I still think that it has been a huge amount of effort to understand the ins and outs of what Blackbird/elevate is doing and what it might achieve.
We have been prepared to do that because we were already deeply invested in Blackbird before elevate. We are very motivated to see the way forward and hopefully see a way to success!
I think outsiders would be daunted by trying to understand what is going on and what the future might be, so they probably look around for an investment which seems more straightforward to seemingly understand. |
‘Plus we aren’t even sure it will be a success, otherwise we would all still be loading up in size.’
Some of us have financial restrictions!
Turning your your point 180 around why are we not all selling? |
Cabi
Yes I can understand, I smile 😊 but I’m not being influenced by them!
Should I be influenced by these market investors? |
NickB
We believe, but surely you can understand why many don’t.
Plus we aren’t even sure it will be a success, otherwise we would all still be loading up in size. |
Cabi
So with Hard evidence of success I can buy for 7.5p ?
Interesting |
Concentrate
With respect I think you are just using emotional feelings to come up with those figures which is fine for you of course. |
Exactly.
History shows all the previous products were met with excitement by those invested. Customers were harder to convince than those invested. Great things were apparently on the horizon.
Then the focus changed to looking at something else on the horizon.
Perhaps this time really is different, but it's not clear it is yet. |
I don’t think it’s the case that share price is down here because of lack of knowledge by investors.
It’s down here because they lose money, and have never successfully monetised any of their products in 23 years, and investors wonder if elevate is going to be any different.
People now want hard evidence they can monetise it, and would rather pay a higher price, than gamble at current levels. |
Nick, I don't. If I put faith in the market there's no way I'd be investing in this AIM company.
15% bankrupt
40% 7p
30% 14p
10% - £2
5% - £15
Expected value: £1.02
Obviously these figures have been plucked out of the sky, a bit of fun, no strong rationale. I think some people are being a bit tunnel visioned. Someone could develop a new tech tomorrow.
Salmon - sort of fair enough, but it wasn't the point of the exercise in determining an exit value.IM and SS will want an exit also. |
NickB
I agree that the share price indicates that the investing market has little knowledge about the potential for Blackbird/elevate.
Therefore the share price is disconnected from what is going on within the company in terms of the amazing commercial prospects for it's developments, and it's logical potential for a much higher share price. |
Concentrate
Why do you put so much faith in ‘the market’ ? |
Concentrate
The one option which wasn't listed by you, was continuing to go it alone as an independent company indefinitely.
If that was included in the list, I would suggest 25% for this, and that would mean the 70% and 30 % in my list would be reduced to say 60% and 15%. |
💯. I'm nearly 10 years invested and the certainty expressed on this BB is not reflected in the share price |
Noting your reassurance on the private take over though - my main fear.
Would be gutted if we sold to management backed by PE, and then in 2 years it flys. |
Nor do the posters concerned. If they did, they'd have every single cent they have in the company. |
The market doesn't agree with the 100% certainty that the company will be sold for £1+ though. |
I agree with those numbers Salmon. |
Concentrate
It was interesting to see your somewhat light heated assessment. I have listed my assessment as the second number alongside each one. We have such limited facts about a possible take over that the main basis for assessment has to be intuition!
15% bankrupt 0% They haven't come so far for this to happen. They are survivors.
40% Taken private for small sum, say £30m. 0% I have received a reassurance on this point.
30% Acquired for tech from competitor, for modest premium (say £60m) 0% There is no way they would sell for so little after all the work and the current demonstrable achievement in terms of reaching touching distance of a complete product.
10% - £1+ acquisition. 70% Presumably this means between £1 and £9.99
5% - £10+ acquisition (though huge viral success) 30%
Decent expected value. 100% Agreed |
Yet ‘the market’ didn’t recognise the news and devalued the company.
‘Market knows best’😂 |
I concur.
BIRD has often stated a planned target date of Q1 2025, however, I believe that SXSW is now, by default, the fixed deadline. |
 Well yeah obviously its theoretical, that's why a very conservative P/E has been stated could easily be double that and sum. Also I don't see a great deal more commercially happening until March. It would make complete sense to launch then and compliment that with a marketing drive to begin just before SXSW.Let's not forget this is where the likes of Twitter and Billie Eilish rose to fame. Indeed the power and reach of such an event even helped Johnny Cash revitalise his career by reaching out to a whole new generation of fans after it's collaboration. Another huge success from the event is Icon now worth over 8 billion.Am not sure if some of you realise how big of an event this is and comes almost with such exceptional timing with where Elevate.io will be come March.Little bit of info of what SXSW is all about.Innovation: SXSW celebrates creativity and innovation, providing a platform for groundbreaking ideas and technologies. * Networking: The conference brings together a diverse group of people from various industries, fostering collaboration and connections. * Exposure: With extensive media coverage and a large audience of tech-savvy attendees, SXSW offers unparalleled exposure for new products and talent.This will also include investors and I would not be surprised to see new HNW getting involved in our story who don't currently know about us positively impacting the share price |
My very rough thoughts, as a bit of fun:
15% bankrupt
40% Taken private for small sum, say £30m.
30% Acquired for tech from competitor, for modest premium (say £60m)
10% - £1+ acquisition
5% - £10+ acquisition (though huge viral success)
Decent expected value. |
All very theoretical until we have more data on paid users. At 3% paid, that 100,000 subscribers is 3.3m users.
Personally I think you're under stating the PE for a rapidly growing company - but hugely downplaying the risk that the market for millions of users isn't there (or that there aren't better alternatives to elevate).
Nice to dream, but we're 6.5p for a reason. |
What P/E ratio would you put on a disruptive tech company? Surely at least 20 and if so that would give us a share price of around £15 with 1 million customers.* Earnings per Share (EPS): £300,000,000 (annual profit) / 400,000,000 shares = £0.75 per share * Estimated Share Price: £0.75 (EPS) * 20 (P/E ratio) = £15.00 per shareAssuming your figures were accurate we would only need 100000 paying subscribers at £36 per month to see a share price of £1.50 again at the conservative P/E of 20. Here are some examples of historical P/E ratio.High Growth SaaS Tech Companies* Salesforce: Has historically seen P/E ratios in the 40-100 range. * Adobe: Similar to Salesforce, often in the 40-60 range. * Shopify: Peaked at very high P/E ratios (over 100) during its rapid growth phase.Mature Tech Giants (Historically): * P/E ratios tend to be lower and more stable for established companies with proven track records and consistent earnings. * Examples: * Apple: Has fluctuated but generally in the 20-30 range. * Microsoft: Similar to Apple, typically in the 20-35 range. * Google (Alphabet): Also in the 20-30 range historically. |
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