Bisichi Share Discussion Threads

[tigerbythetail] 11/2/2022 15:02

Wow! That was quite some round trip to nowhere! Two big sales obliterated the spike.
Back to waiting for the annual results to come out, I guess.
Perhaps what matters most isn't the trading action today, but that SA benchmark coal is selling for $190/t.

[robizm] 11/2/2022 11:31

Trouble is a bunch of crooks run this outfit unlike TGA

[tigerbythetail] 11/2/2022 10:37

Here we go indeed!
Officially, 115/135p but no shares to buy. I bought as many as I dared earlier, but I wish now I'd been a bit braver!
Thanks for the tip about LAS - I hadn't thought of that as a work around. Bought a few over there as a proxy for BISI.
If you read across from the Thungela results to Bisi, then almost any number is possible here. This could five bag easily.

[8gggggggg] 11/2/2022 10:30

Blimey here we go .....

[8gggggggg] 11/2/2022 10:25

Incredible results ..almost £300m...TGA....I have sold a few at 578 and tried to buy more BiSI. but none offered. I. have been able to buy a few LAS that have a 40% stake in BISI.....

[tigerbythetail] 11/2/2022 09:47

Can sell. Can't buy. Hmmm....

[tigerbythetail] 11/2/2022 09:21

Oh, how the stock market exists to make fools of us.
Thungela just posted a trading statement RNS as I was writing that post, and it's amazing. So I've just hurriedly bought back a few shares.
It bodes well for BISI as well.

[tigerbythetail] 11/2/2022 09:07

Richard's Bay - now $195/t. Yep, it's mind boggling.
Final accounts expected in April (judging by last year). Not really expecting to hear anything from management until then. If my calculations are anything like correct, I expect a violent share price correction then.
I've sold out of Thungela now. I'm very grateful for all I've made there. But it's always best to leave a party a little bit too early, before there is a rush for the door.
My energy suggestions would be North Sea gas producer SGZ and (as a punt stock) CHAR.

[8gggggggg] 08/2/2022 17:01

When are the final accounts expected?..... Hard to believe the Richard Bay coal price , but Newcastle is even higher.I am in THG, looking for other pure coal producers..

[tigerbythetail] 08/2/2022 08:45

Richard's Bay AP14 February benchmark now $189/t.
If BISI aren't making bonanza profits at this price then they shouldn't be in business.

[tigerbythetail] 04/2/2022 14:22

Richard's Bay AP14 benchmark currently $172/t.
Futures prices out to May 2023 are over $110/t.
Under the circumstances, Bisichi really ought to release a trading statement. As long as they are managing to get coal out of the ground and to move it to a buyer reasonably efficiently, they should be making transformational profits.

[8gggggggg] 25/1/2022 18:02

Yes TGA. London ...Very helpful info ..... Thanks. Definitely worth putting on watch list...... I invested here maybe 10 years ago I recall selling put around 350p .. they did reach over 400/425 ...so for me 80/100 p I have to follow up.....

[tigerbythetail] 25/1/2022 15:07

By THG I assume you mean Thungela (JSE:THG), and not The Hut Group (LSE:THG).
I also hold some Thungela - it's been very good to me. (The less said about The Hut Group the better).
One of the problems with BISI is the extremely limited information they give out - they report the absolute minimum that is required by law. They also have some dull but worthy UK property assets awkwardly tacked onto the South African mining assets. And the mining assets only have a short mine life remaining - though presumably they are looking at ways to extend this and to extract further value from the coal washing plant.
Potentially, this is trading on a current P/E of significantly less than 1(!) given current coal prices. But it's far harder to analyse than Thungela, and I have more questions than answers about it.
I have the following questions in particular: did production meet guidance of 550K tonnes for H2 2021? What is guidance for 2022? Have been Bisichi been affected by Transnet's well known problems? What is the discount between the AP14 Richard's Bay benchmark coal price and the actual price that Bisichi receive for their coal? What is the AISC for Bisichi's production? And what are the capex demands of the business moving forwards? Etcetera!

