because they had been acquired.

Big Tech don't buy businesses they acquire tech.

Would you as CEO of a big tech company under incredible pressure to hit a trillion $ market cap acquire a disruptive technology that disrupts a multi $ billion market? Or would you play ultra safe and wait a few years to see how things went? Or perhaps have a go developing in house?

Not doing so may be even worse and can result in a class action law suit if we became successful in Cloud video editing and they say they can compete which is what they face with Figma, and they couldn't complete the acq because of the regulators oh and it cost them a $1 Billion in break up fees.
So plenty of risk for big companies not investing.
(Adobe used as an example only)

Class action ref

hxxps://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/11/16/2782175/0/en/Class-Action-Lawsuit-Filed-Against-Adobe-Inc-ADBE-on-Behalf-of-Investors-Nationally-Ranked-Investors-Rights-Firm-Holzer-Holzer-LLC-Encourages-Investors-With-Significant-Losses-to-C.html

[jamesjmb] 14/2/2024 19:25

Multi-product company. Too much going on for nothing to happen. Interesting times.

[salmon9] 14/2/2024 19:13

The silence surrounding what is currently going on with regard to the launch of elevate.io, and the seemingly ground breaking technological breakthrough that it is likely to represent, clearly promotes speculation amongst us about what will happen in the near future.
If it is indeed truly ground breaking, how can it not tempt a big player to attempt acquisition?
Forget the current share value. A big tech company would surely simply decide what it is worth to them. There would then be a negotiation around their perceived value of the amazing tech and the current irrelevant share price.
I come back to my analogy of a company that patents how to convert lead into gold, but hasn't yet put into place the manufacturing process.
The current share price of such a company which had no sales but only patents, would not limit the reasoned acquisition price.

[pat_cash] 14/2/2024 18:14

Respectfully, I think there's quite a bit of opinion in there and I think it's more tricky to acquire a tiny market cap public company for a huge amount of money, than it seems (particularly with regard to the opinion of the acquirer's shareholders and the reputational risk to the directors) - even if it ultimately makes commercial sense. But that's OK - we can agree to disagree and see where we are in a few weeks time 👍 It could happen though, and I'd love it.

[nickb] 14/2/2024 18:07

‘Once we start proving success in the form of subs and revenue, the share price will rise.’

Yes correct but that’s as an independent company running a business.


Big tech are not interested in our subscribers they have them already!

And as I say they don’t have 3 years to wait while we grow

[nickb] 14/2/2024 18:04

‘no reason an acquisition can't happen 3-6 months down the line, or later.’

Actually there is as IF we succeed it becomes more difficult for big tech to acquire us particularly Adobe as they would be buying a fast growing video editing competitor.

Wait 3 months? Why what does that actually achieve?

Again in terms of Adobe specifically it’s a terrible optic for them if it s launched by someone else first

No they have to bring it to market under there brand name after making a smart technology bet.


So no advantage to wait

Sure other companies might but this technology is needed yesterday and any delays are actually serious and expensive in a multi billion dollar industry.

I also suspect it’s been a multi year courtship of conversations so why wait.


Or our tech is not disruptive which is what punters on AIM say

Who gets the final say on valuation?

AIM investors / traders
Or big tech Industry CEO’s with a roadmap.


We shall see.

[pat_cash] 14/2/2024 17:54

Yes, a very serious offence - it still exists though.

I think most shareholders believe in the tech, otherwise they probably wouldn't hold it.

I think it'll be a great success and an acquisition down the line is likely!

Once we start proving success in the form of subs and revenue, the share price will rise.

[nickb] 14/2/2024 17:49

Pat

Currently there is an ex Adobe executive sitting in a US jail for insider trading.

It’s a very serious offence.

It’s actually possible Blackbird Directors don’t know ‘for certain’ as this decision would be in a very tight Big US tech boardroom and they are not buying a business.
They can also do a tremendous amount of work as a licensing deal and switch to acquisition very late.

To make an offer is not a Blackbird decision


The current share price reflects failure
Last fund raising was 28p and we hit a high of 40p

Reality is VERY few people believe in this technology including many of the shareholders.

What they might believe is we might be able to build a business over the next few years and the share price will show that.

All imho

[pat_cash] 14/2/2024 17:24

I think John's point is that at 7p we're very unlikely to get an acquisition at e.g. 300p - unprecedented. The above is a steep rise over time, so is different.

As various people have suggested, and Nick2412 suggests above, if an acquisition were about to happen, given the dozens of people involved, including in due diligence etc, you would almost certainly get some kind of leakage of info (as much as the acquirer and acquiree would love there to be no insider trading, they don't have complete control of info), and that would have been seen in our incredibly sensitive share price.

Also, every indicator points to us launching. No indicators point to us being imminently acquired.

A pre-launch acquisition has never been impossible, just very unlikely. And no reason an acquisition can't happen 3-6 months down the line, or later.

[kubera369] 14/2/2024 17:24

What's your min target price here ?

[nickb] 14/2/2024 17:23

Bird could be an instant overnight success that has been 20 years in the making 😀

[nickb] 14/2/2024 17:22

If we had a good rns of a multi million $ 5 year contract licensing deal drop Say Avid then you can’t expect to buy for a few pence more.

So even in the normal business a huge step change can occur.

[sideshowbull] 14/2/2024 17:04

Another one I was in was SNG 3p to 266p in less than 5 months.

BWTFDIK