Blackbird Share Discussion Threads

[pat_cash] 10/10/2019 13:23

As Adam said on the first night - Stand back, Eve, I'm not sure how big this thing is going to get - absolute classic Invest - I'll use that from now on if you don't mind. Enjoyed the rest of the write up too ;)

[invest360] 10/10/2019 13:02

SSB re question on the Player. I�m not entirely sure. I know that the old adage �You can do anything, you just can�t do everything� probably comes into play here. I imagine they are kept extremely busy with the large prospective deal flow that I believe is on the point of landing, and the tech development / bespoking that inevitably entails. I think we also need to appreciate that their core focus is landing all the deals they now have in their pipeline for the B-to-B market. The player represents a move into the B-B-C market. Though it is an even bigger market it�s not clear to me given the progress they have recently made in the former it�s a good idea to switch focus when they�re just about to press home their advantage. That said, we know that at IBC Google expressed an interest in what that player could do for them, so I suspect we just need to watch that space for a while...

[astralvision] 10/10/2019 12:53

Yes, great post invest.

[sideshowbull] 10/10/2019 12:50

Thanks Invest, what about player? Your thoughts on that.?

[denjon] 10/10/2019 12:36

Invest360Your extensive write up is very much appreciated.

[invest360] 10/10/2019 12:33

I agree about your binary point, NickB.
About a year ago there was a, say, equal risk that they'd make it big (10x-50x) or run out of money (in 30 months as it was then) and go bust. We knew they had great tech but the $bn question was whether any large companies would want to buy the product?
That question has been answered, now, given the type of corporates they�ve sign-up recently, like A+E (Disney).
The next question was, having bought the product, would there be any proof of it going down well?
I think that question was answered by TownNews - increased penetration from 3 - 46 news stations in a year. And on Monday we learned that their partner Deltatre will be increasing its penetration into NFL from just Europe to another 181 countries (having increased the online viewership of NFL by 48%). And the Senior Director of Production at A+E says that he is "Psyched ... about the deployment of Bird" and even though it's a 6-figure deal it's only penetrated about 10% of the corporation. So that risk has been dealt with, too.
Next hurdle is whether there are any competitors about to eat their lunch? It's hard to be sure about this, but we know that the issues involved in producing Codecs of this sophistication (Cloud + Faster than real time ingest + 2Mb download + Pro-editing + java script + zero-latency + 21 USP player + 8m hours of professional usage) are going to be challenging for anyone to emulate/better. And SS and his team have had 30 years of doing nothing other than this � so they know a thing or two. More to the point, people at the cutting edge of this market, like CTO of Deltatre say �Best of breed� and CEO of TownNews: �� can�t get anywhere else.� Then Google announce that BB are one of only 6 founding partners in their big push into becoming the dominant player in the Cloud. With all this in mind my view is that BB have now removed that barrier, as well.
If that is the case then the pipeline that 5 salespeople have been working on over 2 years must be around 200-300 major corporates, will start to turn into deals pretty soon. This includes the work of 10 global partners, plus AWS, Azure (who delivered A+E) and now Google.
From this evidence, my belief is that we can finally say with some confidence that it�s highly likely that deal flow is about to start coming pretty thick and fast.
If that is the case, then as soon as they break even, and with a gross margin of 85% then for EVERY �100k deal (ie tiny) you can imagine how this will affect the share price on a P/E ratio of 20-30. I invite you to do the maths�
There are companies quoted on the FTSE 250 that might have �bn turnover but < 10% net profits. But BB is a SaaS company where even a �50m turnover would create a similar market cap. If I�m right, then the share price is a shadow of it's potential. As Adam said on the first night �Stand back, Eve, I�m not sure how big this thing is going to get.�

[mcsean2164] 10/10/2019 12:24

Still here bonio, holding out for more gains.

Would love to see some news as those looking for a quick profit could bail once the rise flattens. Anyway, great to see the share price going up which is another reason why an external company would buy Blackbird the product (we are now a �50 million company).