[8gggggggg] 25/1/2022 14:00

So it looks like Cash flow about 2/3 times MC...?Are you based in London?I think this needs further research, I hold THG in a similar position..Dakas

[tigerbythetail] 21/1/2022 15:36

Hi!
1. In H1 2021 interim report Bisichi gives an average Richard's Bay AP14 coal price for H1 2021 (their benchmark) as $97/t. By my calculation it comes out as $98/t (so our numbers all but match).
2. In H2 2021 I make the average price for the same benchmark coal as $156/t.
3. Today it is $160/t.
So we are talking about a very sizeable difference in commodity price!
I have made up a very crude model (information is extremely limited), and I make it that EBITDA for H2 2021 should be about $20m (i.e. roughly £15m). This compares to EBITDA of £1m in H1 2021. £15m is a lot given that Bisichi's debts are not huge and it only has a mcap of about £9m.
4. So far H1 2022 looks like it will follow H2 2022 price-wise, so if you factor in that as well, then it looks like this company is an extreme bargain.
5. That said, the lack of investor communication etc. unnerves me. I guess we'll find out in April (when we should get the final results) how things really stand.

[8gggggggg] 21/1/2022 09:40

What do you think gross profit , revenue might be ...?

[bisiboy] 20/1/2022 22:58

I’m sure they will find some excuse for not returning profit to shareholders I expect record bonus for directors for a start if we are really lucky maybe a small dividend to keep us happy. I’m not sure why I continue to hold this share I think it’s because it always looks so undervalued and now I’m afraid to sell through fear of missing out one day.

[8gggggggg] 20/1/2022 22:26

What do you estimate Gross and nett profit will be with RBCPrice at 150/160$ ton8gggggggg

[tigerbythetail] 20/1/2022 13:20

Richard's Bay coal price still very high - $160/t today.
Either Bisichi have huge production or logistical problems (and they haven't informed the market), or their revenues must have shot up.

[tigerbythetail] 24/12/2021 11:01

The market cap here is only £9m!
The extra revenue from the big increase in coal prices we're talking about must be making a huge difference - surely?
Or not?
I guess we'll find out in March, when Bisichi issue their results. The BOD only seem to issue the absolute legal minimum of information about the company - no trading updates etc.
It's an odd one, this one, for sure.

[8gggggggg] 24/12/2021 07:26

Interesting....I invested in Bisi 10 plus years ago when coal price shot up and share price went above 350p.!.

[tigerbythetail] 23/12/2021 14:47

Royalties, yes. They vary from 0.5% to 7% - formula is complex.
I allowed for this is in my fingers and thumbs calculation.
The problem is Bisichi don't publish enough detail to allow me to make a decent model for their finances.
This company puzzles me. Either I'm missing something big, or it's a huge bargain given where coal prices have been over the last six months.

[8gggggggg] 23/12/2021 08:07

Do they have to pay big royalties. .?Dakas

[tigerbythetail] 22/12/2021 13:16

The year is almost up, and the 6 month average Richard's Bay AP14 coal price (for H2) looks like it will be c. $140/t.
This compares with the average $97/t price reported for the same benchmark (for H1) in the interims.
It's not as simple as to say that Bisichi will report extra income of 553,000t of coal x price difference ($140-$97). Firstly, they sell at a discount to the benchmark. Secondly, we don't know about production, potential impact of sales of coal from existing stockpiles, and the effect of transport difficulties. (And yes, a trading update would be greatly appreciated).
However, my fingers and thumbs calculation makes it that revenues will have increased by about $17m, on much the same cost base (n.b. rand has depreciated). That should make a huge difference to this small company's profitability!

[tigerbythetail] 06/12/2021 08:43

Thungela (TGA - the South African spin out of AA's thermal coal mines) has released a pre-close statement this morning - they've amassed 8bn rand ($0.5bn) in cash so far this year, against a market cap of 10bn rand (at opening this morning - rapid rerate now in progress!).
How much can these results be used to read across to Bisi? This is the standard list, and the company only issues the bare minimum of information to the market. It really should release its own trading statement as well, given the very high coal prices. But we may have to wait until March before learning what the financial situation is here. I still think (on balance) the company may report substantially more than its current market cap in cash, but Bisi don't make it easy.