Bens Creek Share Discussion Threads

[mark0419] 16/1/2023 19:21

.how do you remain solvent ? Every company you buy into ..you loose most of your capital .... Or do you make on the short side ? As your long picks are a capital disaster .Are there any shares your doing well in......omfg. ZERO CREDIBILITY and charity fraudster too. Lowest of the low.

[seagreen] 16/1/2023 15:46

My simple point is that they have recalibrated 2023 (revenue, cash, operating and other expenses) in table 3 on a scenario basis for DCF forecast purposes only.

Presumably to produce an estimated forecasted picture of what 2023 could have looked like if this run rate had existed of an established buisness without one off remedial start up costs.(Or some similar scenario)

A clear example is that they have recalibrated their forecasted revenues for the year at US$300/ton for the whole of 2023 which is clearly not reality.

276K x $300 = $82.8M

(based on 99.9K tons plus 6 x40 tons)

There is no point in wasting time on looking at individual costs as the DCF model does not give enough detail, but as your purile analysis in post 8416 shows the total costs for the year can not be lower than the interim costs.

So it is very logical to sugest they have recalibrated some of the costs and/or taken out one off start up and remedial costs.


However you have chosen to display, consolidate and compare recalibrated scenario model figures with actual interim results to cause maximum FUD.

My other point was to clearly emphasis they do not expect anyone other than idiots to use their DCF 2023 figures as factual estimates for 2023 as these figures are included in table 3.

Now wind your neck in and stop being such a fraud and deeply unpleasant.

[purchaseatthetop] 16/1/2023 14:02

Seagreen. Read my post again. The DCF valuation of course includes 2023 cashflow. They only start discounting from 2024. Look at page 6 of the report table 2 and you can see cumulative cash is calculated from 2023 and then they only discount cash from 2024 onwards. You should really try to study a little more. Actually you understand nothing. Pretend CFO and Nomad employee. Charlatan. Delusional moron.


You are taking their $48m revenue that they include on the page 1 summary for 2023 but the whole point is that is different to their $71m odd revenue that they have in their DCF calculation for 2023. The $48m figure is simply wrong. But get all outraged if you like.

[purchaseatthetop] 16/1/2023 13:57

Penstocks.
1) what evidence is there that actually the new seam is deeper and more efficient? The RNS merely stated that “initial analysis suggests….R21; Nothing since and certainly no RNS of ROM tons mined and clean percentage.
2) what evidence do you have that any coal is being trucked out to CSX trains? No RNS has mentioned this. Even if it were correct, the cost of trucking destroys margin.
3) Adam has been promising more trains throughout 2022 and actually less than even contracted to Integrity arrived. BEN has much less clout in West Virginia than other established US mines so I doubt their ability to gain more.

But I can see where you are coming from. If the BoD can actually run a mine efficiently the share should rise. So far, there is little evidence that they can do this.

[purchaseatthetop] 16/1/2023 08:41

And what is your opinion on the WHIreland report Seagreen? The analyst is paid by the company to provide the figures. It is up to you to check it is not ramping. Which, in my opinion, it is.

[seagreen] 16/1/2023 08:26

Hi Patt I will spend my Sunday how I like, not everyone is obsessed about Ben and the analyst is pdg with access to mgt and mgt accounts. So his opinion is far more valuable than I suspect

[penstocks] 16/1/2023 08:06

Hi PATT, sorry didn't reply yesterday. Was a no-BEN dad day out with my lad. I have read the report but am leaving it to others to comment on as I already posted my calculated costs per ton etc on LSE and Tgm but got no comments about them. Have said for last few months that the 77HWM would not start until February and not in full production until Easter. Some wanted to pump that it would be this month others like yourself wanted to say that Mega don't have a 77HWM. I found out the number back in June. I no longer rely on over optimistic podcasts or posters blatantly disagreeing with researched facts. My thoughts on the report are that the share price value of 86p is very low if we assume that they get 6-7 trains each month and $300/t market price. However, if the price drops and we don't get >4 trains then 86p will look high.
I am inexperienced still in mining operations but I reckon that the one and only train company (Norfolk Southern) with a line joining Ben Creek spur will only start supplying more trains when they can see a consistent amount of coal being produced each month to fill them. I do believe 44KT clean coal is being produced each month and that will ramp up to 66-77KT by Easter if they can recruit a full crew of surface operators and Mega can do double shift by then. NS should start sending 4 trains by April and BEN will have to stockpile and send coal by truck to join CSX trains in Buffalo or Logan. I don't see NS sending 6 trains until BEN have been seen to produce a consistent 70KT a month for a few months, so maybe late summer?
I'll go out on a limb at risk of having you pass the humble pie you are holding and suggest just 56p share price by Easter on news of 4 trains and 84p on later news of 6 trains.
Am just keeping it real. Not ramping nor deramping. No agenda but for clarity my average is 46p. If things don't go to plan by Easter then splat that pie in my fisog!

[purchaseattgetopp] 16/1/2023 06:21

Patt everyone is wrong apart from you, the word narcissistic springs to mind. It’s all about you buddy, we are all liars, living in our bens Creek bubbles

[purchaseatthetop] 16/1/2023 05:29

And your view on the ridiculous WHIreland valuation? Idiot. What has Jeff Beck got to do with BEN? Seagreen, if you are going to have any credibility, which is a challenge given your track record so far, then keep to the subject. Which is BEN.

I have given you the link to the WHIreland report. I have posted exactly where the fundamental errors and false accounting is on it. If you cannot even check the garbage fed to you by the BoD then who is delusional? Not me. You. Your post was pathetic.

[seagreen] 16/1/2023 02:12

RIP Jeff saw him with Eric at the Guildford Civic Hall supported by Chas and Dave....somehow the passing of a guitar master seems more important than the obsessive paranoid ramblings of a shorter deramper who struggles to spell the word accountant

[purchaseatthetop] 15/1/2023 15:25

Seagreen. They now have a link to it on the BEN site.
Stop trying to pretend I do not understand exactly how the accounting treatment works.
Go and look at the report. Check what I say. See if I am right.

[seagreen] 15/1/2023 15:20

Cheers Patt I did try but will have another bash.All joking aside the broker particular the analyst) the nomad and the accountants are fairly respected......there comes a point and no offence when you are imagining conspiracy theories when none exist. I know a lot of these guys they would not put their reputations on the line and risk losing their careers and risk their companies being shut down.You are suggesting wholesale collective fraud.I know Zac too he is a top man and utterly charming.You are protesting a tad too much, when there is a huge chance you simply do not have the facts to back up your statements made up from fundamentally a lack of basic accounting training.But thanks for the advice on wh Ireland.I would close that "sell" (which is the same as a short not sure your point there) before you lose your shirt

[purchaseattgetopp] 15/1/2023 11:54

RNS Number : 6525M
Bens Creek Group PLC
13 January 2023

13 January 2023



Bens Creek Group plc



("Bens Creek", the "Group" or the "Company")



Highwall miner update



Bens Creek Group plc (AIM:BEN), the owner of a metallurgical coal mine in North America supplying the steel industry, announces that, further to the Company's announcement on 22 December 2022, it has signed an amendment to its agreement with its highwall mining contractor Mega Highwall Mining LLC ("MHW") to confirm the provision and delivery of a second highwall miner, unit 77, by the end of this month.



The amended contract with MHW continues to, under a right of first refusal clause, give the Company a right but no obligation to an additional, third highwall miner from MHW should Bens Creek wish to exercise it.



Mobilisation of the components of unit 77 commenced yesterday and some equipment has already arrived on site. All required benching is complete and once the highwall miner has been re-assembled production is expected to start during February 2023.