Hairflick
It doesn’t matter who is right both can be right
No one is saying we WILL be acquired but no one should say we won’t
Left alone we build the figma + of video |
Acquisition would probably take 6-12 months
Huge amount of work and wider strategy
It doesn’t happen overnight! |
Everyone is entitled to their opinion.
Some will be proven right, some will be proven wrong.
I have no idea which will be which but I know what I hope for. |
 Bisho
You are wrong 😀 ‘it would have happened by now’
What has to take place is the Blackbird codec is perfected for scaling
The product architecture has to be developed and perfected to be able to function and hyper scale
This is the point we are now at we are just doing the finishing touches to a point of commercialisation.
Hence the window of acquisition is now open even a couple of months before payment gateway
A tremendous amount of technical testing and analysis has to be done by both sides, it has to work and the numbers have to work.
The payment gateway or the lead up to it is a point in the timeline that for the first time ever the ip can be passed to a large company who can take BIG advantage
That’s the power of a large company
Our power is IP and product development
As a simple example
If elevate passed to Adobe
Elevate goes from 10k + subscribers to 30 million over night
Big tech even greater
However once we start growing it would be crazy to accept any offers if our ambition is Canva figma growth curve
So we are approaching the optimal acquisition time of transfer of ip/product to another company to scale for BOTH SIDES us and big tech.
That’s not the same thing as me saying it will happen it’s just technically it’s the optimal point in time. |
bisho4
I think all we can all say is what we think is logical.
I agree that to you, and infact to me, it would seem logical for an interested company to move as soon as possible. However, I have no experience of working in a big tech company so I have no idea what their decision making process is and how long their decision making process is. Maybe there have been discussions which may or may not lead somewhere.
I expect that individuals in a big tech company may be reluctant to rush at anything as that might damage their reputation if they judge it wrong.
As you say, a big tech company may be building their own "good enough product" but why build a product that is less than elevate when they could try to acquire top of the range cloud native elevate.
If one big tech company did develop their own video platform, then that might put pressure on other companies to go for elevate.
There is no certainty about takeovers in the next 12 months. In the meantime, it will remain an unanswered question, and we will continue to press ahead and do the best we can as an independent company. |
@salmon9, the resistance being shown to my viewpoint suggests that people are disputing my theory that BIRD won't be bought out. See nickb's post just before yours. It seems inconceivable to him that it won't happen. |
I'm not saying we can't, I'm saying we won't.
If we were going to be bought out, it would have happened already.
It doesn't make any sense for Big Tech to wait for the payment gateway to be switched on to know what BIRD can do.
Big Tech already know what BIRD have, and what it will be capable of, and how Big Tech would expand it (and incorporate it into their own offerings) if they bought it.
There is literally no reason to wait several more months if they want to buy it.
Buying it now would eliminate the possibility of a rival buying it. It would reduce the possibility of a bidding war. It would be cheaper to buy it now for, e.g. £2bn, than £4bn in 18 months' time. Or £20bn in 4 years' time.
Buying it now would mean the next few months of development and optimisation could take place under the buyer's guidance and direction, tailored for and integrated into their own software/products/systems rather than having to reconfigure things afterwards.
Buying it now would give the buyer a headstart on commercialisation and pricing plans, offering deals & packages to existing customers.
There is no reason to wait 6-12 months to buy BIRD if they know they want it.
One final alternative, that cannot be discounted, is that BigTech is developing their own in-house alternative, that will be good enough jot to require spending billions on BIRD, thus making BIRD the Betamax of cloud video editing. |
bisho4
I don't think anyone is saying that as you put it: "........ the seemingly undisputable premise that BIRD will be bought out (a) before launch, or (b) shortly after launch."
I think the view with some people is that being taken over is a real possibility due to the performance quality and advantages of elevate, and the fact that video is becoming so important. However, of course it may not happen, in which case elevate will continue to grow what should be a very profitable business, just as Canva and Figma have done.
At the end of the day, it will depend on the appetite of a big player to increase their position with video by capitalising on the opportunity offered by elevate. |
Explain
WHY (from the point of view of big tech)we can’t be bought by big tech in this 12 month time period
Thanks |
bisho
They can’t be bought now can they.
That’s the point😀 |
Don't forget that adobe missed out on buying figma for 20 billion because they left it too late |
@salmon9.
The business models most relevant to BIRD are Canva and Figma... Excellent. And how much were they bought out for by Big Tech...?
And when they were bought out by Big Tech, was it before launch? Or shortly after launch, when the payment gateway switched on...?
Oh, they weren't bought out at all? Okay...
I'm not debating the merits of BIRD or elevate's product offering. I am disputing the seemingly undisputable premise that BIRD will be bought out (a) before launch, or (b) shortly after launch.
Rather than, as seems obvious to me, we have many years ahead of us before BIRD reaches unicorn status (if it does). |
So 50 percent still in insti hands. That's comforting. |
Indeed
The stock market disconnect is palpable |
What is the warning most often put on investment ad ie sites? "The past is no guide to the future". In BIRDs case that will be true but most will not realise that before the price soars. The market is enormous and growing fast, their margins are at the top end and those who don't use it will literally pay more for their mistake. |
That perspective cuts right through the mist so we can see how important this development is.
The current share price shows that at this stage, hardly anyone understands this.
Yesterday I conversed with a hedge fund CEO whose main concern about elevate was whether they would be able to raise more funds if needed by Dec 2025.
I responded by saying that by that stage, elevate's amazing breakthrough technology would be plain to see and so it would be inconceivable that funds wouldn't be made available.
This person's technical focus on Blackbird's accounts records showing it has never made a profit was sufficient to stop him looking at the detail of elevate and what it looks likely to achieve. At this stage, there must be lots more investors like this. |
Nick
I thought that might have been worth Caps as well as Bold ;-) |
What is significant about the timeline we are on?
Investors think that when the payment gateway switches on in Q1 that is significant, it is but not technically for the reason you think!
What it means is the technology and product application becomes
The first commercial hyper scale video editing platform in the world
It’s at this point we become very valuable to big tech |
Absolutely |
It seems time to remember that we have been told by Blackbird management many times that the business models which are the most relevant are Canva and Figma. |
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