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[and then] 20/12/2011 12:44

Bit of fun;

[and then] 20/12/2011 10:45

The beauty about this game is that your thoughts evolve continuously, the market is designed to send you in the wrong direction. Its how it takes your money.
My thinking right now is bearish for the next few hours; remember i'm predominantly trading the Audi and the Euro in tandem.
It looks like the Euro is in the middle of Wave 3, whilst the Audi started last night from a lower base and therefore is probably printing/just finished wave 1.
As is often the case Wave 1 will be mostly retraced by wave 2, together with the massive spike on the Euro in the last hour, as previously stated, it has lots of room to drop in tandem and yet still keep to a HL and be within its wave 3. This could become and extended wave together with the Audi working through its own wave 3. Judging by the size of the current wave 1 on the Audi and of course if i'm right, it all means there is considerable upside to come, (after this afternoons retrace). However, it will probably only take us into the first week, maybe middle of January as the flagline to the south looks far too tasty not to be broken in the New year. Watching and no doubt will have to re-adjust my views several times!

[and then] 20/12/2011 10:10

The Euro has just shot to the moon and taken out yet another previous high. Unfortunately that means no nice controlled pullback and a large spike instead on the chart. Not really what we want at all, because it can't be sustained. Its obviously making a statement, but now there is lots of room to the downside this afternoon but still within its uptrend. I guess if i were the market that's what i would do, just to confuse the sh*t out of everyone!

[and then] 20/12/2011 10:06

Perfect example of highlighting the 'nailed on' 3rd wave advance trade. So even in a downtrend, we find the counter-trend pullback will trend this way too on a small time scale.

[and then] 20/12/2011 09:15

I guess a picture says a thousand words;



So, this is how i see it. As stated above, we can start a pullback at any time after taking out the last high. Ideally it wants to be right now, having breached it by just a few points. This one if it forms a flagline with a couple of good quality touchpoints and a healthy pullback first from the line, will be the best set-up of the whole advance. As i've been working on late last wee, i have labelled the 1/2 waves also as a 123 reversal. The HH also triggers this.

Cleverly the market creates a caveat, it stopped short of taking out the last LH before the LL (point1 on the chart), it leaves it clear to reverse from the high a few minutes ago all the way back down to fresh lows, as if it were a 2B reversal. (i'm not expecting this!)

[and then] 20/12/2011 09:06

Well, its all a little clearer this morning. Somehow i got short on both Euro and Audi last night, but realised i was making the set-up suit. It wasn't carrying through to all timescales. Only the 30min made a valid SUB and trigger on the Audi. The longer term flagline was breached by a few pips on the Euro, but i guess that just requires a fresh line to be drawn now...

As suggested, we are heading higher, (although the early rise this morning needs to get sold off a bit now!). I was a bit over enthusiastic in post 737 yesterday morning with the 'little belief in the upside', however the touchpoint for the flagline was, i feel, important. I believe we can look for the end of the wave 3 advances soon. The corrective wave 4's will be shallower and longer before a brief wave 5, HH's and then crashing back down, probably this time through the longer term flaglines and into the abyss... well, you know.
The point is, its TA we are following so no need to try to predict too far ahead. Trade whats in front of you for the next couple of hours. Having missed the first set-ups on the Audi/Euro of wave 3, it at least gives confirmation with the last highs being breached. Look now for a pullback and a gaurantee'd second set-up higher high...

[joe moon] 19/12/2011 21:50

..its all a bit hit and miss to be sure

[and then] 19/12/2011 21:37

Audi target was 9894 too :)

Markets actually got me in a spin right now and believe it or not, i've had a shocking day trading... biggest hit for some time...
Not quite sure how its happened, although having to spend the day with the missus, (its her birthday); it was never a good idea even to log-in! I seem to recall the current pattern from before, it was a reversal signal, but only short lived, so its poss we are as i mentioned last night, going to do another small 5wave advance, (1,2 already done and starting 3 now), only to come crashing down after. Got a headache and have to give the missus some attention...
It is indeed a hard life!

[joe moon] 19/12/2011 21:12

11755 done now guru

[and then] 19/12/2011 11:12

Well well, strange goings on... Dow hit 11762 (according to IG futures) overnight. The target was 11755. Does it have unfinished business there? No HH on the Loonie yet, makes me think it will.
Euro and Audi gave set-ups late Friday night to the short side, but the triggers were well hidden and made me think it was too risky to trade. As it was the Audi also came very close to the TP but didn't hit.
The Euro however bounced off of a flagline. The relevance of this, i feel, is significant. I have very very little belief in the upside story now. It is a trendline that surely must be broken, (probably this week) with another 4hr candle of 100+ points. That will be the signal that the next wave will be underway.
Can the markets detach? I doubt it. I'm a bear until i see a few upside stops get taken out. It seems the bulls just don't have anything...