Maybe this is actually the year that Bird soars..

[invest360] 10/10/2019 12:19

I agree about your binary point, NickB.
About a year ago there was a, say, equal risk that they'd make it big (10x-50x) or run out of money (in 30 months as it was then) and go bust. We knew they had great tech but the $bn question was whether any large companies would want to buy the product?
That question has been answered, now, given the type of corporates they�ve sign-up recently, like A+E (Disney).
The next question was, having bought the product, would there be any proof of it going down well?
I think that question was answered by TownNews - increased penetration from 3 - 46 news stations in a year. And on Monday we learned that their partner Deltatre will be increasing its penetration into NFL from just Europe to another 181 countries (having increased the online viewership of NFL by 48%). And the Senior Director of Production at A+E says that he is "Psyched ... about the deployment of Bird" and even though it's a 6-figure deal it's only penetrated about 10% of the corporation. So that risk has been dealt with, too.
Next hurdle is whether there are any competitors about to eat their lunch? It's hard to be sure about this, but we know that the issues involved in producing Codecs of this sophistication (Cloud + Faster than real time ingest + 2Mb download + Pro-editing + java script + zero-latency + 21 USP player + 8m hours of professional usage) are going to be challenging for anyone to emulate/better. And SS and his team have had 30 years of doing nothing other than this � so they know a thing or two. More to the point, people at the cutting edge of this market, like CTO of Deltatre say �Best of breed� and CEO of TownNews: �� can�t get anywhere else.� Then Google announce that BB are one of only 6 founding partners in their big push into becoming the dominant player in the Cloud. With all this in mind my view is that BB have now removed that barrier, as well.
If that is the case then the pipeline that 5 salespeople have been working on over 2 years must be around 200-300 major corporates, will start to turn into deals pretty soon. This includes the work of 10 global partners, plus AWS, Azure (who delivered A+E) and now Google.
From this evidence, my belief is that we can finally say with some confidence that it�s highly likely that deal flow is about to start coming pretty thick and fast.
If that is the case, then as soon as they break even, and with a gross margin of 85% then for EVERY �100k deal (ie tiny) you can imagine how this will affect the share price on a P/E ratio of 20-30. I invite you to do the maths�
There are companies quoted on the FTSE 250 that might have �bn turnover but < 10% net profits. But BB is a SaaS company where even a �50m turnover would create a similar market cap. If I�m right, then the share price is a shadow of it's potential. As Adam said on the first night �Stand back, Eve, I�m not sure how big this thing is going to get.�

[astralvision] 10/10/2019 12:07

A few sellers cashing their chips in, all makes for a healthy market.

[astralvision] 10/10/2019 12:03

Looks like another good volume day.

[sideshowbull] 10/10/2019 11:40

50K @ 17.20P

[geheimnis2] 10/10/2019 11:26

lol nice one, b

[bonio10000] 10/10/2019 11:25

Well, Nanga is back.

[horneblower] 10/10/2019 11:24

Now we're above 10% riser we are in danger of loons arriving.

[astralvision] 10/10/2019 11:24

Lovely stuff!

[bonio10000] 10/10/2019 11:22

Did Mcsean sell at 12p?

[nickb] 10/10/2019 11:22

Recent sellers won�t be happy I guess

[sideshowbull] 10/10/2019 11:19

There you go max 15k @ 17p!

I 'm a bagger yay me

# notselling

[bonio10000] 10/10/2019 11:17

The BIRD is the word.

[geheimnis2] 10/10/2019 11:16

Gosh.....


The Future is finally arriving

[sideshowbull] 10/10/2019 11:16

We going to see 17p!

25k max 16.95p

[sideshowbull] 10/10/2019 11:09

Think it's only the second time ever BIRD has been in Auction.

[horneblower] 10/10/2019 11:04

Interesting. The normal 10 minutes has passed and no action yet.

[astralvision] 10/10/2019 11:02

They might as well just jack the share price to >20p and be done with it.