💯. I'm nearly 10 years invested and the certainty expressed on this BB is not reflected in the share price |
Noting your reassurance on the private take over though - my main fear.
Would be gutted if we sold to management backed by PE, and then in 2 years it flys. |
Nor do the posters concerned. If they did, they'd have every single cent they have in the company. |
The market doesn't agree with the 100% certainty that the company will be sold for £1+ though. |
I agree with those numbers Salmon. |
Concentrate
It was interesting to see your somewhat light heated assessment. I have listed my assessment as the second number alongside each one. We have such limited facts about a possible take over that the main basis for assessment has to be intuition!
15% bankrupt 0% They haven't come so far for this to happen. They are survivors.
40% Taken private for small sum, say £30m. 0% I have received a reassurance on this point.
30% Acquired for tech from competitor, for modest premium (say £60m) 0% There is no way they would sell for so little after all the work and the current demonstrable achievement in terms of reaching touching distance of a complete product.
10% - £1+ acquisition. 70% Presumably this means between £1 and £9.99
5% - £10+ acquisition (though huge viral success) 30%
Decent expected value. 100% Agreed |
Yet ‘the market’ didn’t recognise the news and devalued the company.
‘Market knows best’😂 |
I concur.
BIRD has often stated a planned target date of Q1 2025, however, I believe that SXSW is now, by default, the fixed deadline. |
 Well yeah obviously its theoretical, that's why a very conservative P/E has been stated could easily be double that and sum. Also I don't see a great deal more commercially happening until March. It would make complete sense to launch then and compliment that with a marketing drive to begin just before SXSW.Let's not forget this is where the likes of Twitter and Billie Eilish rose to fame. Indeed the power and reach of such an event even helped Johnny Cash revitalise his career by reaching out to a whole new generation of fans after it's collaboration. Another huge success from the event is Icon now worth over 8 billion.Am not sure if some of you realise how big of an event this is and comes almost with such exceptional timing with where Elevate.io will be come March.Little bit of info of what SXSW is all about.Innovation: SXSW celebrates creativity and innovation, providing a platform for groundbreaking ideas and technologies. * Networking: The conference brings together a diverse group of people from various industries, fostering collaboration and connections. * Exposure: With extensive media coverage and a large audience of tech-savvy attendees, SXSW offers unparalleled exposure for new products and talent.This will also include investors and I would not be surprised to see new HNW getting involved in our story who don't currently know about us positively impacting the share price |
My very rough thoughts, as a bit of fun:
15% bankrupt
40% Taken private for small sum, say £30m.
30% Acquired for tech from competitor, for modest premium (say £60m)
10% - £1+ acquisition
5% - £10+ acquisition (though huge viral success)
Decent expected value. |
All very theoretical until we have more data on paid users. At 3% paid, that 100,000 subscribers is 3.3m users.
Personally I think you're under stating the PE for a rapidly growing company - but hugely downplaying the risk that the market for millions of users isn't there (or that there aren't better alternatives to elevate).
Nice to dream, but we're 6.5p for a reason. |
What P/E ratio would you put on a disruptive tech company? Surely at least 20 and if so that would give us a share price of around £15 with 1 million customers.* Earnings per Share (EPS): £300,000,000 (annual profit) / 400,000,000 shares = £0.75 per share * Estimated Share Price: £0.75 (EPS) * 20 (P/E ratio) = £15.00 per shareAssuming your figures were accurate we would only need 100000 paying subscribers at £36 per month to see a share price of £1.50 again at the conservative P/E of 20. Here are some examples of historical P/E ratio.High Growth SaaS Tech Companies* Salesforce: Has historically seen P/E ratios in the 40-100 range. * Adobe: Similar to Salesforce, often in the 40-60 range. * Shopify: Peaked at very high P/E ratios (over 100) during its rapid growth phase.Mature Tech Giants (Historically): * P/E ratios tend to be lower and more stable for established companies with proven track records and consistent earnings. * Examples: * Apple: Has fluctuated but generally in the 20-30 range. * Microsoft: Similar to Apple, typically in the 20-35 range. * Google (Alphabet): Also in the 20-30 range historically. |
I hope you’re right. |
Lost opportunity cost of big tech for waiting shouldn’t be underestimated. |
In that case it looks like it will be tens of £billions later rather than £billions sooner. |
Chris
I believe they won’t sell it cheap! |
It would be a pity to let a big tech company pick up BIRD now. Think of those who bought at £1.75 back in 2000 and still hold them. When the paying versions are released (and a lot more can be added in two months) it shouldn't create a ripple in the market more of a tidal wave. Just think of what 1M users will generate at the average £36 a month that Allenby set out in their 2nd iteration: £432M gross revenue. Even allowing for high marketing costs, which may not happen, £300M profit could well be achievable i.e around 75p a share which should smash through SSBs first target. |
It’s nearly ready to scale
Simple Question is
Do we do it or does a big tech company? |
Not too sure on that ?
Who knows, maybe Stevo and Ian Stokholmed me?
I think not
BWTFDIK
SSB |
I’ve got too many. |
Nick,
Yes, I was thinking of the audio fade handles.
Clearly you're thinking of something more sophisticated.
I'm a total amateur here. |
Hornblower
Have not checked today
Are you thinking of audio fade handles which are present
Beauty of cross fades is that it’s a simple way of adjusting the volume level mix over a clip duration.
Scissor cut to split the clip then add cross fade effect adjust volume to new level |
Hornblower
I have managed to edit for decades without AI
It’s very early days with Ai most of it has only surfaced months ago
It’s on the list and we ‘should’ be able to tap into all those services on AWS |
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