Big Food Grp. Share Discussion Threads

[andysand] 27/7/2004 12:43

Yes kingdwg, I think so too. I don't trade often, I wait till I am sure the price is right then hold for a week or until target is reached. In this case, I believe 90p+ will be reached shortly though I expect it to go higher. I will be out at 90p though for safety.


Andy

[andysand] 27/7/2004 12:40

LOL 15p! Not in the near future , that's for sure! It's going back up to 90p.


Andy

[kingdwg] 27/7/2004 12:40

Looks like you caught it Andy, I might have put a few more in under 80 for a quick trade but it's moved up pretty rapidly.

[goodfella] 27/7/2004 12:29

Print of 79 should place another 0 in the P and F chart and give sell signal target 15p

[andysand] 27/7/2004 12:24

Topped up at 80.9p. This should be the bottom. However, I have an order on the books at 76p just in case:)


Andy

[andysand] 27/7/2004 10:52

At the moment, it is just charts that are affecting the price. It is VERY volatile which makes it ideal for trading. I shorted at 95p and have now closed and gone long at 83p. I suspect it may still fall to 80p so I have left half the pot available to buy in again if it does. I prefer to be long though in case of a sudden take over bid!

Andy

[caribbean] 26/7/2004 21:33

See the trades today, some have a lot of faith, will it be well founded? Me thinks someones out there ready to pounce!

[bigface] 26/7/2004 19:48

Kingdwg - you need strong nerves here. My instict is that (even if trading stays the same) BFP is worth 110 - 120pps, but the city doesn't have to have faith and the trend is their friend as they say.

I was pretty peeved as I traded an out position of 95p but really felt that it was undervalued at 95p and held. I have been here before and BFP is in much much better shape than it was. I am going to risk it as I think the market is playing games to bring in the bidder.

At 84p I want to keep buying, but frankly I have massively overbought as it is and so much that I was unable to trade Abbey toady beyond 1000 shares. Ready to buy at 540 this pm (up to 560 before my lunch break ended!! ) - shot accross to bfp to see what funds IU could pull out and couln't face the loss - difficult times!!

Still Courts was up .05p more to come!!

Mr "take a chance" bigface.

[bigface] 26/7/2004 19:41

goodpoint re: ANL goodfella - being stiched up there but only holding 1000 shares.

[kingdwg] 26/7/2004 16:13

Still holding on, I was in when Booker got taken over before and came out really well in the end.

[old crow] 26/7/2004 13:36

Yes am holding a few ITF
Hoping to increase on any falls, looks a solid company.

Keep Crowing

[goodfella] 26/7/2004 13:14

BF

Santender shares at 7.74 from 800 at offer price

[bigface] 26/7/2004 13:10

I am preoccupied with this curious gem as it falls again. Mysterious and beyond me - perhaps the reason is as inane as charting?

Will look at ITF (have you got any)

Also looking at Abbey Nat at moment as it is trading at 500million below the SCH offer price (though all depends on the value of SCH shares)

[old crow] 26/7/2004 12:52

Bigface,kingdwg
Since i last posted and mentioned ITF
nearly all buys and it's up 12 points since i bought,
good position in Cakes.
any thoughts

Keep Crowing

[bigface] 26/7/2004 12:44

Thanks for the tip

[goodfella] 26/7/2004 12:39

Charts now looking extremely bearish

[put it all on red] 25/7/2004 20:20

Bigface, sorry if I upset you, just making what I thought was a valid and useful point.

[bigface] 24/7/2004 19:29

I will look at the point you make bigboyo - I tend to agree.

[bigface] 24/7/2004 19:02

Put it all on red.

Ok I'll just forget the buys and sells and and assume that when the price rises the numbers in both columns are buys and if they are down then they are all sells.

Thanks

[bigboyo] 24/7/2004 10:18

goodfella misses one big point

booker has intrinisic value especially as it serves the convenience sector where the big boys are muscling in --- not bad news because the market grows as people become used to the concept of local shopping again

more independents are converting their newsagents into C stores and this in the long term is good news for booker

if booker was sold then the the remainig entity would have net cash and the interest being paid would revert to pre-tax profits

sell booker !

[put it all on red] 23/7/2004 21:45

Bigface, I'm not convinced all your 'buys' are real buys.

Haven't looked in detail, but for example the 859,138 is a 'P' trade, which can be worked over a period of time, so the bid/offer at the time it is reported does not tell you if it was a buy or a sell. In fact, because the share price was falling today it is more likely to have been a sell.
(remember advfn just uses the bid/offer at the time of reporting to guess if its a buy or sell, and its not always reliable)

If all your 'buys' are correct, how come we are down so much today?

[bigface] 23/7/2004 20:22

To think I could have got out at a profit instead of buying more this pm.

Looking back, as BFP rose from 24p to 180p a share I, personally, thought the rise a little overdone, but at 89p the balance of risk/reward is very different.

goodfella thinks BFP will become insolvent and a buyer will pick it up for 15p a share - he is entitled to his opinion and, presumably, if he is as confident about his analysis as he seems to be, is likely to have taken a large short position on the company.

My belief, having held Iceland, and then BFP, on and off, since 1996, is that the current volumn suggests that someone is building, or increasing a stake. It would not surprise me if an RNS confirms that shortly.

Buys over 100,000

125,000
178,365
250,000
400,000
500,000
575,000
859,138
1,000,000

Sells over 100,000

150,000
250,000
250,000


Booker, Winward Foods and Iceland all have the potential to improve their performance. Having had direct experience of Bookers myself, I appreciate, that the Wholesale Business, in particular, has enormous scope for improvement.

I acknowledge BFP is a risk - nearly everything is, but 5bn in Turnover is worth having despite reduced margins and remember BFP's sales declined overall by only 0.5%.

There is a big buyer out there, that is obvious from the pattern of trades, however, if its Bauger he may well have a go at it at 105p a share.

I have traded BFP many times and at a good profit (about 20% overall) but I am never complacent and people never really know what is going to happen - not even you goodfella.

[goodfella] 23/7/2004 15:51

spadam

Its not the decreasing slaes but the declining margins and the increasingly competetive climate.

1% decline in margins will wipe out the entire free cash flow and they will be unable to service the debt.

Of course a csh ricj predator would buy an asset rich company for the cash flow as the debt will not be a problem, but they will get it on the brink of bankruptcy not at thses levels.

Declining margins increasing interest rates are a recipe for disaster to a heavily geared company

[spadam] 23/7/2004 15:42

Goodfella, BFP ain't Jarvis.

I agree that there is too much debt, and this creates finacial gearing instability. but the TS whilst poor was not abysmal, brokers still looking for £50m. Plus Baugur. thats why I can't see lower than say 70p, and even then.....

[bigface] 23/7/2004 13:57

goodfella you are a contradiction in terms, but you knew that already. Thanks for the historical stuff - I bought BFP for 28p back then and your 15p didn't happen.

The snippet in the share mag is probably responsible for the1.3m sales making a big play of directors buys at 101p IGNORING THE FACT THAT THEY PAID 86 RECENTLY

HOSKINS FD HAS 1,600,000 shares and Grimsby CEO 1,000,000.

I have increased my holding by 25% on the basis that there is no real reason for the fall except AN OVERALL FALL IN SALES OF 0.5% and I have recently sold out of BB & ANL for nice profits.

Not for the faint hearted but Booker is worth the current market cap in my opinion. Stuart Rose still holds 250K shares according to Motley Fool