[and then] 18/12/2011 12:08

Not much to report except that what i'm seeing is slightly bearish on the dollar. Looks like the Loonie needs to print a HH yet though which might be the end of Wave 5. A corrective move should follow, hence my bearish bias. This would indicate either a gap down for the Euro/Audi tonight first, (Loonie up to print a HH) or at least early Monday and then head back up.

Bearish dollar = risk on, so maybe the santa rally everyone is so keen on, just might materialise after all, however i have a conflicting set-up on the Dow with an approximate 11,750 target. Could that coincide with the Loonie HH...

So down first early in the week but finish higher by the weekend? We shall see!

[and then] 17/12/2011 19:45

You seen me walk on water?! :)

Oh and you should see what i can turn red wine into...

[and then] 16/12/2011 18:58

Ok made a mistake with the above Euro chart in the placement of the 1,2 counts, but it matters not, the 3rd wave set-up was nailed on...

[and then] 16/12/2011 16:45

Gonna reprint an earlier post ref to recognising some basic Elliot stuff. Our resident specialists can pick it apart if they like, but these are some basics that everyone should try to learn and are my rough interpretation. regardless, it shows that recognising this can give you the idea as to where PA is likely to head, (which is surely what the game is all about?!);



The update shows i am right not to bother with wave 5. It is good for a HH, but not to give the usual R:R 1:1, i think i printed an approximate level to show this, the chart a little later looked like this;



Now compare it to the Euro; exactly the same albeit, the Euro is running slightly behind, having completed what i consider was a Wave 3 earlier with the upward spike. It is certainly a laboured move and its as if its saying it cant wait to get it over and done with so it can resume its journey south...

[and then] 16/12/2011 11:23

Watching that kind of profit turn into a loss and leaving your stop in place is a tricky decision. In hindsight we'd like to think that half profit would be banked somewhere around 50% of target, but hey in reality you'd be thinking it would continue to target. Hmmmmmm. I have told myself literally hundreds of times now; enter the trade, set stop and limit and walk away. I think my latest tweak means not to trade the 5th wave at all...

[and then] 16/12/2011 11:19

So, incorporating trading the 123 together with the end of wave count 2, looking deadly at the moment, this from yesterday's Audi chart;



Different timescales dont make any difference, these can be found on the 1min or the daily...

[and then] 15/12/2011 14:17

So lets try that again, but to the long side this time and shorter time frame;

[tpaulbeaumont] 15/12/2011 13:13

was thinking more along the lines of "0.5:1" or something like that :)

[and then] 15/12/2011 13:00

Tbp, good afternoon! Its the reversal set-up... the last of a wave. It will be triggered and give gaurantee'd points, just seldom the TP of 1:1 R:R. This is where it gets complicated and recognising it is important. I took a BE this week and threw away 25 points through not doing so.
That might not sound like much, but the system makes you miss a large part of a move to give you the 'gauranteed' points. Therefore its not about points, its percentages. A set-up might only have a 20 point target, but the risk is always the same (ie 3%), therefore the stake size constantly varies. Doesn't matter to me if the TP is 300 points or 3 points, the risk remains the same. Therefore that trade, that nearly hit TP was 2.7% up at its peak... to take BE after that is a kick in the nuts considering i have to wait so long for it to set-up!

[tpaulbeaumont] 15/12/2011 12:41

i see on that graph youve noted 'not good R:R' in the bottom right, most of your trades are 1:1 R:R, so whats 'not good R:R'?

[and then] 15/12/2011 12:17

Well, none of the pointers i was looking for two nights ago got confirmation. Wave counts appear to be nearing completion;

Some usful reminders/pointers;

[and then] 13/12/2011 18:43

and then - 13 Dec'11 - 18:08 - 119157 of 119173 edit

Something i want to keep my eye on in the next few days, but it might just be time to start a 'Santa rally'. Trust me, i'm a bear, but a certain set-up could be in the making and if so, we might see a sudden weakening of the dollar = risk on...

----------------

Just saving for prosterity, (possibly also prosperity too!)
Actually see a couple of things that make me think tonight could be a fairly substantial bottom for a couple of weeks...

[and then] 13/12/2011 12:54

and then - 13 Dec'11 - 11:16 - 118886 of 118924 edit

Flying along to target. Will it retest entry to catch the early stop raisers?!



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